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US End-of-Day Verdict 30 Jul 2026, 16:00:00 GMT-4 Decided by: AI 🤖

Berkshire Mirror — End-of-Day Verdict

EOD 2026-07-31

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Today's recommendations

0 to acquire · 6 to dispose

TickerNameCloseActionAction Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. Rationale
NYTNew York Times Co Cl A74.89SELL 30%74.8970.39n/an/a71.34 (-4.7%)Trimming a quarter-turn out of The New York Times because the position has reached its 12-week objective and the model's forward view has gone negative: the 12-week estimate of now sits 4.7% BELOW the close, so the remaining reward no longer justifies the full stake. This is a valuation-neutral, discipline-driven profit-take on a high-quality holding (F-Score 9, #2 quality rank in the book), not a change of view on the business - we keep 70% of the position. We are taking the minimum tier rather than a deeper cut because the engine's forward read on this name has been unreliable and no Q2 date is confirmed. ADR-0012: armed on T12_Progress 104.98 + tick (c) dead 12wk. Tick (b) (cv DISCOUNTED - NoTrade rows print cv0 structurally, not as a graded decline (see OXY 69-0-68, CVX 79-0-60, SIRI 100-0-60). Only 1 genuine tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%. Cell NoTrade|sell -5 (n=10, hit.25) and the 07-23 NYT NoTrade 50% graded a bad sell (missed +10.72% 1wk) both argue for the minimum tier. Unconfirmed Q2 catalyst treated as live: cap, do not extend. 12wk exceeds DCF anchor 68.16 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Keep stop 70.39. · news
GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl A356.13NO ACTION356.13329.02n/an/a301.01 (-15.5%)Overriding the model's sell signal on Alphabet and holding the full position. The signal fired on the very session the shares rallied 6.7% off a blowout quarter - revenue up 24% to, earnings of a share against expected, and Google Cloud up 82% with a backlog. The brief dip that preceded it was a reaction to raised AI capex guidance, not to the business, and that concern is already reversing. With the stock 1% below our cost there is no profit to bank and no loss to stop; we raise the trailing stop to and stay long. TECHNICAL DETAIL: the sell is ONE print deep (NO TRADE cv0 x3 -> SELL) and internally contradictory - its own pillars read Trend 69 / Momentum 67 / Mostly_Aligned and its Stop_Price 329.02 prints BELOW spot (same long-side-stop artifact flagged on AXP 07-30, 3rd occurrence). Close 356.13 (+6.73%) reclaimed VWAP (-3.39% -> +3.16%), RSI 42..3, above EMA20/50/200 (344.83/351.52/320.81). Would have been 88.52% = =. Selling this into a 24%-growth quarter is the sell-side twin of the L6 gap-chase. Trail RAISED 312..02. · news
GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl C356.65NO ACTION356.65329.56n/an/a305.81 (-14.3%)Same override as the Class A shares: holding Alphabet's C line through a model sell that fired on a 6.9% up-day following a 24% revenue-growth quarter with cloud up 82%. The position sits fractionally above cost, so there is nothing to bank; we lift the trailing stop to and stay long. Close 356.65 (+6.88%), Trend 69 / Momentum 67, +0.13% vs 356.18 cost. Would have been 88.52% = =. Trail RAISED 312..56. · news
CVXChevron Corp196.83NO ACTION197.78189.50205.01 (+3.7%)227.42 (+15.0%)211.07 (+6.7%)Cancelling the mechanical profit-trim on Chevron and holding the full position, up 16.3%. Q2 landed the morning of 31 July and was exceptional - net income against a year ago, revenue up 56% to, adjusted earnings of a share beating consensus by 8.8%, and cost-reduction targets hit ahead of schedule. The stock closed up 2.35% on it and is breaking out with a 12-week view still 7% higher, so the only thing arguing for a trim is a momentum-divergence flag - exactly the reading that has been wrong on this name every previous time. We raise nothing and keep the trail. ADR-0012 detail: armed (Gain_ATR 5.80, T12prog 93.25, +16.33%) + tick (a) RSI_DIV; G1's softening does NOT protect (cv 60, not >=80), so mechanically this is 30% = =. Cancelled on three grounds: (1) news override as above - the 07-30 catalyst-aware hold that blocked this exact trim has resolved in the position's favour; (2) shape - RSI_DIV on a fresh BreakoutUp_20D [BUY] row carrying a live Buy Stop @197.78, 4wk target 227.42 (+15.5%), 12wk 211.07 (+7.2%) is divergence-on-an-uptrend, the NBIS error; (3) evidence - every graded CVX sell in this book is a bad sell (07-06 missed +16.33% 4wk, 07-14 +4.37%, 07-17 +3.76%). Trail KEPT 189.50 (chandelier 187.30 lower). · news
