Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 2 (AIQ 126, SPY 6) / DISPOSE 0 on the recorded book; anticipate slot ineligible (QTUM); contingents: IBB + XLE exit if held, QQQ + SKYY hold, MAGS watch
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 66.23 | BUY | 66.23 | 65.75 | 66.34 (+0.2%) | 66.96 (+1.1%) | 71.14 (+7.4%) | The Global X AI & Tech ETF has now printed four straight BUYs with conviction climbing -> (STRONG BUY, Buy_Rank 1), and closed at market (Entry_Distance 0.0) on a tech-led, dovish-payrolls session; buy at the 10-05 open. OPERATIONAL: first time the W3 payoff gate passes on AIQ: (66.96 - 66.23)/0.48 = 1.52x >= 1.5x (stop 65.75 = 0.50 ATR, FailedBreakdown family constant, Y2/W5). adj 85 - 1 (SE-1 live bias) = 84. Y5 clear (66.23 far above the 09-10 cut stop). X2: an 85 print usually decays next session, but the thesis is the 4-print sequence, not the peak. Sizing 85.49% x conservative NAV (V7) x 20% = / 66.23 = =. L8: reprice if the 10-05 open gaps >1.5% from 66.23. SE-2: 4-week swing, not a position hold. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 769.64 | BUY | 769.64 | 766.13 | 772.58 (+0.4%) | 781.24 (+1.5%) | 794.34 (+3.2%) | The S&P 500 ETF flipped to a fresh BUY 75 after rising WATCH prints, closing at market on the dovish payrolls rally; buy at the 10-05 open. OPERATIONAL: Payoff_4W (781.24 - 769.64)/3.51 = 3.30x passes W3. adj 75 - 1 = 74. Stop 766.13 = 0.50 ATR (family constant, Y2). First BUY print, so this is a single model tranche. Sizing 49.24% x (V7) x 20% = / 769.64 = =. L8 reprice band 1.5%. SE-2: 4-week swing. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 749.58 | WATCH | 749.90 | 729.24 | 754.24 (+0.6%) | 762.74 (+1.7%) | 772.73 (+3.0%) | The Nasdaq-100 ETF printed a 4th straight BUY (70, now BreakoutUp_52W) and closed +1.02% at 749.58 on a record Nasdaq close; if the 09-30 card filled, hold. OPERATIONAL: 09-30 QQQ card still unrecorded (ADR-0019); mark if filled at 742.51 = +. Stop held at 736.27 (model stop 729.24 is lower; a trail never loosens). No add: W (unrecorded lot) and W3 fails on the new 52W geometry (0.62x). · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 205.29 | EXIT IF HELD | 205.29 | 203.35 | 206.30 (+0.5%) | 211.78 (+3.2%) | 219.97 (+7.2%) | The biotech ETF slipped another 0.33% to 205.29 and stays below its broken 208.68 stop, with the label decaying to WATCH 52; the exit stands if the position exists. OPERATIONAL: the 10-01 contingent sale would have filled at the 10-02 open 206.88 (+0.45% vs ref) = -realised vs 208.27 cost. If still held, sell at the 10-05 open. Y5 blocks re-entry until a close above 208.68. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 62.82 | EXIT IF HELD | 62.82 | 62.82 | 63.27 (+0.7%) | 64.88 (+3.3%) | 66.44 (+5.8%) | The energy ETF closed a 10th session below its 63.66 stop (62.82) and now prints AVOID 65; the exit stands if the position exists. OPERATIONAL: if still held, sell at the 10-05 open; OPEC+ meets 10-05. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 168.14 | WATCH | 168.14 | 166.46 | 168.76 (+0.4%) | 168.65 (+0.3%) | 178.42 (+6.1%) | The cloud ETF closed +0.71% at 168.14, above its 164.25 stop, but the label slipped BUY 75 -> WATCH 61; hold if filled, no add. OPERATIONAL: SKYY @162.02 unrecorded; mark if filled +. Exit on a close below 164.25 or two NT/Conflicted prints. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 72.59 | WATCH | 72.59 | 72.01 | 73.22 (+0.9%) | 74.66 (+2.9%) | 79.54 (+9.6%) | The Magnificent Seven ETF closed back above its 71.94 stop (72.59, +1.61%) and printed BUY 75 with a 3.57x payoff, but the trail is a flip-flop (B69 -> W63 -> B75) and the 10-01 contingent exit leaves its held/not-held status ambiguous. OPERATIONAL: Y5 cleared today. Re-arm: a 2nd consecutive BUY >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x and the MAGS recorded (W/V7). If the 10-01 exit never executed, hold with stop 71.94. