Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
1 ACQUIRE (XLI QUEUED GTC @168.38,), 0 DISPOSE on the recorded book; IBB B69 fails Payoff_4W (0.80x)
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 5 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 171.32 | BUY — QUEUED @168.38 | 168.38 | 165.04 | 171.93 (+2.1%) | 174.33 (+3.5%) | 174.92 (+3.9%) | Industrials printed BUY 74 on a PullbackBuy_VWAP setup, ranked #1 on the board, and closed back above EMA200 (171.32 vs 171.06). After the book's -7 cell haircut that is adj 67, and the 4-week payoff is 1.78x on a 1.16-ATR fixed_then_trail stop. The close is 1.02 ATR above the 168.38 model entry, so the order is a GTC limit at the printed Entry_Price and it fills only on a pullback (no chase). Sizing: 49.24% x x 20% / 168.38 = 29. Stop 165.04 (closing basis, SE-7). Expires 11-06 (3 sessions). Withdraw if conviction < 65. It is the first BUY after NT0 -> AV44 -> NT0, andwk (174.92) is barely above 4wk (174.33), so treat it as a <=4-week swing (SE-2). PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 4/23 on 1wk targets here (hit_4w 0.26). Est_1W is directional only (calib_1w -0.427, L5/SE-3). NFP 11-06 inside the queue window. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 155.98 | SELL | 155.98 | 164.25 | 157.56 (+1.0%) | 164.15 (+5.2%) | 180.72 (+15.9%) | Cloud rose 0.9% to 155.98 but still prints NO TRADE, below both contingent stops: 169.30 (4th close) and 164.25 (3rd close). Exit stands at the 11-04 open if the 28 + are real. Stop-discipline exit, not a downside forecast (Est_W 180.72). Y5: blocked until a close above 164.25. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 59.54 | SELL | 59.54 | 66.10 | 60.91 (+2.3%) | 63.37 (+6.4%) | 62.69 (+5.3%) | The AI and tech gauge rose 0.7% to 59.54, still under its EMA200 (59.79) and at a 17th close below the 66.10 stop, NO TRADE. Exit stands at the 11-04 open if the 73 + are real. Y5: blocked until a close above 66.10. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 68.74 | SELL | 68.74 | 71.94 | 69.42 (+1.0%) | 69.20 (+0.7%) | 71.66 (+4.2%) | Megacaps rose 0.8% to 68.74, the 9th close below the 71.94 stop, NO TRADE for a 4th snapshot. Exit stands at the 11-04 open if the lot is real. Y5: blocked until a close above 71.94. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 754.35 | SELL | 754.35 | 766.13 | 753.26 (-0.1%) | 755.87 (+0.2%) | 774.60 (+2.7%) | The S&P fund rose 0.3% to 754.35 and prints NO TRADE, below both contingent stops: 775.14 and 766.13 (3rd close). Exit stands at the 11-04 open if the + are real. Y5: blocked until a close above 766.13. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 685.28 | SELL | 685.28 | 736.27 | 700.28 (+2.2%) | 709.79 (+3.6%) | 721.56 (+5.3%) | The Nasdaq-100 fund rose 0.6% to 685.28 on the chip rebound but stays below EMA200 (689.28) and well under the 736.27 stop, NO TRADE. Exit stands at the 11-04 open if the lot is real. Y5: blocked until a close above 736.27. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 215.47 | WATCH | 215.47 | 208.68 | 216.70 (+0.6%) | 217.57 (+1.0%) | 222.81 (+3.4%) | Biotech recovered NO TRADE -> BUY 69 (adj 68) on a +0.8% day, but new money is declined: Payoff_4W is 0.80x < 1.5x (W3), on the engine's constant 0.50-ATR stop (212.85; Y2). Hold the contingent if held: 215.47 is 3.3% above the 208.68 closing stop. Re-arm: adj >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 66.68 | WATCH | 66.68 | 64.40 | 66.83 (+0.2%) | 66.73 (+0.1%) | 69.90 (+4.8%) | Energy slipped B66 -> WATCH 52 (-0.85%) even as oil jumped early on the reported Iran strike. Hold the contingent if held: 66.68 is 3.5% above the 64.40 closing stop. Below floor for new money. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 154.97 | WATCH | 154.97 | 152.59 | 155.84 (+0.6%) | 159.53 (+2.9%) | 159.02 (+2.6%) | Biotech (equal-weight) WATCH 51 (adj 50), +1.9%, below the 65 floor. Re-arm: adj >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 279.79 | WATCH | 279.79 | 277.83 | 280.45 (+0.2%) | 282.73 (+1.1%) | 283.42 (+1.3%) | Small-caps faded W54 -> W36 (adj 35), +0.2%. Re-arm: raw >= 66 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The 11-02 STRONG BUY 100 collapsed to NO TRADE 0 in one session (-2.07%); the 11-02 WATCH (payoff -0.01x) is confirmed. Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SB83 -> NO TRADE 0 (-0.64%), the 3rd flip in 4 snapshots (SB97, NT0, SB83, NT0); the 11-02 WATCH is confirmed. Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 359.26 | WATCH | 359.26 | 359.26 | 363.43 (+1.2%) | 365.92 (+1.9%) | 366.64 (+2.1%) | AVOID 54 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 40.57 | WATCH | 40.57 | 40.57 | 40.77 (+0.5%) | 42.44 (+4.6%) | 42.95 (+5.9%) | AVOID 61 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 132.18 | WATCH | 132.18 | 135.49 | 135.31 (+2.4%) | 133.71 (+1.2%) | 143.47 (+8.5%) | AVOID 69 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only, so stand aside. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 26.65 | WATCH | 26.65 | 26.65 | 26.88 (+0.9%) | 27.21 (+2.1%) | 31.07 (+16.6%) | AVOID 63 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. DXYZ is the one priced valuation row (UNDERVALUED, Quality_Pass False). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
136 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.