This website is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and assess your own risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

US End-of-Day Verdict 11 Sept 2026, 16:00:00 GMT-4 Decided by: AI 🤖

Berkshire Mirror — End-of-Day Verdict

EOD 2026-09-14

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Total-Return Index 99.4 -1.0% (4W) Performance ›

Today's recommendations

0 to acquire · 3 to dispose

TickerNameCloseActionAction Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. Rationale
BACBank of America Corp59.47SELL 30%59.4758.50n/an/a59.57 (+0.2%)Bank of America broke decisively through its trailing risk line on a 5% drop after its CEO guided trading revenue flat and investment-banking fees down 10-20%, and the model's twelve-week view is now flat. It is the book's largest position, so we take the minimum 30% off and keep the rest on a tighter line. Close vs trail = -2.95% / -1.07 ATR on 2.1x volume; engine NoTrade cv0 'Liquidity gate failed' (gate artifact on a mega-cap - systemic finding). Target_12Week = +0.17% (dead view, <1.02x). ASSUMPTION: flat 12wk + >1 ATR break of the book's own stop treated as the risk-defined exit; minimum tier because 12wk is not negative and close is 6.2% above EMA200. Not a profit-take: Unreal -1.10%, disarmed. OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.454 - no tier change. x 30% =. Balance re-based stop (09-14 low - 0.25 ATR); next rung: close below -> SELL 50% of balance. 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price on NoTrade row); f=0.30 (calib_1w -0.078). · news
CBChubb Ltd341.85SELL 30%341.85330.89n/an/a318.53 (-6.8%)Chubb is printing a strong reduce signal again with a twelve-week view ~7% lower, but it screens as undervalued and the last identical signal faded within a day, so we trim only the minimum and keep 70%. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv73 FailedBreakout_Down_20D (+1) -> adj 74, Sell_Rank #6, engine Portion 88.52% (bleed). Late-flip (SSELL-RED 77 -> NT -> NT -> SSELL-RED 73); 09-09 card withdrawn 09-10. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.008 -> minimum tier. +1.06% session, above stop and EMA200. Counterfactual optional_trim median 1wk -0.57% (n=161) argues against zero. x 30% =. Balance, stop re-based; next rung: 2nd consecutive REDUCE >= cv65 or close < -> 50% of balance. 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price on REDUCE row); 12wk = -6.82%. · news
KHCKraft Heinz Co24.27SELL ALL24.2724.87⚠24.23 (-0.2%)24.15 (-0.5%)22.27 (-8.2%)Kraft Heinz closed below its risk line for a fourth straight session - wider than when we sold half - and its twelve-week outlook has slipped to ~8% lower, so we exit the remaining position as the prior card planned. L2: close vs stop = -2.41% / -0.91 ATR (widened from -1.09%), 2nd close below EMA200, Target_12Week = -8.24%; position -4.34% on cost. Engine AVOID cv52 RallySell_BearTrend (-8 -> adj 44), so origination is L2 not signal. FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.618 - no tier change. Escalation ladder completes (09-11: half now, balance on next break). First NYSE session - mechanical. 1wk (f=0.30), 4wk (Target_Price), 12wk. · news
AAPLApple Inc333.08NO ACTION—320.36n/an/a356.50Apple remains the book's strongest, highest-conviction holding with a positive twelve-week view and an iPhone launch weekend ahead, so we raise the protective stop rather than cut the winner. PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 3.08, T12 93.4%) + RSI_DIV = tick (a); signal FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv90 is outside G1's literal family list - G1 applied in spirit (cv>=80, Mostly_Aligned, +15.1% over EMA200, 12wk = +7.0%), catalyst-aware hold (iPhone 18 Pro first retail weekend 18-Sep). G2 suppresses valuation (12wk >> DCF). OPTIONAL untaken 30% = ledgered for counterfactual grading. Chandelier - 2x7.93 =. Re-arm: second tick -> SELL 50%.
