Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION on the recorded book: 0 ACQUIRE (IBB/XLV/XLF/XLP/XBI BUY 65-75 all fail Payoff_4W 1.5x; XLV/XLF/XLP dead 12wk), 0 DISPOSE (CASH only); anticipate slot ineligible
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 219.57 | WATCH | 219.57 | 213.15 | 220.08 (+0.2%) | 222.45 (+1.3%) | 223.75 (+1.9%) | Biotech strengthened to BUY 75 (+2.8% to 219.57); adj 74 clears the floor but Payoff_4W = (222.45-219.57)/(219.57-213.15) = 0.45x fails the W3 1.5x bar, so WATCH, no new buy. Contingent : HOLD, trail raised 208.68 -> 213.15 (live Stop_Price), close +3.0% over it. Re-arm: Payoff_4W >=1.5x on a >=65 print. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 188.33 | WATCH | 188.33 | 185.36 | 188.83 (+0.3%) | 184.68 (-1.9%) | 181.50 (-3.6%) | BUY 75 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) on a relief rally; Payoff_4W negative fails the W3 1.5x bar. T below the close (deadwk). Defensive trail SB -> NT -> NT -> B is not a stable signal (X2). WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 57.99 | WATCH | 57.99 | 57.26 | 58.49 (+0.9%) | 58.40 (+0.7%) | 57.40 (-1.0%) | BUY 66 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) on a relief rally; Payoff_4W 0.56x fails the W3 1.5x bar. T below the close (deadwk). Defensive trail SB -> NT -> NT -> B is not a stable signal (X2). WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 90.89 | WATCH | 90.89 | 89.80 | 91.20 (+0.3%) | 87.59 (-3.6%) | 87.50 (-3.7%) | BUY 66 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) on a relief rally; Payoff_4W negative fails the W3 1.5x bar. T below the close (deadwk). Defensive trail SB -> NT -> NT -> B is not a stable signal (X2). WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 156.90 | WATCH | 156.90 | 151.00 | 157.43 (+0.3%) | 157.32 (+0.3%) | 161.39 (+2.9%) | BUY 65 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) on a relief rally; Payoff_4W 0.07x fails the W3 1.5x bar. Adj 64 is under the 65 floor. Defensive trail SB -> NT -> NT -> B is not a stable signal (X2). WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 523.33 | WATCH | 523.33 | 517.24 | 525.44 (+0.4%) | 525.31 (+0.4%) | 519.74 (-0.7%) | WATCH 54 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); no BUY trigger and no ANTICIPATE print. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 25.48 | WATCH | 25.48 | 25.48 | 26.45 (+3.8%) | 28.09 (+10.2%) | 38.11 (+49.6%) | AVOID 76 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. The 11-09 rally did not repair the bearish consensus. |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 752.69 | SELL | 752.69 | 766.13 | 755.20 (+0.3%) | 759.02 (+0.8%) | 757.47 (+0.6%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: SPY closed 752.69 on 11-09, still below its 766.13 closing stop despite the broad relief rally; label NO TRADE (NoTrade_Reason: Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-10 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the CPI open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 766.13. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 679.35 | SELL | 679.35 | 736.27 | 683.15 (+0.6%) | 675.02 (-0.6%) | 722.70 (+6.4%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: QQQ closed 679.35 on 11-09, still below its 736.27 closing stop despite the broad relief rally; label NO TRADE (NoTrade_Reason: Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-10 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the CPI open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 736.27. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); no actionable read. |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 69.09 | SELL | 69.09 | 71.94 | 69.29 (+0.3%) | 67.72 (-2.0%) | 70.81 (+2.5%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: MAGS closed 69.09 on 11-09, still below its 71.94 closing stop despite the broad relief rally; label NO TRADE (NoTrade_Reason: Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-10 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the CPI open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 71.94. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 146.76 | WATCH | 146.76 | 146.76 | 152.77 (+4.1%) | 164.87 (+12.3%) | 170.72 (+16.3%) | AVOID 76 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. The 11-09 rally did not repair the bearish consensus. DATA SUSPECT: +7.5% vs SMH +5.1%; 20D/52W history and T still on the pre-split series. |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 58.77 | SELL | 58.77 | 66.10 | 59.47 (+1.2%) | 60.12 (+2.3%) | 61.19 (+4.1%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: AIQ closed 58.77 on 11-09, still below its 66.1 closing stop despite the broad relief rally; label NO TRADE (NoTrade_Reason: Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-10 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the CPI open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 66.1. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 379.53 | WATCH | 379.53 | 379.53 | 378.13 (-0.4%) | 380.65 (+0.3%) | 392.23 (+3.3%) | AVOID 65 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. The 11-09 rally did not repair the bearish consensus. |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 487.41 | WATCH | 487.41 | 487.41 | 482.65 (-1.0%) | 513.25 (+5.3%) | 553.84 (+13.6%) | AVOID 76 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. The 11-09 rally did not repair the bearish consensus. |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 150.71 | SELL | 150.71 | 164.25 | 151.69 (+0.7%) | 150.47 (-0.2%) | 170.30 (+13.0%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: SKYY closed 150.71 on 11-09, still below its 164.25 closing stop despite the broad relief rally; label NO TRADE (NoTrade_Reason: Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-10 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the CPI open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 164.25. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 61.94 | SELL | 61.94 | 64.40 | 63.01 (+1.7%) | 65.06 (+5.0%) | 69.40 (+12.0%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: XLE closed 61.94 on 11-09, still below its 64.4 closing stop despite the broad relief rally; label NO TRADE (NoTrade_Reason: Consensus conflict + low conviction). SELL at the 11-10 open only if the lot is real; reprice if the CPI open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 64.4. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 168.89 | WATCH | 168.89 | 165.04 | 169.22 (+0.2%) | 167.23 (-1.0%) | 169.42 (+0.3%) | Industrials recovered to 168.89, back above the 165.04 closing stop (+2.3%), label AV40 -> NO TRADE; the 11-06 contingent exit LAPSES. HOLD only if the 11-@168.38 fill is real; exit on any close below 165.04. · news |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); no actionable read. |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 121.01 | WATCH | 121.01 | 119.31 | 121.53 (+0.4%) | 119.39 (-1.3%) | 118.38 (-2.2%) | WATCH 60 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); no BUY trigger and no ANTICIPATE print. |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 41.57 | WATCH | 41.57 | 41.57 | 41.71 (+0.3%) | 42.48 (+2.2%) | 43.22 (+4.0%) | AVOID 60 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. The 11-09 rally did not repair the bearish consensus. |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 130.72 | WATCH | 130.72 | 130.72 | 129.74 (-0.7%) | 129.42 (-1.0%) | 142.23 (+8.8%) | AVOID 75 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only, so stand aside. The 11-09 rally did not repair the bearish consensus. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
162 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.