NUENucor Corp257.29NO ACTION257.29239.04n/an/a299.86 (+16.5%)Holding Nucor for a second session against a mechanical trim trigger. The 27 July quarter was strong - adjusted earnings of a share on of sales, a second consecutive record 7.1 million tons shipped, and management raising its confidence in the second half - and the shares have simply gone sideways at the highs since (256.02, 257.04, 257.29). Flat digestion after a beat is not deterioration, and the 12-week view is still 16.5% higher, so we hold the 16.6% gain and lift the stop to. ADR-0012 detail: armed (Gain_ATR 4.00, +16.55%) + tick (d) three consecutive NO TRADE prints; would be 30% = =. BRIGHT LINE replacing further discretion: a close below 239.04 converts this to a trim with no further news exemption. Trail RAISED 236..04. · news
STZConstellation Brands Cl A130.23SELL ALL130.23136.22⚠n/an/a100.11 (-23.1%)Closing out the residual Constellation Brands stake. This is the clearest exit case in the book: the shares are below our stop, 11% under their 200-day average, and the 12-week estimate points 23% lower. The stake is worth under so the money is immaterial, but leaving a broken position on the sheet is not. Carried for a 13th session - stop breach -4.40% (130.23 vs 136.22), 12wk 100.11 (-23.2%), close 11% below EMA200 (146.14), AVOID cv61. L2 fires cleanly. =.
LENLennar Corp Cl A82.35SELL ALL82.3579.79n/an/a67.01 (-18.6%)Closing out the residual Lennar stake, worth under on a persistently negative forward view - the 12-week estimate sits 19% below the current price and the position is 6.6% underwater. Carried on the prior L2 basis, NOT on today's label: the row prints STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv63 (Sell_Rank 3) but the RallySell_BearTrend cell has degraded to -7 (n=6, hit.167), so adjusted conviction 56 fails the 65 floor. =.
LEN-BLennar Corp Cl B80.70SELL ALL80.7078.64n/an/a66.36 (-17.8%)Closing out the 9-share Lennar Class B residual alongside the Class A line - same negative 12-week view (-17.8%), same underwater position, and a stake worth that is pure administrative noise. Carried on the prior L2 basis; today's STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv63 (Sell_Rank 4) fails the floor at adjusted 56 after the RallySell_BearTrend -7 haircut.
NVRNVR Inc6147.05SELL ALL6147.055809.98n/an/a5532.23 (-10.0%)Closing out the 3-share NVR residual: the position is 8.9% underwater, the signal has been AVOID for four straight sessions, and the 12-week estimate points 10% lower. A homebuilder position this size adds nothing but housekeeping. Carried for a 13th session. =.
KRKroger Co57.74SELL ALL57.7454.53n/an/a46.31 (-19.8%)Closing out the 109-share Kroger residual. The technical case is decisive - AVOID for four sessions, price below the 200-day average, and a 12-week estimate 19.8% lower - and although the valuation screen reads marginally undervalued (margin of safety +0.04, essentially zero), valuation never originates or blocks an exit here. Worth Carried for a 13th session.
AXPAmerican Express Co336.25HOLD336.25320.07n/an/a331.95 (-1.3%)Holding American Express and raising the stop to. The signal has been a neutral avoid for four straight sessions - not a sell instruction - and with the position 4.5% underwater there is no profit to protect and no stop break to act on. The 12-week view is roughly flat, so this is a watch, not a trade. AVOID x4 (cv 62/52/57/56); AVOID is not a REDUCE and does not enter the sell pool. Row's 352.43 stop prints ABOVE spot - short-side artifact, rejected. Trail RAISED 319..07 (2.0xATR).
