Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION on the recorded book: 0 ACQUIRE (XLP/XLF/XLV/IBB STRONG BUYs all fail Payoff_4W; IWM adj 62 < 65), 0 DISPOSE (CASH only); anticipate slot not eligible (DIA/XBI)
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 156.69 | SELL | 156.69 | 164.25 | 158.02 (+0.8%) | 161.16 (+2.9%) | 180.52 (+15.2%) | Cloud +0.5% to 156.69, still below both contingent stops (169.30 / 164.25), NO TRADE for a 4th snapshot. Exit stands at the 11-05 open if the 28 + are real. Stop-discipline exit, not a downside forecast (Est_12W 180.52). Y5: blocked until a close above 164.25. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 59.87 | SELL | 59.87 | 66.10 | 61.02 (+1.9%) | 63.11 (+5.4%) | 62.83 (+4.9%) | The AI and tech gauge rose 0.6% to 59.87, barely above EMA200 (59.83) and an 18th close below the 66.10 stop, NO TRADE. Exit stands at the 11-05 open if the 73 + are real. Y5: blocked until a close above 66.10. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 70.28 | SELL | 70.28 | 71.94 | 70.70 (+0.6%) | 70.17 (-0.2%) | 72.47 (+3.1%) | Megacaps +2.2% to 70.28 on the Apple/Microsoft record highs, but still a 10th close below the 71.94 stop, NO TRADE for a 5th snapshot. Exit stands at the 11-05 open if the lot is real. Y5: blocked until a close above 71.94. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 766.81 | SELL | 766.81 | 775.14 | 767.11 (+0.0%) | 769.83 (+0.4%) | 783.62 (+2.2%) | The S&P fund rallied 1.65% to 766.81 after the midterm sweep. It reclaimed the lower 766. stop by 0.09% (that lot is now HOLD on 766.13), but the first lot is still below its 775.14 stop. Exit (lot 1) at the 11-05 open if held. Board prints AVOID 66 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D) on an up day (X7 pattern). Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 691.95 | SELL | 691.95 | 736.27 | 701.36 (+1.4%) | 696.50 (+0.7%) | 717.82 (+3.7%) | The Nasdaq-100 fund rose 0.97% to 691.95, back above EMA200 (689.49) but 6% under the 736.27 stop, NO TRADE. Chips fell. Exit stands at the 11-05 open if the lot is real. Y5: blocked until a close above 736.27. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 63.52 | SELL | 63.52 | 64.40 | 63.87 (+0.6%) | 65.71 (+3.4%) | 67.65 (+6.5%) | NEW: energy fell 4.74% to 63.52 on the post-election renewables rotation, a decisive close 1.4% (0.43 ATR) below the 64.40 hold-if-held closing stop. Stop-discipline exit at the 11-05 open if the is real. L2's negative-12wk leg does not fire (Est_12W 67.65), so this is the stop alone (SE-7). Y5: blocked until a close above 64.40. Unreconciled (ADR-0019). · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 221.13 | WATCH | 222.40 | 208.68 | 221.52 (-0.4%) | 226.18 (+1.7%) | 229.25 (+3.1%) | Biotech strengthened B69 -> STRONG BUY 78 (BreakoutUp_52W, +2.63%), but new money is declined: the buy-stop is 222.40 on a 3.1-ATR chandelier stop (204.86), so Payoff_4W = (226.18-222.40)/17.54 = 0.22x < 1.5x (W3). Hold the contingent if held: 221.13 is 6.0% above the 208.68 closing stop. Re-arm: Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 91.94 | WATCH | 91.32 | 86.97 | 91.89 (+0.6%) | 88.93 (-2.6%) | 89.44 (-2.1%) | Staples flipped back to STRONG BUY 98 (BreakoutUp_20D, +3.36%), the 3rd flip in 4 snapshots (B77, SB100, NT0, SB98). It fails the payoff bar: Est_4W 88.93 is below the 91.32 entry, so Payoff_4W is -0.55x, and Est_12W 89.44 sits under the 91.94 close (SE-2 inverted forward). X2: a one-session peak after the 11-02 SB100 -> NT0 collapse. Re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 59.20 | WATCH | 57.87 | 55.60 | 59.40 (+2.6%) | 59.46 (+2.7%) | 59.71 (+3.2%) | Financials STRONG BUY 90 (BreakoutUp_20D, +3.51%, closed at the high) but extended: close is 1.29 ATR past the 57.87 entry, RSI 71, and Payoff_4W is (59.46-57.87)/2.27 = 0.70x < 1.5x (W3). 