Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
QUEUED XLF @55.20 (SB97 PullbackBuy_VWAP adj 90, 2.29x); XLV queue withdrawn; XLP B66 declined (1.38x, first print); 0 DISPOSE on the recorded book
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 5 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 56.94 | BUY — QUEUED @55.20 | 55.20 | 54.36 | 57.06 (+3.4%) | 57.12 (+3.5%) | 57.11 (+3.5%) | Financials printed a STRONG BUY 97 pullback setup on a day when money rotated out of AI/tech and into defensives and financials (XLF +1.44% while the Nasdaq fell 1.37% on Alphabet's miss). The model entry is 2.41 ATR below the close, so the order is queued at the model limit rather than chasing; 4-week payoff is 2.29x. PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy carries the -7 actionable cell bias (hit_1w 0.17), so adj still clears 65 by a wide margin. Trail W -> NT0 -> W -> SB97 is a first buy print, so the queue is self-limiting (fills only on a pullback). Sizing 85.49% x x 20% / 55.20 = 154. Withdraw if conviction < 65; expires 11-03. Est_1W is directional only (calib_1w -0.427, L5/SE-3). · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 167.42 | SELL | 167.42 | 169.30 | 168.97 (+0.9%) | 174.68 (+4.3%) | 187.43 (+12.0%) | Cloud sold off with big tech after Alphabet's miss, and AMZN (AWS) fell after hours, so the cloud ETF lost its buy signal (B75 -> NO TRADE 0) and closed 167.42, below the 169.30 stop on the-share contingent lot. The 10- BUY @MKT stood aside: the 10-29 open gapped -3.4% to 166.46, past the 1.5% reprice band and below its 170.39 stop, so it was never filled (counterfactual: close 167.42 vs ref 172.31). The 61-share lot (stop 164.25) is held if held. L2 closing-basis stop; execute at the 10-30 open if held; ADR-0019 record. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 62.94 | SELL | 62.94 | 66.10 | 63.87 (+1.5%) | 65.62 (+4.3%) | 67.66 (+7.5%) | Tech-heavy gauge fell again on the Alphabet-led AI-capex sell-off and stays below its stop (14th close below 66.10). This is a stop-discipline exit on an unrecorded contingent lot (L2), executed at the 10-30 open only if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 715.34 | SELL | 715.34 | 736.27 | 723.72 (+1.2%) | 731.10 (+2.2%) | 740.64 (+3.5%) | Tech-heavy gauge fell again on the Alphabet-led AI-capex sell-off and stays below its stop (close 715.34 < 736.27). This is a stop-discipline exit on an unrecorded contingent lot (L2), executed at the 10-30 open only if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 769.36 | SELL | 769.36 | 775.14 | 765.86 (-0.5%) | 764.97 (-0.6%) | 798.80 (+3.8%) | Tech-heavy gauge fell again on the Alphabet-led AI-capex sell-off and stays below its stop (775.; the 766. holds (769.36 > 766.13)). This is a stop-discipline exit on an unrecorded contingent lot (L2), executed at the 10-30 open only if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 69.70 | SELL | 69.70 | 71.94 | 70.03 (+0.5%) | 70.34 (+0.9%) | 71.76 (+3.0%) | Tech-heavy gauge fell again on the Alphabet-led AI-capex sell-off and stays below its stop (th close below 71.94). This is a stop-discipline exit on an unrecorded contingent lot (L2), executed at the 10-30 open only if held; record with trade sell/skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 217.86 | WATCH | 217.86 | 208.68 | 219.08 (+0.6%) | 219.72 (+0.9%) | 221.57 (+1.7%) | Biotech held up (+0.70%, BUY - ANTICIPATE 86) and closes 4.4% above the 208.68 stop: hold the contingent if held. Not an anticipate-slot entry: 1 of the last 3 prints, Payoff_4W 0.14x. |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 68.71 | WATCH | 68.71 | 64.40 | 68.81 (+0.1%) | 69.10 (+0.6%) | 71.88 (+4.6%) | Energy cooled to WATCH 62 but closes 6.7% above the 64.40 stop: hold the contingent if held. The 10- re-arm (2nd consecutive BUY adj >= 65 with Payoff >= 1.5x) is not met. |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 88.18 | WATCH | 88.18 | 87.39 | 88.77 (+0.7%) | 89.27 (+1.2%) | 88.63 (+0.5%) | Staples printed a first BUY 66 (adj 65) on the defensive rotation, but Payoff_4W is 1.38x < 1.5x (W3) after three NO TRADE prints (X2). Re-arm: 2nd BUY adj >= 65 with Payoff >= 1.5x. |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 157.79 | WATCH | 159.51 | 146.56 | 158.84 (-0.4%) | 160.43 (+0.6%) | 163.96 (+2.8%) | BUY - ANTICIPATE 72 on a single print, buy-stop 159.51 above the close, Payoff_4W 0.07x; not anticipate-slot eligible. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AVOID 0: no signal. |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 284.01 | WATCH | 284.01 | 284.01 | 285.61 (+0.6%) | 289.83 (+2.0%) | 289.86 (+2.1%) | AVOID 64 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, stand aside. |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 368.57 | WATCH | 368.57 | 368.57 | 371.17 (+0.7%) | 376.85 (+2.2%) | 384.09 (+4.2%) | AVOID 57 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, stand aside. |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 41.72 | WATCH | 41.72 | 41.72 | 41.73 (+0.0%) | 42.41 (+1.7%) | 43.72 (+4.8%) | AVOID 42 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, stand aside. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 26.79 | WATCH | 26.79 | 26.79 | 27.03 (+0.9%) | 27.36 (+2.1%) | 31.58 (+17.9%) | AVOID 54 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, stand aside. Quality gate also fails (OVERVALUED, Quality_Pass False). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
121 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.