Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION - ACQUIRE 0 / DISPOSE 0 on the recorded book; anticipate slot eligible (SMH) but declined on payoff; contingents: MAGS exit, XLE exit, IBB + SKYY hold with raised stops
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 211.04 | WATCH | 211.04 | 208.22 | 212.11 (+0.5%) | 215.07 (+1.9%) | 227.33 (+7.7%) | iShares Biotech ETF printed a fourth straight BUY (conviction 75) and closed at 211.04, above its stop; hold if the 09-28 fill exists and raise the stop to the printed 208.22. OPERATIONAL: 09-25 card IBB 46 MOO 09-@208.27 still unrecorded (ADR-0019) -> trade buy sectoretf IBB @208.27 or trade skip. Mark if filled + (+1.33%). Stop ratchets 207.78 -> 208.22 (09-29 low 208.22 never touched 207.78); never lower. No add: Payoff_4W (215.07-211.04)/2.82 = 1.43x < 1.5x (W3) and W6 forbids stacking on an unrecorded lot. adj 75-1 = 74. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 71.39 | WATCH | 71.39 | 71.94 | 72.15 (+1.1%) | 73.39 (+2.8%) | 77.53 (+8.6%) | The Magnificent Seven ETF stayed below its stop (close 71.39) on a second NO TRADE print; the exit instructed for the 09-29 open stands, and if it was not taken, sell all 135 at the 09-30 open. OPERATIONAL: the 09-29 open 71.76 was +0.34% vs the 71.52 reference (inside the 1.5% band) -> the contingent sale executes per rule at ~71.76 (-vs the 72.57 fill). Branch A' (resting stop 71.51) already booked in the conservative NAV. Record trade sell sectoretf MAGS @71.76 or trade skip. Y5: not re-eligible until a close back above 71.94. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 61.54 | WATCH | 61.54 | 63.66 | 62.12 (+0.9%) | 64.82 (+5.3%) | 64.94 (+5.5%) | The energy ETF closed at 61.54 (-0.90%), its seventh close below the stop, still NO TRADE; the 09-29-open exit stands, else sell 153 at the 09-30 open. OPERATIONAL: the 09-29 open 61.15 gapped -1.53% vs the 62.10 reference, just past the ~1.5% reprice band; an exit with an unchanged basis executes anyway (the gap was adverse, not a reversal). Record trade sell or skip (ADR-0019). · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 162.75 | WATCH | 162.75 | 161.03 | 163.72 (+0.6%) | 166.15 (+2.1%) | 173.54 (+6.6%) | The cloud-computing ETF held above its stop (low 161.11, close 162.75) with the signal at WATCH 59; hold if filled and raise the stop to the printed 161.03. OPERATIONAL: stop ratchets 160.31 -> 161.03; never lower. Degradation counter 0 (WATCH is not NT/Conflicted). Mark if filled 61 x (162.75-162.02) = +. Exit on a close below 161.03 or 2 NT/Conflicted prints; no add. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 737.93 | WATCH | 737.93 | 733.41 | 743.61 (+0.8%) | 748.98 (+1.5%) | 762.11 (+3.3%) | Nasdaq-100 printed BUY 66 with a four-week estimate that pays 2.4x its risk, but the signal has alternated BUY and NO TRADE every session for five sessions, so it is not stable enough to buy. OPERATIONAL: trail BUY69 -> NT0 -> BUY66 -> NT0 -> BUY66; adj 65 (bias -1), exactly on the floor. Payoff_4W (748.98-737.93)/4.52 = 2.44x passes W3. Y5 ok (close 737.93 > 09-10 cut stop 708.69). Re-arm: a 2nd consecutive BUY with adj >= 65 AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x -> BUY at the live Entry_Price next EOD. · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 151.87 | WATCH | 151.87 | 150.46 | 151.79 (-0.1%) | 150.94 (-0.6%) | 162.29 (+6.9%) | The quantum-computing ETF printed BUY 76 straight after a NO TRADE, and its four-week estimate sits below the entry, so there is no payoff to buy. OPERATIONAL: trail WATCH57 -> BUY75 -> NT0 -> BUY76 (flip-flop); adj 75; Payoff_4W (150.94-151.87)/1.41 = -0.66x < 1.5x (W3). Re-arm: 2nd consecutive BUY AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 65.05 | WATCH | 65.05 | 64.54 | 65.22 (+0.3%) | 64.53 (-0.8%) | 69.23 (+6.4%) | The AI & tech ETF printed BUY 69 after two NO TRADE sessions, but the four-week estimate is below the entry. OPERATIONAL: adj 68; Payoff_4W (64.53-65.05)/0.51 = -1.02x (W3 fail); flip-flop (1st BUY). Y5 ok (65.05 > 63.90 cut stop). Re-arm: 2nd consecutive BUY AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 170.73 | WATCH | 170.73 | 168.83 | 171.05 (+0.2%) | 170.80 (+0.0%) | 169.05 (-1.0%) | Health Care Select printed a third straight BUY but conviction keeps decaying -> 66) and the twelve-week estimate is below the close, so the trade does not pay for its