Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (ACQUIRE 0 / DISPOSE 0 on the recorded book); anticipate slot ineligible; contingents: IBB exit (stop break), MAGS exit, XLE exit, QQQ + SKYY hold with raised stops
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 205.96 | EXIT IF HELD | 205.96 | 208.68 | 207.05 (+0.5%) | 210.63 (+2.3%) | 218.95 (+6.3%) | The biotech ETF reversed from a 211.73 high to close at 205.96 (-2.17%), a decisive close 1.3% below its 208.68 stop; if the 09-28 fill exists, sell all at the 10-02 open. OPERATIONAL: 09-25 card IBB @208.27 still unrecorded (ADR-0019). Exit basis = decisive stop break (0.66 ATR through), not a valuation or sector call; label slid B69 -> WATCH 63. Realised if filled ~-at the close. 12wk 218.95 stays positive, so this is the stop rule, not L2. Re-entry blocked by Y5 until a close back above 208.68. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 742.03 | WATCH | 742.03 | 736.27 | 746.18 (+0.6%) | 757.54 (+2.1%) | 766.28 (+3.3%) | The Nasdaq-100 ETF printed a third straight BUY 66 and closed at 742.03; if the 09-30 card filled at the 10-01 open (742.51, a +0.37% gap, inside the 1.5% reprice band), hold it and raise the stop to the printed 736.27. OPERATIONAL: no add (W6 - the 6-share lot is unrecorded) even though Payoff_4W (757.54-742.03)/5.76 = 2.69x passes W3. Mark if filled -. Stop 735.44 -> 736.27 (10-01 low 736.27). Exit on a close below 736.27. SE-2: <=4-week swing. Payrolls 10-02. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 166.96 | WATCH | 166.96 | 164.25 | 167.80 (+0.5%) | 167.68 (+0.4%) | 176.60 (+5.8%) | The cloud ETF jumped 1.81% to 166.96 and flipped from WATCH 51 to a fresh BUY 75; if the 61-share fill exists, hold and raise the stop to the printed 164.25. OPERATIONAL: stop ratchets 162.28 -> 164.25 (10-01 low). Mark if filled +. No add: W6 (unrecorded lot) and W3 (Payoff_4W (167.68-166.96)/2.71 = 0.27x). · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 71.44 | EXIT IF HELD | 71.44 | 71.94 | 72.26 (+1.1%) | 73.66 (+3.1%) | 76.82 (+7.5%) | The Magnificent Seven ETF slipped 0.35% to 71.44 and fell back from BUY 69 to WATCH 63, still below the 71.94 stop it broke on 09-28; exit any remaining shares at the 10-02 open. OPERATIONAL: contingent sale executed per rule at the 09-29 open (71.76); if still held SELL 135. Y5 blocks re-entry until a close above 71.94. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 62.70 | EXIT IF HELD | 62.70 | 63.66 | 63.25 (+0.9%) | 64.60 (+3.0%) | 66.06 (+5.4%) | The energy ETF rose 1.95% to 62.70 but is still NO TRADE and on its ninth close below the 63.66 stop; exit any remaining shares at the 10-02 open. OPERATIONAL: if still held SELL 153. OPEC+ meets 10-04 (first tradable session 10-05). Y5: re-eligible only after a close above 63.66. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 197.81 | WATCH | 197.11 | 188.17 | 199.13 (+1.0%) | 203.56 (+3.3%) | 219.03 (+11.1%) | The tech-sector ETF printed a STRONG BUY 86 (BreakoutUp_52W, Buy_Rank 1) and closed at 197.81, above its 197.11 buy-stop; declined because its 4-week payoff is too thin for a 3-ATR stop. OPERATIONAL: Payoff_4W (203.56-197.11)/(197.11-188.17) = 0.72x < 1.5x (W3). The buy-stop is already through (high 198.54), so this is a post-trigger entry. Conviction swung in one print (X2). Y5 passes (above the 09-10 cut). Re-arm: a STRONG BUY/BUY print with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x (a pullback toward ~194 at the same Est_4W, or a higher Est_4W). · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 65.67 | WATCH | 65.67 | 65.06 | 65.62 (-0.1%) | 65.98 (+0.5%) | 69.44 (+5.7%) | The AI and tech ETF printed a third straight BUY (75) at 65.67; declined again because the model sees almost no 4-week upside over the stop. OPERATIONAL: Payoff_4W (65.98-65.67)/0.61 = 0.51x < 1.5x (W3). Re-arm: a BUY with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 153.25 | WATCH | 153.25 | 151.63 | 153.05 (-0.1%) | 153.19 (-0.0%) | 163.10 (+6.4%) | The quantum ETF printed BUY 69 after a NO TRADE, its third flip in four sessions; declined as a flip-flop with a negative 4-week payoff. OPERATIONAL: Payoff_4W (153.19-153.25)/1.62 = -0.04x. Re-arm: 2nd consecutive BUY with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 576.33 | WATCH | 577.17 | 532.70 | 573.92 (-0.6%) | 579.37 (+0.4%) | 596.67 (+3.4%) | The semiconductor ETF printed BUY - ANTICIPATE 80 after two WATCH 61 prints; not slot-eligible and the payoff is negligible. OPERATIONAL: ANTICIPATE in 1 of the last 3 prints (ADR-0012 needs 2). Buy-stop 577.17, stop 532.70 = 3.00 ATR; Payoff_4W (579.37-577.17)/44.47 = 0.05x (T7). Samsung prelim 10-08 is the next semis event. · news |
| — | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The VanEck semiconductor ETF rose 1.45% to 617.81 but flipped from BUY - ANTICIPATE 79 to AVOID 45 (ReversalDown_Overbought); the anticipate slot is now ineligible and the book is long-only. OPERATIONAL: the 09-30 declined buy-stop at 614.57 would have triggered (high 620.90) and closes +0.53% above it, a small cost to the decline. Same-row Consolidation_Bullish vs AVOID contradiction (Y7). |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR S&P 500 ETF printed WATCH 54 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D), below the 65 floor; no action. OPERATIONAL: close 763.99, RSI 49.2. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Consumer Staples SPDR printed WATCH 52 (ReversalUp_Oversold), below the 65 floor; no action. OPERATIONAL: close 80.33, RSI 31.8. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); no action. OPERATIONAL: close 508.62, RSI 35.2. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | iShares Russell 2000 ETF printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); no action. OPERATIONAL: close 279.02, RSI 32.9. |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); no action. OPERATIONAL: close 154.51, RSI 43.7. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Financial Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); no action. OPERATIONAL: close 53.46, RSI 25.4. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Industrial Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); no action. OPERATIONAL: close 168.64, RSI 39.0. |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Health Care Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); no action. OPERATIONAL: close 166.20, RSI 41.4. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 31.24 | WATCH | 31.24 | 31.24 | 31.37 (+0.4%) | 32.92 (+5.4%) | 36.56 (+17.0%) | Destiny Tech100 Inc printed AVOID 53 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 31.24, RSI 51.4. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 382.76 | WATCH | 382.76 | 382.76 | 384.36 (+0.4%) | 391.84 (+2.4%) | 392.81 (+2.6%) | SPDR Gold Shares ETF printed AVOID 73 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 382.76, RSI 40.5. X7 geometry (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 108.81 | WATCH | 108.39 | 111.36 | 109.61 (+1.1%) | 108.01 (-0.4%) | 112.35 (+3.7%) | Consumer Discretionary SPDR printed AVOID 73 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 108.81, RSI 34.0. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 41.95 | WATCH | 41.95 | 43.06 | 42.48 (+1.3%) | 44.84 (+6.9%) | 47.41 (+13.0%) | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) printed AVOID 63 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only book, so no position. OPERATIONAL: close 41.95, RSI 35.8. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
61 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.322 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.