Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION on the recorded book: 0 ACQUIRE (no bullish actionable row on the board; every 11-04 STRONG BUY decayed to NO TRADE 0), 0 DISPOSE (CASH only); anticipate slot ineligible (no BA print)
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 7 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY - ANTICIPATE 100 -> NO TRADE 0 (-3.5%). The 1-of-3 anticipate denial avoided the gap down. Re-arm needs BA prints. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 23.04 | WATCH | 24.86 | 31.01 | 23.83 (-4.1%) | 25.69 (+3.3%) | 32.27 (+29.8%) | AVOID 90 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Board-wide AI/chip sell-off. |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 733.00 | SELL | 733.00 | 766.13 | 732.85 (-0.0%) | 742.04 (+1.2%) | 740.37 (+1.0%) | Stop-discipline exit of an unrecorded contingent lot in a tape-wide AI/chip sell-off. S&P fund -4.4% to 733.00. This takes out BOTH lots: lot 1 (775.14) and lot 2, which reclaimed 766.13 on 11-04 and now closed 4.3% below it. SELL at the 11-06 open only if the lot is real (reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; NFP prints pre-open). Not a downside forecast (Est_4W 742.04). Y5: blocked until a close above 766.13. Unreconciled (ADR-0019, 71st run). · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 647.05 | SELL | 647.05 | 736.27 | 656.85 (+1.5%) | 662.66 (+2.4%) | 659.88 (+2.0%) | Stop-discipline exit of an unrecorded contingent lot in a tape-wide AI/chip sell-off. Nasdaq-100 fund -6.5% to 647.05, now AVOID 84 BreakdownDown_20D, 12.1% below the 736.27 stop. SELL at the 11-06 open only if the lot is real (reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; NFP prints pre-open). Not a downside forecast (Est_4W 662.66). Y5: blocked until a close above 736.27. Unreconciled (ADR-0019, 71st run). · news |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 69 -> NO TRADE 0, 'Liquidity gate failed' (an anomalous gate on IWM; see systemic findings). -4.6%. The adj-62 below-floor call held. |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 66.85 | SELL | 66.85 | 71.94 | 67.72 (+1.3%) | 66.71 (-0.2%) | 68.33 (+2.2%) | Stop-discipline exit of an unrecorded contingent lot in a tape-wide AI/chip sell-off. Mag-7 -4.9% to 66.85, 11th close below the 71.94 stop. SELL at the 11-06 open only if the lot is real (reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; NFP prints pre-open). Not a downside forecast (Est_4W 66.71). Y5: blocked until a close above 71.94. Unreconciled (ADR-0019, 71st run). · news |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | DATA INTEGRITY: Close 131.90 vs 450.41 prior = -70.7%, consistent with a ~3:1 split plus a ~-12% SOX day; ATR 107 is contaminated by unadjusted history. Treat the row as unreadable until the history is split-adjusted. |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 56.15 | SELL | 56.15 | 66.10 | 57.25 (+2.0%) | 59.13 (+5.3%) | 59.44 (+5.9%) | Stop-discipline exit of an unrecorded contingent lot in a tape-wide AI/chip sell-off. AI & Tech -6.2% to 56.15, now AVOID 84 BreakdownDown_20D, 19th close below the 66.10 stop. SELL at the 11-06 open only if the lot is real (reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; NFP prints pre-open). Not a downside forecast (Est_4W 59.13). Y5: blocked until a close above 66.1. Unreconciled (ADR-0019, 71st run). · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 375.49 | WATCH | 375.49 | 375.49 | 373.37 (-0.6%) | 373.09 (-0.6%) | 386.10 (+2.8%) | AVOID 75 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Board-wide AI/chip sell-off. |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 447.73 | WATCH | 496.76 | 590.20 | 446.59 (-10.1%) | 479.39 (-3.5%) | 557.01 (+12.1%) | AVOID 82 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Board-wide AI/chip sell-off. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 147.17 | SELL | 147.17 | 164.25 | 149.77 (+1.8%) | 155.27 (+5.5%) | 168.84 (+14.7%) | Stop-discipline exit of an unrecorded contingent lot in a tape-wide AI/chip sell-off. Cloud -6.1% to 147.17, below both contingent stops (169.30 / 164.25), NO TRADE for a 5th snapshot. SELL at the 11-06 open only if the lot is real (reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; NFP prints pre-open). Not a downside forecast (Est_4W 155.27). Y5: blocked until a close above 164.25. Unreconciled (ADR-0019, 71st run). · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 209.99 | WATCH | 209.99 | 208.68 | 211.04 (+0.5%) | 214.69 (+2.2%) | 217.06 (+3.4%) | Biotech STRONG BUY 78 -> NO TRADE 0 (-5.0%, X2 peak decay again), but 209.99 still holds the 208.68 closing stop by +0.6%. HOLD the contingent if held; exit on any close below 208.68. The 11-04 WATCH (payoff 0.22x) avoided a -5% day. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 148.40 | WATCH | 148.40 | 148.40 | 148.63 (+0.2%) | 145.51 (-1.9%) | 155.78 (+5.0%) | AVOID 53 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Board-wide AI/chip sell-off. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY on 11-04 -> NO TRADE 0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction); the payoff-bar WATCH was right (X2: the STRONG BUY was a peak). No re-arm until two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 61.63 | SELL | 61.63 | 64.40 | 62.36 (+1.2%) | 63.86 (+3.6%) | 70.25 (+14.0%) | Stop-discipline exit of an unrecorded contingent lot in a tape-wide AI/chip sell-off. Energy -3.0% to 61.63, a 2nd close below the 64.40 stop (11-04 break confirmed). SELL at the 11-06 open only if the lot is real (reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; NFP prints pre-open). Not a downside forecast (Est_4W 63.86). Y5: blocked until a close above 64.4. Unreconciled (ADR-0019, 71st run). · news |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 162.47 | SELL | 162.47 | 165.04 | 162.95 (+0.3%) | 167.06 (+2.8%) | 170.97 (+5.2%) | Stop-discipline exit of an unrecorded contingent lot in a tape-wide AI/chip sell-off. Industrials -4.1% to 162.47 (AVOID 75 BreakdownDown_20D), below the 165.04 stop of the POSSIBLE 11-04 fill @168.38. Exit only if that fill is real; otherwise the withdrawal saved -3.5%. SELL at the 11-06 open only if the lot is real (reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; NFP prints pre-open). Not a downside forecast (Est_4W 167.06). Y5: blocked until a close above 165.04. Unreconciled (ADR-0019, 71st run). · news |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY on 11-04 -> NO TRADE 0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction); the payoff-bar WATCH was right (X2: the STRONG BUY was a peak). No re-arm until two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 162.38 | WATCH | 173.78 | 195.22 | 164.73 (-5.2%) | 165.58 (-4.7%) | 192.06 (+10.5%) | AVOID 84 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Board-wide AI/chip sell-off. · news |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY on 11-04 -> NO TRADE 0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction); the payoff-bar WATCH was right (X2: the STRONG BUY was a peak). No re-arm until two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); no actionable read. |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 37.21 | WATCH | 38.28 | 43.18 | 37.96 (-0.8%) | 39.37 (+2.8%) | 39.68 (+3.7%) | AVOID 90 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Board-wide AI/chip sell-off. |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 119.30 | WATCH | 129.09 | 147.16 | 118.69 (-8.1%) | 122.83 (-4.8%) | 125.88 (-2.5%) | AVOID 84 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only, so stand aside. Board-wide AI/chip sell-off. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
148 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.