Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION; XLV SB83 declined (W3 0.35x, buy-stop below close, X2); MAGS B73 declined (W3 1.46x); contingent exits SKYY/SPY/QQQ/AIQ/IBB if held
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 5 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 164.02 | SELL 49.24% | 164.02 | 164.25 | 165.07 (+0.6%) | 170.54 (+4.0%) | 174.58 (+6.4%) | Cloud software fell -4.37% on the hot-CPI tech sell-off and closed 164.02, below BOTH written stops (169.30 on the; 164.25 on the, a marginal 0.05-ATR breach on a closing basis). SELL ALL at the 10-15 open only if held (, ADR-0019 unrecorded). The new BUY print is declined: its limit 168.90 sits 1.05 ATR ABOVE the close (Y1) with Payoff_4W 0.31x, and Y5 blocks re-entry until a close > 169.30. · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 30.04 | WATCH | 30.04 | 31.44 | 30.43 (+1.3%) | 32.30 (+7.5%) | 37.05 (+23.3%) | AVOID 48 RallySell_BearTrend; long-only book, stand aside. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 769.60 | SELL | 769.60 | 775.14 | 772.72 (+0.4%) | 780.15 (+1.4%) | 788.93 (+2.5%) | The S&P fell -1.08% on the hot CPI print and SPY closed 769.60, decisively below the 775.14 stop on one-share lot. SELL that at the 10-15 open only if held; the second holds on its 766.13 stop (low 766.71). Label NO TRADE 0. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 728.95 | SELL | 728.95 | 736.27 | 732.50 (+0.5%) | 746.64 (+2.4%) | 755.61 (+3.7%) | The Nasdaq-100 fell -1.97% on hot CPI and the chip sell-off; QQQ closed 728.95, below the 736.27 written stop, and the label decayed WATCH. SELL the at the 10-15 open only if held. Y5 blocks re-entry until a close > 736.27. · news |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| — | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 63.94 | SELL | 63.94 | 66.10 | 64.03 (+0.1%) | 66.99 (+4.8%) | 70.00 (+9.5%) | AI/tech fell -2.90% to 63.94, a third close below the 66.10 written stop with the label stuck at WATCH 52. SELL ALL at the 10-15 open only if still held ( and/or, ADR-0019 unrecorded). Y5 block until a close > 66.10. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 375.99 | WATCH | 375.99 | 379.30 | 379.73 (+1.0%) | 385.22 (+2.5%) | 397.01 (+5.6%) | AVOID 65 RallySell_BearTrend; long-only book, stand aside. · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 564.74 | WATCH | 564.74 | 556.29 | 573.75 (+1.6%) | 586.24 (+3.8%) | 627.47 (+11.1%) | WATCH 55 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and RSI<75. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 203.25 | SELL | 203.25 | 208.68 | 203.91 (+0.3%) | 205.26 (+1.0%) | 206.48 (+1.6%) | Biotech bounced +1.61% to 203.25 but remains below the 208.68 written stop and now prints AVOID 57 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D). SELL the at the 10-15 open only if still held. Y5 block until a close > 208.68. · news |
| — | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 54.52 | WATCH | 54.52 | 54.88 | 54.85 (+0.6%) | 55.39 (+1.6%) | 56.64 (+3.9%) | AVOID 54 RallySell_BearTrend; long-only book, stand aside. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 67.63 | WATCH | 67.63 | 69.08 | 67.33 (-0.4%) | 69.02 (+2.1%) | 71.70 (+6.0%) | Energy +0.64% to 67.63 but the label flipped BUY-ANTICIPATE -> AVOID 47 (ReversalDown_Overbought, RSI 71.1); anticipate slot ineligible (current conviction 47 < 55). Contingent : HOLD on the 64.40 stop. An AVOID label is not a sell origination on its own. · news |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 167.04 | WATCH | 167.04 | 169.87 | 167.23 (+0.1%) | 168.41 (+0.8%) | 169.25 (+1.3%) | AVOID 56 RallySell_BearTrend; long-only book, stand aside. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 190.43 | WATCH | 190.43 | 188.66 | 192.26 (+1.0%) | 199.76 (+4.9%) | 209.16 (+9.8%) | WATCH 55 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and RSI<75. · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 86.06 | WATCH | 85.31 | 82.74 | 86.68 (+1.6%) | 88.09 (+3.3%) | 87.87 (+3.0%) | WATCH 51 BreakoutUp_20D, below the 65 floor. Re-arm: BUY >=65 with Payoff_4W >=1.5x and RSI<75. · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 111.50 | WATCH | 111.50 | 112.63 | 111.64 (+0.1%) | 111.61 (+0.1%) | 113.56 (+1.8%) | AVOID 44 RallySell_BearTrend; long-only book, stand aside. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 39.73 | WATCH | 39.73 | 41.06 | 40.70 (+2.4%) | 42.10 (+6.0%) | 45.11 (+13.5%) | AVOID 65 RallySell_BearTrend; long-only book, stand aside. · news |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE: Consensus conflict + low conviction. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
73 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.322 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.