Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE AIQ 73 + SPY 6 at market 10-12 open; DISPOSE none on recorded book; MAGS/SKYY declined to WATCH; anticipate slot: none eligible
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 66.60 | BUY | 66.60 | 66.10 | 66.76 (+0.2%) | 67.80 (+1.8%) | 71.22 (+6.9%) | Fresh BUY 68 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D reclaim of the 65.75 stop with a 2.40x 4-week payoff, on a tech-rebound tape; valuation blind (ETF). Conditional: place only if the 126-sh contingent lot was exited at the 10-09 open / never taken, else hold that lot on stop 66.10 and skip (L7/W). = 49.24% x x 20% / 66.60. Stop 66.10 (0.50 ATR, provisional W3). <=4wk swing (SE-2/S4). Y5 reclaim met. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 778.57 | BUY | 778.57 | 775.14 | 781.82 (+0.4%) | 789.47 (+1.4%) | 787.76 (+1.2%) | Fresh BUY 66 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D on the S&P's weekly-gain close with a 3.18x 4-week payoff; valuation blind (ETF). = 49.24% x x 20% / 778.57. Stop 775.14 (0.53 ATR, provisional W3). Inverted forward (12W 787.76 < 4W 789.47) -> exit inside 4 weeks (SE-2). Bank earnings + CPI next week. · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (Z4: no sector read). |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 30.74 | WATCH | 30.74 | 30.74 | 31.45 (+2.3%) | 32.88 (+7.0%) | 37.20 (+21.0%) | AVOID 49 FailedBreakout_Down_20D - long-only, stand aside (X7/Y2 zero-width stop on FailedBreakout_Down). Quality gate: OVERVALUED_VS_RI, Quality_Pass False. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 751.27 | WATCH | 751.27 | 746.87 | 755.32 (+0.5%) | 757.39 (+0.8%) | 775.63 (+3.2%) | WATCH 61 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D - below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. Contingent : hold on stop 736.27. · news |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (Z4: no sector read). |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 559.40 | WATCH | 559.40 | 551.53 | 552.70 (-1.2%) | 550.18 (-1.6%) | 579.73 (+3.6%) | WATCH 54 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D - below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 384.58 | WATCH | 384.58 | 384.58 | 386.83 (+0.6%) | 392.05 (+1.9%) | 405.97 (+5.6%) | AVOID 75 FailedBreakout_Down_20D - long-only, stand aside (X7/Y2 zero-width stop on FailedBreakout_Down). · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 603.33 | WATCH | 603.33 | 596.03 | 600.48 (-0.5%) | 606.43 (+0.5%) | 648.35 (+7.5%) | WATCH 63 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D - below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 206.49 | SELL | 206.49 | 208.68 | 206.80 (+0.2%) | 210.45 (+1.9%) | 212.25 (+2.8%) | Still below the recorded 208.68 stop (206.49) and the row turned AVOID 65 FailedBreakout_Down - exit basis stands. SELL at the 10-12 open only if still held (ADR-0019 unrecorded lot). Y5 block on re-entry until close > 208.68. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 153.77 | WATCH | 153.77 | 153.77 | 155.02 (+0.8%) | 160.95 (+4.7%) | 163.24 (+6.2%) | AVOID 75 FailedBreakout_Down_20D - long-only, stand aside (X7/Y2 zero-width stop on FailedBreakout_Down). · news |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 54.73 | WATCH | 54.73 | 54.73 | 55.07 (+0.6%) | 55.73 (+1.8%) | 56.91 (+4.0%) | AVOID 85 FailedBreakout_Down_20D - long-only, stand aside (X7/Y2 zero-width stop on FailedBreakout_Down). · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 65.08 | WATCH | 65.08 | 64.40 | 65.55 (+0.7%) | 66.39 (+2.0%) | 68.37 (+5.1%) | SB85 -> WATCH 62; 10-08 payoff decline confirmed (-0.25%). Contingent : hold, stop raised 64.31 -> 64.40. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (Z4: no sector read). |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 170.81 | WATCH | 170.81 | 170.81 | 171.57 (+0.4%) | 170.81 (+0.0%) | 170.63 (-0.1%) | AVOID 67 FailedBreakout_Down_20D - long-only, stand aside (X7/Y2 zero-width stop on FailedBreakout_Down). · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 198.78 | WATCH | 198.78 | 197.36 | 200.88 (+1.1%) | 206.88 (+4.1%) | 213.82 (+7.6%) | WATCH 62 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D - below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (Z4: no sector read). |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 112.85 | WATCH | 112.85 | 112.85 | 113.42 (+0.5%) | 112.98 (+0.1%) | 113.19 (+0.3%) | AVOID 64 FailedBreakout_Down_20D - long-only, stand aside (X7/Y2 zero-width stop on FailedBreakout_Down). · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 41.98 | WATCH | 41.98 | 43.07 | 42.51 (+1.3%) | 44.75 (+6.6%) | 45.78 (+9.1%) | AVOID 71 RallySell_BearTrend - long-only, stand aside (X7/Y2 zero-width stop on FailedBreakout_Down). · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 152.06 | WATCH | 152.06 | 150.61 | 152.06 (+0.0%) | 154.44 (+1.6%) | 164.39 (+8.1%) | WATCH 62 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D - below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
68 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.275 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.