Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 1 QUEUED (SKYY @170.78) / DISPOSE 0 on the recorded book; MAGS queue withdrawn; anticipate slot: SPY technically eligible, declined (setup dissolved, W6)
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 170.78 | BUY — QUEUED @170.78 | 170.78 | 169.30 | 172.31 (+0.9%) | 174.15 (+2.0%) | 181.75 (+6.4%) | The cloud-computing ETF has printed bullish three sessions running (ANTICIPATE 85 -> STRONG BUY 78 -> BUY 69). It held its 52-week breakout area on a red, rate-jittery tape, and the model's entry sits at the close with a 2.28x four-week payoff (Est_4W 174.15 vs a 169.30 stop). OPERATIONAL: GTC buy-limit at the printed Entry_Price 170.78 (Entry_Distance 0, no chase). Sizing: 49.24% x conservative NAV (V7) x 20% =, / 170.78 = 28.3, floored to. Stop 169.30 is only 0.50 ATR (W3 corollary: provisional payoff denominator). Conviction is decaying ->69, and FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy carries a -1 bias. W: SKIP if the unrecorded SKYY from the 10-01 card was filled; in that case it is a hold with stop 164.25, not an add. Expires 10-12. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 66.67 | WATCH | — | 65.75 | 66.94 | 68.04 | 72.38 | The AI & tech ETF collapsed from ANTICIPATE 93 to NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction') on the red tape, but its 66.67 close is still above the 65.75 stop. If the 10-02 card filled at 66.33, the mark is +. OPERATIONAL: hold if filled. This is the first NO TRADE print, so tick (d) needs a second; not armed. No add (W). · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 777.22 | BUY-STOP | 777.22 | 766.13 | 780.94 (+0.5%) | 789.52 (+1.6%) | 789.98 (+1.6%) | The S&P 500 ETF eased off its record to 777.22 (WATCH 61) and stays above the 766.13 stop. If filled at 769.69, the mark is +. OPERATIONAL: hold if filled. Anticipate slot: technically eligible (ANT in 2 of the last 3, cv61 >= 55), but declined because the anticipation setup has dissolved: the latest print is WATCH FailedBreakdown, cv decays ->61 and is below the 65 acquire floor, the-sh lot is unreconciled (W), and the anticipate counterfactual is n=25, -4.82% [saved]. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 757.73 | WATCH | — | 736.27 | 760.97 | 770.37 | 782.79 | The Nasdaq-100 ETF slipped to NO TRADE (ANT75 -> NT0) at 757.73, still well above the 736.27 stop. If filled at 742.51, the mark is +. OPERATIONAL: hold if filled; one NO TRADE print; no add. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 203.34 | SELL ALL | 203.34 | 208.68 | 204.05 (+0.3%) | 208.21 (+2.4%) | 212.59 (+4.5%) | The biotech ETF is still below the stop it broke on 10-06 (203.34 < 208.68) and now prints AVOID 59 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D). OPERATIONAL: if the-sh lot is still held, SELL at the 10-08 open (L2/L3). Y5: no re-entry until a close above 208.68. Exposure. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 63.36 | SELL ALL | 63.36 | 63.66 | 63.90 (+0.9%) | 64.72 (+2.1%) | 66.40 (+4.8%) | The energy ETF's one-day reclaim failed: it closed back below the stop (63.36 < 63.66), and conviction decays W55 -> W48 -> AVOID 42. OPERATIONAL: if the-sh lot is still held, SELL at the 10-08 open (L3). Exposure. · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 154.44 | WATCH | — | — | 154.49 | 154.07 | 165.68 | The quantum ETF's anticipation run ended (ANT88 -> ANT83 -> NO TRADE, -1.87%). Slot ineligible (cv0 < 55). Re-arm: BUY >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 201.39 | WATCH | — | — | 202.09 | 208.40 | 218.48 | The tech sector ETF dropped from ANTICIPATE 73 to NO TRADE with RSI 69.7. Re-arm: BUY >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x and RSI < 75. · news |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 277.70 | WATCH | 277.70 | 277.70 | 281.04 (+1.2%) | 288.01 (+3.7%) | 287.79 (+3.6%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID 66; long-only book, so stand aside. X7 caveat: the FailedBreakout_Down family has misfired on this book before. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 375.88 | WATCH | 375.88 | 381.18 | 380.47 (+1.2%) | 383.96 (+2.1%) | 384.57 (+2.3%) | Bearish RallySell_BearTrend AVOID 65; long-only book, so stand aside. X7 caveat: the FailedBreakout_Down family has misfired on this book before. · news |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 167.84 | WATCH | 167.84 | 171.61 | 168.35 (+0.3%) | 168.93 (+0.6%) | 172.73 (+2.9%) | Bearish RallySell_BearTrend AVOID 66; long-only book, so stand aside. X7 caveat: the FailedBreakout_Down family has misfired on this book before. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 168.81 | WATCH | 168.81 | 168.81 | 169.57 (+0.5%) | 168.87 (+0.0%) | 167.68 (-0.7%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID 64; long-only book, so stand aside. X7 caveat: the FailedBreakout_Down family has misfired on this book before. · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 81.70 | WATCH | 81.70 | 81.70 | 81.95 (+0.3%) | 82.63 (+1.1%) | 85.08 (+4.1%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID 66; long-only book, so stand aside. X7 caveat: the FailedBreakout_Down family has misfired on this book before. · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 111.36 | WATCH | 111.36 | 111.36 | 111.69 (+0.3%) | 111.64 (+0.3%) | 112.79 (+1.3%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID 54; long-only book, so stand aside. X7 caveat: the FailedBreakout_Down family has misfired on this book before. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 43.04 | WATCH | 43.04 | 44.16 | 43.32 (+0.7%) | 44.41 (+3.2%) | 48.71 (+13.2%) | Bearish RallySell_BearTrend AVOID 45; long-only book, so stand aside. X7 caveat: the FailedBreakout_Down family has misfired on this book before. · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | Destiny Tech100 Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. DXYZ: quality gate (OVERVALUED_VS_RI, Quality_Pass False). |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
63 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.275 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.