Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION on the recorded book: 0 ACQUIRE (XLY/XLV/XLF BUY 67-73 all fail Payoff_4W 1.5x and carry dead 12wk), 0 DISPOSE (CASH only); anticipate slot ineligible
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 121.05 | WATCH | 121.05 | 119.57 | 121.50 (+0.4%) | 119.14 (-1.6%) | 118.42 (-2.2%) | New BUY 73 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, Buy_Rank 1) after W60; Est_4W 119.14 below the 121.05 close fails the W3 1.5x payoff bar and T 118.42 < close (deadwk, SE-2). One-session jump (X2). WATCH; re-arm: second >=65 print with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 188.88 | WATCH | 188.88 | 186.71 | 189.63 (+0.4%) | 187.34 (-0.8%) | 180.83 (-4.3%) | BUY 70 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); Est_4W 187.34 below the 188.88 close fails W3, T 180.83 < close (deadwk). WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 58.29 | WATCH | 58.29 | 57.73 | 58.79 (+0.9%) | 58.59 (+0.5%) | 57.70 (-1.0%) | BUY 67 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); Payoff_4W (58.59-58.29)/(58.29-57.73)=0.54x fails W3, T 57.70 < close (deadwk). WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); no buy trigger printed. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 26.25 | WATCH | 26.25 | 26.25 | 27.28 (+3.9%) | 29.00 (+10.5%) | 39.15 (+49.1%) | AVOID 76 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so stand aside. UNDERVALUED but Quality_Pass False. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 749.92 | SELL | 749.92 | 766.13 | 753.00 (+0.4%) | 755.39 (+0.7%) | 753.07 (+0.4%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: SPY closed 749.92 on 11-10, still -2.1% below its 766.13 closing stop, and the hot-CPI fade confirmed the weak tape; label NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-11 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 766.13. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 674.76 | SELL | 674.76 | 736.27 | 679.43 (+0.7%) | 672.78 (-0.3%) | 707.66 (+4.9%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: QQQ closed 674.76 on 11-10, still -8.4% below its 736.27 closing stop, and the hot-CPI fade confirmed the weak tape; label NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-11 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 736.27. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 280.58 | WATCH | 280.58 | 277.40 | 281.41 (+0.3%) | 276.68 (-1.4%) | 277.61 (-1.1%) | NT0 -> WATCH 54 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); Est_4W 276.68 below the 280.58 close. WATCH; re-arm: raw >=72 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 68.55 | SELL | 68.55 | 71.94 | 68.82 (+0.4%) | 67.76 (-1.2%) | 70.69 (+3.1%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: MAGS closed 68.55 on 11-10, still -4.7% below its 71.94 closing stop, and the hot-CPI fade confirmed the weak tape; label NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-11 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 71.94. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 146.59 | WATCH | 146.59 | 146.59 | 152.71 (+4.2%) | 165.32 (+12.8%) | 171.78 (+17.2%) | AVOID 68 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D) but the 20D/52W history and T 171.78 are still built on a pre-split series (Y7). Stand aside; re-fetch split-adjusted history before any read. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 58.40 | SELL | 58.40 | 66.10 | 59.19 (+1.4%) | 58.71 (+0.5%) | 63.28 (+8.4%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: AIQ closed 58.4 on 11-10, still -11.6% below its 66.1 closing stop, and the hot-CPI fade confirmed the weak tape; label NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-11 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 66.1. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 369.36 | WATCH | 369.36 | 369.36 | 367.28 (-0.6%) | 369.21 (-0.0%) | 384.57 (+4.1%) | AVOID 52 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 483.63 | WATCH | 483.63 | 483.63 | 480.38 (-0.7%) | 515.09 (+6.5%) | 553.69 (+14.5%) | AVOID 68 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 149.95 | SELL | 149.95 | 164.25 | 150.73 (+0.5%) | 151.84 (+1.3%) | 168.97 (+12.7%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: SKYY closed 149.95 on 11-10, still -8.7% below its 164.25 closing stop, and the hot-CPI fade confirmed the weak tape; label NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-11 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 164.25. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 217.18 | WATCH | 217.18 | 213.15 | 218.44 (+0.6%) | 220.66 (+1.6%) | 227.01 (+4.5%) | Biotech lost its bid on the hot CPI: signal collapsed B75 -> NT0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction), close 217.18 still +1.9% over the 213.15 trail. Contingent : HOLD, exit on any close below 213.15. WATCH re-arm reset: fresh BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); no buy trigger printed. |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 62.21 | SELL | 62.21 | 64.40 | 63.39 (+1.9%) | 64.84 (+4.2%) | 68.92 (+10.8%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: XLE closed 62.21 on 11-10, still -3.4% below its 64.4 closing stop, and the hot-CPI fade confirmed the weak tape; label NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-11 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 64.4. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 168.73 | WATCH | 168.73 | 165.04 | 168.95 (+0.1%) | 166.05 (-1.6%) | 168.45 (-0.2%) | Industrials NT0 but the close 168.73 holds +2.2% above the 165.04 stop. HOLD only if the 11-@168.38 fill is real; exit on any close below 165.04. · news |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); no buy trigger printed. |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 91.03 | WATCH | 91.03 | 90.14 | 91.19 (+0.2%) | 87.42 (-4.0%) | 87.99 (-3.3%) | Slipped B66 -> WATCH 61; T 87.99 < close. WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 41.73 | WATCH | 41.73 | 41.73 | 41.81 (+0.2%) | 42.72 (+2.4%) | 46.14 (+10.6%) | AVOID 50 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 130.08 | WATCH | 130.08 | 130.08 | 129.34 (-0.6%) | 128.28 (-1.4%) | 143.48 (+10.3%) | AVOID 62 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
168 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.