Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 1 (QQQ BUY 6) / DISPOSE 0 on the recorded book; anticipate slot eligible (SMH) but declined on payoff + MU gap; contingents: MAGS exit, XLE exit, IBB + SKYY hold with raised stops
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 739.77 | BUY | 739.77 | 735.44 | 744.55 (+0.6%) | 751.45 (+1.6%) | 762.03 (+3.0%) | The Nasdaq-100 ETF printed a second straight BUY (conviction 66) and closed near its session low at 739.77 on a cooler PCE print, the only major index to finish up; buy at the 10-01 open. OPERATIONAL: the 09-29 re-arm fired exactly as written (2nd consecutive BUY, adj 66-1 = 65 >= 65, Payoff_4W (751.45-739.77)/4.33 = 2.70x >= 1.5x W3). Y5 passed (739.77 > 708.69 09-10 cut stop). Sizing 49.24% x conservative NAV (V7) x 20% = / 739.77 = =. Stop 735.44 = 0.50 ATR (provisional, sub-0.75-ATR denominator, W3 corollary). L8: reprice if the open gaps >1.5% from 739.77. SE-2: 4-week swing, not a position hold. Payrolls 10-02 is the event risk. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 210.53 | WATCH | 210.53 | 208.68 | 211.71 (+0.6%) | 215.35 (+2.3%) | 227.75 (+8.2%) | The biotech ETF printed a fifth straight BUY (69) and closed at 210.53, above its stop; hold if the 09-28 fill exists and raise the stop to the printed 208.68. OPERATIONAL: 09-25 card IBB @208.27 still unrecorded (ADR-0019). Stop ratchets 208.22 -> 208.68 (09-30 low 209.89). Mark if filled +. Payoff_4W now (215.35-210.53)/1.85 = 2.61x passes W3, but W forbids stacking on an unrecorded lot and conviction is decaying -> 69; no add. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 163.99 | WATCH | 163.99 | 162.28 | 164.86 (+0.5%) | 166.04 (+1.3%) | 174.81 (+6.6%) | The cloud ETF rose 0.76% to 163.99 on a WATCH 51 print; hold if the 61-share fill exists and raise the stop to the printed 162.28. OPERATIONAL: stop ratchets 161.03 -> 162.28 (low 163.55). Mark if filled +. Degradation counter 0 (WATCH, not NT/Conflicted). Exit on a close below 162.28 or 2 NT/Conflicted prints. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 71.69 | WATCH | 71.69 | 71.94 | 72.55 (+1.2%) | 73.58 (+2.6%) | 77.99 (+8.8%) | The Magnificent Seven ETF re-printed BUY 69 but closed at 71.69, still below the stop it broke on 09-28; if the 135-share lot is still held, sell at the 10-01 open. OPERATIONAL: the contingent sale executed per rule at the 09-29 open (71.76); the 09-30 open was 71.58. Y5: not re-eligible until a close back above 71.94, so the fresh BUY (payoff 3.5x) is declined; a first BUY after NT x2 also fails the flip-flop discipline. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 61.50 | WATCH | 61.50 | 63.66 | 62.11 (+1.0%) | 64.09 (+4.2%) | 65.09 (+5.8%) | The energy ETF closed at 61.50, its eighth close below the stop, still NO TRADE; if the 153-share lot is still held, sell at the 10-01 open. OPERATIONAL: unrecorded either way (ADR-0019); 09-30 open 61.82. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 65.16 | WATCH | 65.16 | 64.70 | 65.14 (-0.0%) | 64.91 (-0.4%) | 68.58 (+5.2%) | The AI & tech ETF printed a second straight BUY at 74 but its 4-week estimate (64.91) sits below the 65.16 entry, so the trade pays nothing for its risk. OPERATIONAL: adj 74-1 = 73; Payoff_4W (64.91-65.16)/0.46 = -0.54x fails W3. Not a broad up-session (DIA -0.84%), so V4's lag-artefact excuse does not apply. Re-arm: BUY with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 195.75 | WATCH | 195.75 | 194.33 | 197.07 (+0.7%) | 201.28 (+2.8%) | 213.98 (+9.3%) | The tech sector ETF flipped from NO TRADE x2 to BUY 69 with a strong 3.89x payoff, but a single BUY after NO TRADE has been the flip-flop signature all month. OPERATIONAL: adj 68; re-arm = 2nd consecutive BUY with adj >= 65 and Payoff_4W >= 1.5x, at the live Entry_Price. · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 