risk. OPERATIONAL: adj 65; Payoff_4W (170.80-170.73)/1.90 = 0.04x < 1.5x (W3); Est_12W 169.05 < close 170.73 (SE-2 fail). Re-arm unchanged: BUY adj >= 65 AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 606.90 | WATCH | 611.13 | 566.99 | 608.57 (-0.4%) | 613.96 (+0.5%) | 647.06 (+5.9%) | The VanEck semiconductor ETF is eligible for the anticipate slot (2 of the last 3 prints, conviction 77), but its 3-ATR stop means the four-week estimate pays almost nothing for the risk, so the buy-stop is not queued. OPERATIONAL: AnticipationUp_VCP BUY-ANTICIPATE 81 -> NT0 -> 77; live cell n=1 report-only (bias 0). Printed Buy Stop @611.13, stop 566.99 (3.00 ATR); Payoff_4W (613.96-611.13)/44.14 = 0.06x (W3 fail, T7 geometry). Anticipate counterfactual n=24 median -4.82% [saved] supports the decline. MU FQ4 after the 09-30 close is a direct read-through event -> no pre-event queue (L6). Re-arm: ANTICIPATE print with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The iShares semiconductor ETF recovered to WATCH 61, below the buy floor, with a flat four-week estimate. OPERATIONAL: adj 60; Payoff_4W 0.07x; NT0 on 09-28 -> WATCH 61. |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so there is no setup. OPERATIONAL: close 512.88, RSI 38.8; restart the 2-consecutive-BUY count. |
| — | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR S&P 500 ETF printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so there is no setup. OPERATIONAL: close 764.20, RSI 49.2; restart the 2-consecutive-BUY count. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | iShares Russell 2000 ETF printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so there is no setup. OPERATIONAL: close 279.01, RSI 31.1; restart the 2-consecutive-BUY count. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Financial Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so there is no setup. OPERATIONAL: close 54.01, RSI 27.7; restart the 2-consecutive-BUY count. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Industrial Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so there is no setup. OPERATIONAL: close 169.13, RSI 37.3; restart the 2-consecutive-BUY count. |
| — | Tech Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Tech Select Sector SPDR printed NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so there is no setup. OPERATIONAL: close 194.50, RSI 61.1; restart the 2-consecutive-BUY count. |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 81.85 | WATCH | 81.85 | 81.85 | 82.11 (+0.3%) | 82.73 (+1.1%) | 84.78 (+3.6%) | Consumer Staples SPDR prints AVOID 66 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position and no short. OPERATIONAL: close 81.85 (X7: Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 109.15 | WATCH | 108.68 | 111.77 | 110.37 (+1.6%) | 107.60 (-1.0%) | 111.59 (+2.7%) | Consumer Discretionary SPDR prints AVOID 68 (BreakdownDown_20D); long-only book, so no position and no short. OPERATIONAL: close 109.15 (bearish family). · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 382.89 | WATCH | 382.89 | 382.89 | 379.59 (-0.9%) | 386.68 (+1.0%) | 388.04 (+1.3%) | SPDR Gold Shares ETF prints AVOID 69 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position and no short. OPERATIONAL: close 382.89 (X7: Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 42.42 | WATCH | 42.42 | 43.91 | 43.07 (+1.5%) | 45.48 (+7.2%) | 46.98 (+10.7%) | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) prints AVOID 63 (RallySell_BearTrend); long-only book, so no position and no short. OPERATIONAL: close 42.42 (bearish family). · news |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 30.64 | WATCH | 30.64 | 30.64 | 30.93 (+0.9%) | 32.37 (+5.6%) | 36.56 (+19.3%) | Destiny Tech100 Inc prints AVOID 57 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position and no short. OPERATIONAL: close 30.64 (X7: Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 156.81 | WATCH | 156.81 | 156.81 | 157.65 (+0.5%) | 161.28 (+2.9%) | 168.46 (+7.4%) | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF prints AVOID 65 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D); long-only book, so no position and no short. OPERATIONAL: close 156.81 (X7: Stop == Entry, blank target). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
60 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.275 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.