Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION on the recorded book: 0 ACQUIRE (IBB/DIA/XLF/XLP BUY 66-74 all fail Payoff_4W 1.5x; DIA/XLF/XLP dead 12wk), 0 DISPOSE (CASH only); anticipate slot ineligible
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 218.14 | WATCH | 218.14 | 213.15 | 219.48 (+0.6%) | 220.02 (+0.9%) | 226.17 (+3.7%) | Biotech bid returned: NT0 -> BUY 74 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, Buy_Rank 1), close 218.14 holds +2.3% over the 213.15 trail. Contingent : HOLD, exit on any close below 213.15. No add/new entry: Payoff_4W (220.02-218.14)/(218.14-215.33)=0.67x fails W3; B75->NT0->B74 whipsaw (X2). Re-arm: second consecutive BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 524.44 | WATCH | 524.44 | 520.07 | 526.12 (+0.3%) | 526.30 (+0.4%) | 515.78 (-1.7%) | Fresh BUY 71 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) straight from NT0 (X2 single-session jump); Payoff_4W (526.30-524.44)/(524.44-520.07)=0.43x fails W3 and T 515.78 < close (deadwk, SE-2). WATCH; re-arm: second >=65 print with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 58.63 | WATCH | 58.63 | 58.02 | 59.07 (+0.8%) | 58.68 (+0.1%) | 58.39 (-0.4%) | Third straight BUY print -> 70, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) but Payoff_4W (58.68-58.63)/(58.63-58.02)=0.08x fails W3 and T 58.39 < close (deadwk). WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 91.45 | WATCH | 91.45 | 90.26 | 91.59 (+0.2%) | 89.44 (-2.2%) | 88.54 (-3.2%) | W61 -> BUY 66 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); Est_4W 89.44 below the 91.45 close (negative payoff) and T 88.54 < close. WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 188.95 | WATCH | 188.95 | 186.85 | 189.90 (+0.5%) | 188.56 (-0.2%) | 180.73 (-4.4%) | Cooled B70 -> WATCH 61, RSI 68.5; Est_4W 188.56 < close, T 180.73 < close. WATCH; re-arm: two consecutive >=80 prints with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. · news |
| — | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | One-session BUY half-life again: B73 -> NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction). Stand aside; re-arm: fresh >=65 print with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and T >= close. |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 283.09 | WATCH | 283.09 | 280.24 | 284.09 (+0.4%) | 280.27 (-1.0%) | 275.79 (-2.6%) | WATCH (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); Est_4W 280.27 < 283.09 close, T 275.79 < close. WATCH; re-arm: raw >=72 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 156.31 | WATCH | 156.31 | 153.72 | 157.55 (+0.8%) | 157.82 (+1.0%) | 161.05 (+3.0%) | NT0 -> WATCH 62 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D); payoff (157.82-156.31)/(156.31-153.72)=0.58x. WATCH; re-arm: raw >=66 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 154.30 | SELL | 154.30 | 164.25 | 153.72 (-0.4%) | 155.70 (+0.9%) | 172.32 (+11.7%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: SKYY closed 154.30 on 11-11, still -6.1% below its 164.25 closing stop even after the chip-led rally; label NO TRADE. SELL at the 11- open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 164.25. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 59.91 | SELL | 59.91 | 66.10 | 60.12 (+0.4%) | 58.36 (-2.6%) | 62.84 (+4.9%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: AIQ closed 59.91 on 11-11, still -9.4% below its 66.1 closing stop even after the chip-led rally; label NO TRADE. SELL at the 11- open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 66.1. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 63.37 | SELL | 63.37 | 64.40 | 63.83 (+0.7%) | 65.20 (+2.9%) | 69.89 (+10.3%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: XLE closed 63.37 on 11-11, still -1.6% below its 64.4 closing stop even after the chip-led rally; label NO TRADE. SELL at the 11- open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 64.4. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 68.89 | SELL | 68.89 | 71.94 | 69.07 (+0.3%) | 67.98 (-1.3%) | 71.36 (+3.6%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: MAGS closed 68.89 on 11-11, still -4.2% below its 71.94 closing stop even after the chip-led rally; label NO TRADE. SELL at the 11- open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 71.94. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 759.81 | SELL | 759.81 | 766.13 | 762.56 (+0.4%) | 761.76 (+0.3%) | 755.15 (-0.6%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: SPY closed 759.81 on 11-11, still -0.8% below its 766.13 closing stop even after the chip-led rally; label AVOID. SELL at the 11- open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 766.13. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 690.38 | SELL | 690.38 | 736.27 | 685.63 (-0.7%) | 661.20 (-4.2%) | 743.94 (+7.8%) | Contingent stop-discipline exit: QQQ closed 690.38 on 11-11, still -6.2% below its 736.27 closing stop even after the chip-led rally; label NO TRADE. SELL at the 11- open only if the lot is real; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. L2/SE-7/U3 + Y5 re-entry block until a close above 736.27. ADR-0019 unreconciled - record trade sell/skip. · news |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 170.97 | WATCH | 170.97 | 165.04 | 171.35 (+0.2%) | 168.86 (-1.2%) | 169.61 (-0.8%) | Industrials NT0 but the close 170.97 holds +3.6% above the 165.04 stop. HOLD only if the 11-@168.38 fill is real; exit on any close below 165.04. · news |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Led the chip rally but prints NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); AVOID cleared, no buy trigger printed. Stand aside. |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Led the chip rally but prints NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); AVOID cleared, no buy trigger printed. Stand aside. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Led the chip rally but prints NO TRADE (Consensus conflict + low conviction); AVOID cleared, no buy trigger printed. Stand aside. |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 155.40 | WATCH | — | — | 156.83 | 168.07 | 175.22 | AVOID 68 -> NO TRADE (+6.0% vs SMH +4.8%); pre-split history contamination (Y7) not verified fixed. Stand aside; re-fetch split-adjusted history before any read. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 365.17 | WATCH | 365.17 | 365.17 | 363.64 (-0.4%) | 358.46 (-1.8%) | 379.59 (+3.9%) | AVOID 56 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 42.17 | WATCH | 42.17 | 42.17 | 42.13 (-0.1%) | 42.76 (+1.4%) | 46.31 (+9.8%) | AVOID 35 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D), fading; long-only book, so stand aside. · news |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 25.97 | WATCH | 25.97 | 25.97 | 27.17 (+4.6%) | 29.91 (+15.2%) | 38.94 (+49.9%) | AVOID 68 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so stand aside. UNDERVALUED but Quality_Pass False. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
174 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.427 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.