Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION on the recorded book; XLE SB85 declined on payoff (1.49x < 1.5x, W3); SKYY queue tape-filled but unrecorded (W6); anticipate slot: none eligible
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 65.24 | NO ACTION | 65.24 | 64.31 | 65.80 (+0.9%) | 66.63 (+2.1%) | 68.31 (+4.7%) | The energy ETF flipped from AVOID 42 to STRONG BUY 85 on a +2.97% oil-shock day (Hormuz shipping attacks, hurricane output cut), but the model's own 4-week estimate pays only 1.49x the risk to its stop, just under the book's 1.5x bar, so it is watched rather than bought. OPERATIONAL: W3 Payoff_4W = (66.63 - 65.24) / (65.24 - 64.31) = 1.49x < 1.5x; stop is 0.64 ATR (sub-0.75, provisional denominator). Y5 reclaim test PASSED (65.24 > 63.66 cut stop), so it is re-eligible. Single-print flip on an event-driven gap and close near the day high (65.47). Re-arm: a 2nd consecutive bullish print >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the decline. CONTINGENT: if the unrecorded 153-sh lot was NOT sold at the 10-08 open (exit would have filled ~64.51), HOLD it on new stop 64.31 - the exit basis (close below 63.66 + AVOID) is invalidated. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 65.60 | SELL ALL | 65.60 | 65.75 | 65.75 (+0.2%) | 67.22 (+2.5%) | 70.62 (+7.7%) | The AI & tech ETF closed below its written stop (65.60 < 65.75) on the second straight NO TRADE print, as the AI/chip trade sold off for a second day. OPERATIONAL: contingent only - if the unrecorded-sh lot (10-01/10-02 card, basis ~66.33) is held, SELL at the 10-09 open (L2/L3). Exposure; mark ~-Reprice if the open gaps > ~1.5%. Y5: not re-eligible until it closes back above 65.75. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 200.48 | SELL ALL | 200.48 | 208.68 | 201.60 (+0.6%) | 204.65 (+2.1%) | 207.33 (+3.4%) | The biotech ETF is still below the stop it was cut on (200.48 < 208.68) and slid another 1.41%; the label is NO TRADE after AVOID 59. OPERATIONAL: contingent only - if the unrecorded-sh lot is still held, SELL at the 10-09 open. Exposure. Y5 re-entry block stands. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 170.14 | WATCH | 169.98 | 169.30 | 171.54 (+0.9%) | 173.57 (+2.1%) | 182.89 (+7.6%) | The cloud ETF's buy setup dissolved (BUY 69 -> NO TRADE) the same session the 10-07 queue went live. OPERATIONAL: the 28-sh GTC limit @170.78 would have filled at the 10-08 open of 169.98 (opened below the limit; low 168.93). Per W6 it is NOT treated as held until input/sectoretfportfolio.json records it. If placed and filled: HOLD 28 on stop 169.30 (close 170.14 above; mark ~+). If not placed: CANCEL - conviction 0 < 65, no re-queue. The unrecorded 61-sh lot (stop 164.25) also holds if filled. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 73.03 | WATCH | — | 71.94 | 73.58 | 75.12 | 78.38 | Magnificent Seven ETF decayed to NO TRADE (SB100 -> W54 -> NT0) but closed 73.03, above the 71.94 stop. Contingent hold of the unrecorded; no add. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 773.93 | WATCH | — | 766.13 | 776.62 | 787.28 | 793.18 | S&P 500 ETF faded to NO TRADE (ANT83 -> W61 -> NT0) and closed 773.93, above the 766.13 stop. Contingent hold of the unrecorded 6-sh lot; anticipate slot not eligible. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 747.58 | WATCH | — | 736.27 | 752.62 | 761.78 | 774.38 | Nasdaq-100 ETF fell 1.34% on the AI-trade selloff; 2nd NO TRADE print but close 747.58 is above the 736.27 stop. Contingent hold of the unrecorded 6-sh lot; not PROFIT_ARMED, so the 2xNT tick does not apply. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 197.78 | WATCH | — | — | 200.17 | 206.29 | 213.38 | NO TRADE 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (2nd print after the ANT run); tech led the downside (-1.79%). Re-arm: BUY >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x, RSI < 75. · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 150.89 | WATCH | — | — | 150.92 | 151.17 | 162.67 | NO TRADE 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (2nd print); -2.30%. Re-arm: BUY >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 277.57 | WATCH | 277.57 | 279.77 | 280.95 (+1.2%) | 288.36 (+3.9%) | 287.91 (+3.7%) | Bearish RallySell_BearTrend AVOID 66; long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 42.01 | WATCH | 42.01 | 43.23 | 42.56 (+1.3%) | 44.88 (+6.8%) | 45.79 (+9.0%) | Bearish RallySell_BearTrend AVOID 55; long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 30.50 | WATCH | 30.50 | 31.84 | 31.27 (+2.5%) | 32.63 (+7.0%) | 37.33 (+22.4%) | Bearish RallySell_BearTrend AVOID 49; long-only book, so stand aside. Quality gate: OVERVALUED_VS_RI, Quality_Pass False. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 378.62 | WATCH | 378.62 | 378.62 | 381.62 (+0.8%) | 384.83 (+1.6%) | 392.49 (+3.7%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID 69 with a zero-width stop (Entry == Stop == Close); long-only book, stand aside. X7 caveat on this family. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 168.16 | WATCH | 168.16 | 168.16 | 169.20 (+0.6%) | 168.12 (-0.0%) | 166.78 (-0.8%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID 54 with a zero-width stop (Entry == Stop == Close); long-only book, stand aside. X7 caveat on this family. · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 111.71 | WATCH | 111.71 | 111.71 | 112.06 (+0.3%) | 112.54 (+0.7%) | 114.47 (+2.5%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID 64 with a zero-width stop (Entry == Stop == Close); long-only book, stand aside. X7 caveat on this family. · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
66 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.275 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.