COFCapital One Financial Corp206.68NO ACTION—210.24⚠n/an/a199.12Capital One has closed below its risk line twice with a worsening twelve-week view, which qualifies it for a half trim, but it lost the third sell slot to larger positions tonight; it becomes the first sell tomorrow if it stays below the line. Close vs = -1.69% / -0.79 ATR (2nd consecutive), 12wk = -3.66% (from -1.93%), close below EMA200. OPTIONAL untaken 50% = / ESCALATION: DISPOSE #1 next EOD if close <.
GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl A349.39NO ACTION—333.68n/an/a309.80Alphabet rose 3% as AI megacaps rallied, the reduce print is a one-session flip that faded last time, and a court deadline lands in two sessions - we hold through the event. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv70 (+ late-flip; close above stop and EMA200. 12wk = -11.3%. OPTIONAL untaken engine reduce 88.52% ledgered. RE-ARM: decisive close below after 16-Sep, or confirmed lower high. · news
GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl C345.71NO ACTION—320.20n/an/a304.00Same call as the A shares: a one-session reduce flip on a +3% AI-led rally, with the ad-tech deadline two sessions out - hold through the event. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv70 (+; close above stop. 12wk = -12.1%. OPTIONAL untaken 88.52% ledgered. RE-ARM: decisive close below after 16-Sep. · news
CVXChevron Corp212.17HOLD—208.07n/an/a249.66Armed (Gain_ATR 8.97, +25.4%) but no tick: NT flip governed by (d), prints not consecutive; 12wk = 1.177x close. Chandelier - 2x4.79 =. One more NT print on 09-15 fires tick (d) -> 30% profit-take on the-sh balance.
VRSNVeriSign Inc298.60HOLD—287.69n/an/a312.95Armed (Gain_ATR 5.52), HOLD cv93 AnticipationUp_VCP, no tick. Chandelier - 2x7.65 =.
KOCoca-Cola Co89.35HOLD—87.69n/an/a92.91Armed (Gain_ATR 3.90), HOLD cv65, no tick. Chandelier (10d high) - 2x1.34 =.
NUENucor Corp254.63HOLD—253.64n/an/a262.17Armed (Gain_ATR 4.57), HOLD cv56, -12 < 20), no tick. Chandelier - 2x7.41 = (0.4% below close - tight by construction).
ALLYAlly Financial Inc41.94HOLD—41.63n/an/a36.25NT cv0 x; close only 0.74% above stop; 12wk = -13.6%. L2 fires on first close below.
DVADaVita Inc189.32HOLD—169.18n/an/a142.47STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv64 RallySell_BearTrend (-8) -> adj 56, below floor; close 11.9% above stop; 12wk -24.7%, MoS -3.47 do not originate (CLAUDE.md s).
MCOMoody's Corp477.93HOLD—450.30n/an/a450.03NT cv0 x2; close >; 12wk -5.8%; not armed (-2.18%) so tick (d) n/a.
SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc29.37HOLD—27.96n/an/a28.00HOLD cv57 (from SSELL-RED 65); standing DB-upgrade news override; close > re-arm.
LLYVKLiberty Live Group Ser C98.86HOLD—98.69n/an/a85.31Balance; close reclaimed (+0.18%). Next close below -> sell balance.
LLYVALiberty Live Group Ser A95.81HOLD—91.97n/an/a82.90NT cv0; close >; 12wk = -13.5%. No break.
MMacy's Inc22.58HOLD—22.49n/an/a18.69STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv76 Sell_Rank #2; / - immaterial.
LENLennar Corp Cl A79.99HOLD—82.64⚠n/an/a62.67STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 Sell_Rank #; breach -3.21%; / - immaterial.
LEN-BLennar Corp Cl B78.67HOLD—81.78⚠n/an/a62.26STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv78 Sell_Rank #1; breach -3.80%; / - immaterial.
NVRNVR Inc6299.56HOLD—6105.18n/an/a5632.77STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 Sell_Rank #4; / - immaterial. Close > carried stop.
STZConstellation Brands Cl A125.00HOLD—128.36⚠n/an/a95.09STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 Sell_Rank #5; breach -2.62%; / - immaterial.
NYTNew York Times Co Cl A70.34HOLD—64.15n/an/a60.29AVOID cv0 NoSignal; close >;.
KRKroger Co60.91HOLD—54.87n/an/a57.13AVOID cv0 NoSignal; close >;.

