Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION: 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE on the recorded book; XLF queue withdrawn; XLV SB90, XLP B77, IBB B72 all fail Payoff_4W 1.5x
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 5 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 159.77 | SELL | 159.77 | 164.25 | 160.60 (+0.5%) | 168.40 (+5.4%) | 180.67 (+13.1%) | Cloud fell another 4.6% to 159.77 in the AI-spending sell-off and is now below both contingent stops: the 61-share lot (164.25) broke for the first time and the 28-share lot (169.30) for the second close. This is a closing-stop exit (SE-7), not a downside forecast: the live row is WATCH 52 and Est_W is +13.1%, so the L2 negative-wk leg is not met. Execute at the 11-02 open if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). Y5 re-entry needs a close > 164.25. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 60.14 | SELL | 60.14 | 66.10 | 61.65 (+2.5%) | 64.76 (+7.7%) | 63.70 (+5.9%) | The AI and tech gauge fell another 4.4% to 60.14 and printed a BreakdownDown_20D AVOID 63, its 15th close below the 66.10 stop. Closing-stop exit on an unrecorded contingent lot (SE-7/L2), repeated from 10-29 because no fill or skip was recorded. Execute at the 11-02 open if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 690.49 | SELL | 690.49 | 736.27 | 704.07 (+2.0%) | 713.56 (+3.3%) | 718.83 (+4.1%) | The Nasdaq-100 fund fell 3.5% to 690.49 and printed a BreakdownDown_20D AVOID 81, well below the 736.27 stop. Closing-stop exit on an unrecorded contingent lot (SE-7/L2), repeated from 10-29. Execute at the 11-02 open if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 755.72 | SELL | 755.72 | 766.13 | 757.00 (+0.2%) | 763.75 (+1.1%) | 783.84 (+3.7%) | The S&P fund fell 1.8% to 755.72, below both contingent stops: the 766. broke for the first time and the 775. stayed broken. The live row is NO TRADE 0 and Est_W is +3.7%, so this is a closing-stop exit (SE-7), not an L2 exit. Execute at the 11-02 open if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). Y5 re-entry needs a close > 766.13. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 68.48 | SELL | 68.48 | 71.94 | 69.24 (+1.1%) | 70.45 (+2.9%) | 72.42 (+5.8%) | Megacaps fell 1.8% to 68.48, the 7th close below the 71.94 stop, with four straight NO TRADE 0 prints. Closing-stop exit on an unrecorded contingent lot (SE-7/L2), repeated from 10-29. Execute at the 11-02 open if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 217.61 | WATCH | 217.61 | 208.68 | 219.41 (+0.8%) | 220.43 (+1.3%) | 223.40 (+2.7%) | Biotech was nearly flat (-0.11%) on a -1.8% S&P day and closes 4.3% above the 208.68 stop: hold the contingent if held. BUY 72 (adj 71) is declined for new money: Payoff_4W is 1.05x < 1.5x (W3). Re-arm: adj >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 70.02 | WATCH | 70.02 | 64.40 | 69.97 (-0.1%) | 71.18 (+1.7%) | 72.98 (+4.2%) | Energy led the board (+1.91%) with XOM/CVX at record highs and oil higher, and closes 8.7% above the 64.40 stop: hold the contingent if held. The WATCH 43 row is a BreakoutUp_52W below the floor, with payoff 0.30x, so no add. |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 184.87 | WATCH | 185.43 | 177.67 | 185.59 (+0.1%) | 186.51 (+0.6%) | 185.78 (+0.2%) | Health care held at STRONG BUY 90 for a second print with a buy-stop 0.16 ATR above the close, so it is not a chase, but Payoff_4W is 0.14x < 1.5x (W3), Est_W 185.78 is flat (SE-2) and RSI is 72.5. Re-arm: Payoff_4W >= 1.5x on an entry that does not pay up. |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 89.42 | WATCH | 89.42 | 88.68 | 89.85 (+0.5%) | 89.55 (+0.1%) | 89.12 (-0.3%) | Staples printed a second consecutive BUY, adj 76), which meets the first leg of the 10-29 re-arm, but Payoff_4W is 0.18x < 1.5x (W3) with Est_4W 89.55 almost at the entry, so the second leg fails. Re-arm stays: BUY adj >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 279.33 | WATCH | 277.53 | 272.69 | 280.20 (+1.0%) | 283.88 (+2.3%) | 285.34 (+2.8%) | WATCH 54 PullbackBuy_VWAP (adj 47 on the -7 cell), payoff 1.31x; below the floor. Re-arm: raw >= 72 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 25.53 | WATCH | 25.53 | 23.16 | 26.24 (+2.8%) | 26.49 (+3.8%) | 29.04 (+13.7%) | WATCH 58 ReversalUp_Oversold, below the floor; the quality gate also blocks a new entry (OVERVALUED, Quality_Pass False). |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. The 10-29 BUY - ANTICIPATE 72 lasted one print. |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction, on a -8.24% day that closed below EMA200. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction, on a -6.98% day that closed at EMA200. |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 179.51 | WATCH | 179.51 | — | 183.66 (+2.3%) | 192.72 (+7.4%) | 197.52 (+10.0%) | AVOID 90 (BreakdownDown_20D, -4.89%); long-only book, stand aside. |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 133.83 | WATCH | 133.83 | — | 136.31 (+1.9%) | 136.25 (+1.8%) | 145.04 (+8.4%) | AVOID 86 (BreakdownDown_20D, -5.18%); long-only book, stand aside. |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 355.78 | WATCH | 355.78 | — | 360.37 (+1.3%) | 361.74 (+1.7%) | 365.23 (+2.7%) | AVOID 82 (BreakdownDown_20D, -3.47%, RSI 30); long-only book, stand aside. |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 517.13 | WATCH | 517.13 | — | 515.31 (-0.4%) | 509.39 (-1.5%) | 517.44 (+0.1%) | AVOID 44 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, stand aside. |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 167.40 | WATCH | 167.40 | — | 167.62 (+0.1%) | 170.73 (+2.0%) | 170.95 (+2.1%) | AVOID 44 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only book, stand aside. |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 40.24 | WATCH | 40.24 | — | 40.50 (+0.6%) | 41.05 (+2.0%) | 41.54 (+3.2%) | AVOID 52 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only book, stand aside. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
126 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.