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 199.81 | WATCH | 198.60 | 189.22 | 200.89 (+1.2%) | 206.50 (+4.0%) | 221.91 (+11.7%) | The tech ETF's STRONG BUY 86 decayed to BUY 63 the next session (X2) despite a +1.01% day; below the 65 floor. OPERATIONAL: Payoff_4W (206.50 - 198.60)/9.38 = 0.84x also fails W3. Re-arm on BUY >= 65 with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 156.06 | WATCH | 155.08 | 146.64 | 155.79 (+0.5%) | 155.13 (+0.0%) | 166.45 (+7.3%) | The quantum ETF printed BUY - ANTICIPATE 83 after an alternating trail (B76 -> NT -> B69 -> ANT83); only 1 of the last 3 prints is ANTICIPATE, so the slot is ineligible. OPERATIONAL: buy-stop geometry pays 0.01x on Est_4W (T7). Re-arm on ANTICIPATE in prints with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 588.90 | WATCH | 588.90 | 614.66 | 588.71 (-0.0%) | 593.01 (+0.7%) | 615.43 (+4.5%) | The semiconductor ETF flipped from ANTICIPATE 80 to AVOID 55 (ReversalDown_Overbought) on a +2.18% day; long-only, no position. OPERATIONAL: same-row contradiction with Consolidation_Bullish consensus (X7/Y7 pattern). · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 630.60 | WATCH | 630.60 | 652.50 | 630.44 (-0.0%) | 641.49 (+1.7%) | 668.47 (+6.0%) | The VanEck semiconductor ETF printed AVOID 63 (ReversalDown_Overbought) on a +2.07% day; long-only, no position. OPERATIONAL: RSI 68.6; same contradiction as SOXX. · news |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 32.80 | WATCH | 32.80 | 32.80 | 32.99 (+0.6%) | 34.27 (+4.5%) | 37.00 (+12.8%) | Destiny Tech100 Inc printed AVOID 58 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 32.80, RSI 58.1. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 380.14 | WATCH | 380.14 | 380.14 | 383.51 (+0.9%) | 387.19 (+1.9%) | 386.28 (+1.6%) | SPDR Gold Shares ETF printed AVOID 69 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 380.14, RSI 38.8. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 80.53 | WATCH | 80.53 | 80.53 | 80.63 (+0.1%) | 81.53 (+1.2%) | 85.30 (+5.9%) | Consumer Staples SPDR printed AVOID 70 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 80.53, RSI 33.5. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 110.04 | WATCH | 110.04 | 110.04 | 110.04 (+0.0%) | 108.96 (-1.0%) | 111.65 (+1.5%) | Consumer Discretionary SPDR printed AVOID 75 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 110.04, RSI 40.9. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 43.13 | WATCH | 43.13 | 43.13 | 43.33 (+0.5%) | 44.30 (+2.7%) | 48.16 (+11.7%) | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) printed AVOID 75 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 43.13, RSI 46.3. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg printed NO TRADE: "Consensus conflict + low conviction"; no position. OPERATIONAL: close 511.10, RSI 39.1. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | iShares Russell 2000 ETF printed NO TRADE: "Consensus conflict + low conviction"; no position. OPERATIONAL: close 281.52, RSI 39.6. |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF printed NO TRADE: "Consensus conflict + low conviction"; no position. OPERATIONAL: close 154.43, RSI 43.5. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Financial Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE: "Consensus conflict + low conviction"; no position. OPERATIONAL: close 53.49, RSI 25.9. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Industrial Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE: "Consensus conflict + low conviction"; no position. OPERATIONAL: close 169.95, RSI 43.8. |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Health Care Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE: "Consensus conflict + low conviction"; no position. OPERATIONAL: close 166.18, RSI 41.3. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
61 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.322 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.