Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION: 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE on the recorded book; XLP SB100, XLF SB83, XLE B66 all fail Payoff_4W 1.5x
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 5 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 154.55 | SELL | 154.55 | 164.25 | 155.88 (+0.9%) | 163.92 (+6.1%) | 176.14 (+14.0%) | Cloud fell another 3.3% to 154.55 and prints NO TRADE, below both contingent stops: 169.30 (3rd close) and 164.25 (2nd close). Exit stands at the 11-03 open if the 28 + are real. Stop-discipline exit, not a downside forecast (Est_W 176.14). Y5: blocked until a close above 164.25. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 59.13 | SELL | 59.13 | 66.10 | 60.51 (+2.3%) | 63.53 (+7.4%) | 63.84 (+8.0%) | The AI and tech gauge fell 1.7% to 59.13, now below its EMA200 (59.79) and at a 16th close below the 66.10 stop. Exit stands at the 11-03 open if the 73 + are real. Y5: blocked until a close above 66.10. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 68.19 | SELL | 68.19 | 71.94 | 68.92 (+1.1%) | 68.57 (+0.6%) | 71.25 (+4.5%) | Megacaps fell 0.4% to 68.19, the 8th close below the 71.94 stop, and print NO TRADE. Exit stands at the 11-03 open if the lot is real. Y5: blocked until a close above 71.94. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 752.10 | SELL | 752.10 | 766.13 | 749.71 (-0.3%) | 754.96 (+0.4%) | 774.39 (+3.0%) | The S&P fund fell 0.5% to 752.10 and prints NO TRADE, below both contingent stops: 775.14 and 766.13 (2nd close). Exit stands at the 11-03 open if the + are real. Y5: blocked until a close above 766.13. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 681.09 | SELL | 681.09 | 736.27 | 694.25 (+1.9%) | 714.11 (+4.8%) | 707.12 (+3.8%) | The Nasdaq-100 fund fell 1.4% to 681.09, its first close below EMA200 (689.22) on this run of anchors, and well under the 736.27 stop. Exit stands at the 11-03 open if the lot is real. Y5: blocked until a close above 736.27. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 213.79 | WATCH | 213.79 | 208.68 | 215.41 (+0.8%) | 216.95 (+1.5%) | 221.66 (+3.7%) | Biotech fell 1.8% and the signal dropped from BUY 72 to NO TRADE 0, but the close of 213.79 is still 2.4% above the 208.68 stop: hold the contingent if held, on the closing stop. A second NO TRADE needs watching. Not eligible for new money at conviction 0. |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 67.25 | WATCH | 67.25 | 64.40 | 67.80 (+0.8%) | 68.08 (+1.2%) | 70.30 (+4.5%) | Energy printed BUY 66 (adj 65, exactly the floor) on a -4.0% day as Brent fell 7.9% on hopes of Iran talks, so the headline cuts against the label. New money is declined: Payoff_4W is 0.99x < 1.5x (W3) on a 0.50-ATR stop (Y2). Hold the contingent if held: 67.25 is 4.4% above the 64.40 stop. Re-arm: adj >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x once oil settles. · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 90.83 | WATCH | 90.63 | 87.33 | 91.13 (+0.6%) | 90.60 (-0.0%) | 89.51 (-1.2%) | Staples are the strongest row on the board at STRONG BUY 100, and the day's rotation out of tech confirms the bid, but the model sees no room left: Payoff_4W is -0.01x < 1.5x (W3), Est_W 89.51 sits below the close (SE-2) and this is the first print at or above 80 (X2). Buy-stop 90.63 is only 0.13 ATR under the close. Re-arm: Payoff_4W >= 1.5x on an entry that does not pay up. · news |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 57.56 | WATCH | 57.37 | 55.53 | 57.73 (+0.6%) | 57.54 (+0.3%) | 57.58 (+0.4%) | Financials rose 1.9% to STRONG BUY 83, a third flip in three sessions (SB97, NT0, SB83), so the signal is not stable (X2). Payoff_4W is 0.09x < 1.5x (W3) with a flat Est_W 57.58 (SE-2). Close is 4.3% above the withdrawn 55.20 limit. Re-arm: two consecutive prints >= 80 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 279.14 | WATCH | 277.44 | 272.57 | 279.77 (+0.8%) | 283.36 (+2.1%) | 284.36 (+2.5%) | Small-caps flat at WATCH 54 on PullbackBuy_VWAP, adj 47 after the -7 cell bias, payoff 1.22x. Re-arm: raw >= 72 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 152.05 | WATCH | 152.05 | 149.68 | 153.20 (+0.8%) | 155.72 (+2.4%) | 156.95 (+3.2%) | Biotech fell 2.5%; WATCH 45 (adj 44) is below the floor. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 25.88 | WATCH | 25.88 | 25.88 | 26.23 (+1.4%) | 26.55 (+2.6%) | 29.99 (+15.9%) | AVOID 63 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D). Refreshed fair value reads UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.52) but Quality_Pass is False and valuation does not time an entry. Long-only, stand aside. |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. STRONG BUY 90 lasted two prints and the decline on 10-30 cost nothing (-0.15%). |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 453.65 | WATCH | 453.65 | 492.77 | 460.71 (+1.6%) | 482.24 (+6.3%) | 501.58 (+10.6%) | AVOID 61 (RallySell_BearTrend), -3.79%, 2nd close below EMA200. Long-only, stand aside. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. -2.71%, closed below EMA200 (522.38). |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 174.22 | WATCH | 176.81 | 194.39 | 178.54 (+1.0%) | 183.41 (+3.7%) | 191.92 (+8.5%) | AVOID 86 (BreakdownDown_20D), -2.95%, sitting on EMA200 (174.20). Long-only, stand aside. |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 130.68 | WATCH | 130.68 | 138.13 | 133.15 (+1.9%) | 132.42 (+1.3%) | 142.37 (+8.9%) | AVOID 63 (RallySell_BearTrend), -2.35%. Long-only, stand aside. |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 361.65 | WATCH | 361.65 | 361.65 | 365.37 (+1.0%) | 370.77 (+2.5%) | 372.41 (+3.0%) | AVOID 63 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D), +1.65% bounce. Long-only, stand aside. |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 118.16 | WATCH | 118.16 | 121.54 | 118.95 (+0.7%) | 118.91 (+0.6%) | 120.24 (+1.8%) | AVOID 65 (ReversalDown_Overbought) on a +2.41% day, the board leader. Long-only, stand aside. |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 39.89 | WATCH | 39.89 | 39.89 | 40.17 (+0.7%) | 41.78 (+4.7%) | 42.02 (+5.3%) | AVOID 63 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D), -0.87%. Long-only, stand aside. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
131 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.