Outcome & track record

How accurate the calls have been.

173 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.078 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.

Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.

How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.

  • FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (sell): 6 past trades, 20% hit the 1-week target → -6 conviction nudge.
  • FailedBreakout_Down_20D (sell): 53 past trades, 53% hit the 1-week target → +1 conviction nudge.
  • NoTrade (sell): 58 past trades, 48% hit the 1-week target → no conviction nudge.
  • PullbackBuy_VWAP (buy): 9 past trades, 56% hit the 1-week target → +1 conviction nudge.
  • RallySell_BearTrend (sell): 16 past trades, 8% hit the 1-week target → -8 conviction nudge.

Portfolio & signals

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

TickerNameCloseSignal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept. ActionConv1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.
VRSNHVeriSign Inc298.60AnticipationUp_VCPHOLD93314.88 (+5.5%)347.00 (+16.2%)312.95 (+4.8%)
AAPLHApple Inc333.08FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD90337.84 (+1.4%)348.94 (+4.8%)356.50 (+7.0%)
LEN-BHLennar Corp Cl B78.67FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE78n/an/a62.26 (-20.9%)
MHMacy's Inc22.58FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE76n/an/a18.69 (-17.2%)
LENHLennar Corp Cl A79.99FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE75n/an/a62.67 (-21.7%)
STZHConstellation Brands Cl A125.00FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE75n/an/a95.09 (-23.9%)
NVRHNVR Inc6299.56FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE75n/an/a5632.77 (-10.6%)
CBHChubb Ltd341.85FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE73n/an/a318.53 (-6.8%)
GOOGLHAlphabet Inc Cl A349.39FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE70n/an/a309.80 (-11.3%)
GOOGHAlphabet Inc Cl C345.71FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE70n/an/a304.00 (-12.1%)
KOHCoca-Cola Co89.35FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD6590.15 (+0.9%)92.02 (+3.0%)92.91 (+4.0%)
DVAHDaVita Inc189.32RallySell_BearTrendSTRONG SELL - REDUCE64n/an/a142.47 (-24.7%)
SIRIHSirius XM Holdings Inc29.37FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD5729.82 (+1.5%)30.86 (+5.1%)28.00 (-4.7%)
NUEHNucor Corp254.63FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD56259.08 (+1.7%)269.46 (+5.8%)262.17 (+3.0%)
KHCHKraft Heinz Co24.27RallySell_BearTrendAVOID5224.23 (-0.2%)24.15 (-0.5%)22.27 (-8.2%)
COFHCapital One Financial Corp206.68RallySell_BearTrendAVOID52206.27 (-0.2%)205.30 (-0.7%)199.12 (-3.7%)
BACHBank of America Corp59.47NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a59.57 (+0.2%)
CVXHChevron Corp212.17NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a249.66 (+17.7%)
MCOHMoody's Corp477.93NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a450.03 (-5.8%)
KRHKroger Co60.91NoSignalAVOID0n/an/a57.13 (-6.2%)
NYTHNew York Times Co Cl A70.34NoSignalAVOID0n/an/a60.29 (-14.3%)
ALLYHAlly Financial Inc41.94NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a36.25 (-13.6%)
LLYVKHLiberty Live Group Ser C98.86NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a85.31 (-13.7%)
LLYVAHLiberty Live Group Ser A95.81NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a82.90 (-13.5%)
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp61.78AnticipationUp_VCPBUY - ANTICIPATE7864.98 (+5.2%)71.06 (+15.0%)69.59 (+12.6%)
AXPAmerican Express Co327.78FailedBreakout_Down_20DAVOID75n/an/a287.16 (-12.4%)
LPXLouisiana-Pacific Corp66.79FailedBreakout_Down_20DAVOID68n/an/a49.53 (-25.8%)
JEFJefferies Financial Group50.10BreakdownDown_20DAVOID6147.24 (-5.7%)38.50 (-23.2%)44.11 (-12.0%)
DALDelta Air Lines Inc79.80NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a64.84 (-18.7%)

Archive

Earlier end-of-day records.

This website is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and assess your own risk tolerance before making investment decisions.