609.00 | BUY-STOP | 614.57 | 575.69 | 609.01 (-0.9%) | 615.63 (+0.2%) | 645.90 (+5.1%) | The semiconductor ETF is anticipate-eligible again (ANTICIPATE in 2 of the last 3 prints, conviction 79) but the buy-stop at 614.57 pays 0.03x against a 3-ATR stop, and Micron's record quarter lands at the 10-01 open. OPERATIONAL: Payoff_4W (615.63-614.57)/38.88 = 0.03x fails W3 (T7 stop geometry); L no queue into a post-earnings gap; anticipate counterfactual n=24 median -4.82% [saved]. · news |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The semiconductor ETF held WATCH 61, below the 65 floor. OPERATIONAL: adj 60; Payoff_4W (567.76-568.64)/7.27 < 0. |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The S&P 500 ETF recovered from NO TRADE to WATCH 44, far below the floor, and fell 0.21%. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The quantum ETF fell back to NO TRADE a session after a BUY, the flip-flop pattern again. NoTrade_Reason: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The health-care ETF dropped from three straight decaying BUYs (80/70/66) to NO TRADE and fell 1.35%; the 09-29 WATCH decline is vindicated. NoTrade_Reason: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg printed NO TRADE (508.55). NoTrade_Reason: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | iShares Russell 2000 ETF printed NO TRADE (277.89). NoTrade_Reason: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Financial Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE (53.40). NoTrade_Reason: "Consensus conflict + low conviction". |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The consumer staples ETF moved from AVOID to WATCH 50 (ReversalUp_Oversold, RSI 32.9) after a -1.53% day; below the floor. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 30.85 | WATCH | 30.85 | 30.85 | 31.11 (+0.8%) | 32.47 (+5.3%) | 36.18 (+17.3%) | Destiny Tech100 Inc printed AVOID 62 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, no position. X7 geometry applies to FailedBreakout_Down_20D rows (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 380.84 | WATCH | 380.84 | 380.84 | 380.60 (-0.1%) | 389.19 (+2.2%) | 387.26 (+1.7%) | SPDR Gold Shares ETF printed AVOID 56 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, no position. X7 geometry applies to FailedBreakout_Down_20D rows (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 157.68 | WATCH | 157.68 | 157.68 | 158.38 (+0.4%) | 159.59 (+1.2%) | 172.54 (+9.4%) | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF printed AVOID 65 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, no position. X7 geometry applies to FailedBreakout_Down_20D rows (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 166.98 | WATCH | 166.98 | 170.95 | 167.90 (+0.6%) | 171.65 (+2.8%) | 173.64 (+4.0%) | Industrial Select Sector SPDR printed AVOID 56 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only book, no position. X7 geometry applies to FailedBreakout_Down_20D rows (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 108.84 | WATCH | 108.46 | 111.41 | 109.50 (+1.0%) | 107.13 (-1.2%) | 111.69 (+3.0%) | Consumer Discretionary SPDR printed AVOID 48 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only book, no position. X7 geometry applies to FailedBreakout_Down_20D rows (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 42.31 | WATCH | 42.31 | 43.69 | 42.76 (+1.1%) | 45.10 (+6.6%) | 46.93 (+10.9%) | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) printed AVOID 63 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only book, no position. X7 geometry applies to FailedBreakout_Down_20D rows (Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
60 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.275 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.