4th flip in 4 snapshots (NT0, SB83, NT0, SB90; X2). Re-arm: a second >=80 print with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 189.66 | WATCH | 188.59 | 180.53 | 189.87 (+0.7%) | 190.47 (+1.0%) | 185.69 (-1.5%) | Health care STRONG BUY 90 (BreakoutUp_20D, +3.06%) after two NO TRADE prints, RSI 76.7 (overbought >75), Payoff_4W (190.47-188.59)/8.06 = 0.23x, and Est_12W 185.69 below the 189.66 close (SE-2). Wait for a pullback. Re-arm: RSI < 70 and Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 284.02 | WATCH | 277.81 | 272.67 | 284.75 (+2.5%) | 287.28 (+3.4%) | 288.05 (+3.7%) | Small-caps W36 -> BUY 69 (PullbackBuy_VWAP, +1.51%); Payoff_4W passes at 1.84x on a 1.17-ATR stop, but the book's -7 PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy haircut (hit_1w 0.17, hit_4w 0.26, n=23) takes it to adj 62, below the 65 floor. Fresh single print. Re-arm: raw >= 72 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x (limit at the printed Entry_Price, 1.41 ATR below the close). · news |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 533.11 | WATCH | 529.20 | 506.63 | 535.22 (+1.1%) | 538.21 (+1.7%) | 540.80 (+2.2%) | The Dow fund printed BUY - ANTICIPATE 100 (AnticipationUp_VCP, +3.10%) on the best Dow day of 2026, but it's the first ANTICIPATE print in the last 3 snapshots (NT0, NT0, BA100), so the anticipate slot is not eligible (needs). Payoff_4W on the 529.20 buy-stop is 0.40x. Re-arm: a second BA print with conviction >= 55 next session -> GTC buy-stop at the printed Entry_Price, 0.5x size. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 159.10 | WATCH | 160.80 | 145.38 | 160.23 (-0.4%) | 162.68 (+1.2%) | 163.57 (+1.7%) | Equal-weight biotech W51 -> BUY - ANTICIPATE 72 (+2.67%), its first ANTICIPATE print in the last 3 snapshots (W45, W51, BA72), so it is not eligible for the anticipate slot. Payoff_4W 0.12x on a 3-ATR stop. Re-arm: a second BA print. |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Flat (-0.01%) on the session. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE 0: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Semis fell 2.75% as chips sold off on the midterm rotation; below EMA200 (522.85). |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 450.41 | WATCH | 451.62 | 529.41 | 456.01 (+1.0%) | 483.32 (+7.0%) | 495.20 (+9.6%) | AVOID 83 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Semis -3.14% to 450.41, below EMA200 (479.17): a BreakdownDown_20D print on a down day (directionally consistent, unlike X7). |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 372.49 | WATCH | 372.49 | 372.49 | 371.10 (-0.4%) | 372.53 (+0.0%) | 379.08 (+1.8%) | AVOID 75 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Gold +3.68% yet prints AVOID FailedBreakout_Down_20D (X7 pattern: high-conviction bearish label on a strong up day; Y2 immediate-stop row). |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 122.33 | WATCH | 122.33 | 125.95 | 123.33 (+0.8%) | 124.80 (+2.0%) | 126.98 (+3.8%) | AVOID 90 (ReversalDown_Overbought); long-only, so stand aside. Discretionary +4.26% to RSI 72.5 -> ReversalDown_Overbought AVOID 90. |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 39.41 | WATCH | 39.41 | 41.19 | 39.85 (+1.1%) | 42.38 (+7.5%) | 42.26 (+7.2%) | AVOID 51 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only, so stand aside. Space -2.86%, RallySell_BearTrend, below EMA200. |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 130.55 | WATCH | 130.55 | 135.52 | 133.50 (+2.3%) | 132.25 (+1.3%) | 142.76 (+9.4%) | AVOID 63 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only, so stand aside. Quantum -1.23%, RallySell_BearTrend, below EMA200. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 26.93 | WATCH | 26.93 | 26.93 | 27.17 (+0.9%) | 27.27 (+1.3%) | 30.80 (+14.4%) | AVOID 76 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. The one priced valuation row (UNDERVALUED, Quality_Pass False, so the quality gate would block a new entry anyway). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
141 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.