VRSNVeriSign Inc290.02HOLD290.02265.73297.31 (+2.5%)314.31 (+8.4%)305.12 (+5.2%)Holding VeriSign, the strongest signal in the book, and raising the stop to. The position has reached its 12-week objective, which would normally arm a profit-take, but conviction is still RISING and both the 4-week and 12-week views point higher - so we ratchet the trailing stop instead of cutting a winner. Up 13.1%. ADR-0012: armed (T12prog 95.05, Gain_ATR 2.77) but NOT fired - conviction and 12wk 305.12 clears 1.02x290.02 = 295.82. Highest conviction print in the book (cv75). The 07-23 withdrawal at 261.58 is now +10.9% better. Trail RAISED 263..73 (= model stop).
COFCapital One Financial Corp209.01HOLD209.01198.93n/an/a227.60 (+8.9%)Holding Capital One with the stop at. The position is near its 12-week objective but the forward view is still 8.9% higher and the signal has gone quiet for only one session, so there is nothing here that warrants trimming a modest 1.9% gain. ADR-0012: armed (T12prog 91.83) but NOT fired - the only tick available is the discounted NoTrade cv0 collapse, 12wk 227.60 is alive, and there is a single NO TRADE print rather than two. Trail KEPT 198.93 (chandelier 198.46 lower).
BACBank of America Corp61.95HOLD61.9560.2962.58 (+1.0%)64.05 (+3.4%)73.14 (+18.1%)Holding Bank of America - the book's second-largest position at and up 3% since the 28 July add - with the stop at. Conviction is fading to 54 over three sessions) so no second tranche, but the 12-week view remains 18% higher and there is no exit case. Deliberately NOT adopting the model's 61.43 stop: at 0.50 ATR below spot it would force liquidation of a position on ordinary noise. 60.29 = 1.58 ATR.
KOCoca-Cola Co87.59HOLD87.5983.64n/an/a98.01 (+11.9%)Holding Coca-Cola, up 4.1%, with the stop at. The signal has gone quiet but the 12-week view is 11.9% higher and the position is nowhere near its objective, so there is no case to act. Not armed (T12prog 89.37, just under the 90 threshold). Trail KEPT 83.64 (chandelier 83.04 lower).
DVADaVita Inc240.09HOLD240.09233.38243.17 (+1.3%)250.37 (+4.3%)315.36 (+31.4%)Holding DaVita, which carries the best forward view in the entire book - a 12-week estimate 31.4% above the current price - with the stop at. The valuation screen is stretched enough to block any fresh buying, but a rich reading never originates a sell on a trending name, so we simply hold. Val_adj -10 takes adjusted conviction to 51, below the 65 floor for an add. G3 forward-view gate blocks any trim. Trail KEPT 233.38 (model's 236.09 is 0.78 ATR - too tight to adopt as a trail).
DALDelta Air Lines Inc87.44HOLD87.4482.5789.04 (+1.8%)92.77 (+6.1%)97.30 (+11.3%)Holding Delta with the stop at. The position is 5.7% underwater but the signal is constructive and the 12-week view is 11.3% higher - the 27 July decision to refuse a sell here continues to look right. Trail KEPT 82.57 (chandelier 82.11 lower).
CBChubb Ltd350.68HOLD350.68341.96355.81 (+1.5%)367.76 (+4.9%)379.13 (+8.1%)Holding Chubb with the stop at. The PROFIT_ARMED flag on this row is spurious - the position is 0.8% underwater, so there is no profit to take. Gain_ATR -0.31; the arm comes from the T12-progress leg only. Trail KEPT 341.96 (chandelier 333.60 lower).
MCOMoody's Corp478.38HOLD478.38458.00485.95 (+1.6%)503.61 (+5.3%)496.70 (+3.8%)Holding Moody's with the stop at. Another spurious profit-arm - the position is 2.1% underwater (Gain_ATR -0.81), so nothing to bank. Trail KEPT 458.00 (chandelier 453.15 lower).
KHCKraft Heinz Co25.85HOLD25.8525.70n/an/a30.16 (+16.7%)Holding Kraft Heinz, up 1.9%, with the stop at. This is the cheapest name in the book on the valuation screen (margin of safety +0.32) with a 12-week view 16.7% higher, but the quality screen fails and the signal is quiet, so there is no trigger to add. Quality_Pass False (F-Score 5) halves val_adj to +2 and blocks any new entry; ADDs to a held name are not blocked, but there is no buy label to act on.
MMacy's Inc24.82HOLD24.8223.77n/an/a29.11 (+17.3%)Holding Macy's, the book's best percentage gainer at +6.8%, with the stop at. The 12-week view is 17.3% higher and the position is not near its objective. Trail KEPT 23.77 (chandelier 23.06 lower).
ALLYAlly Financial Inc43.33HOLD43.3341.00n/an/a40.15 (-7.3%)Holding Ally Financial with the stop at. It screens marginally undervalued but the signal has been silent for four straight sessions, the quality screen fails, and the position is 4.3% underwater - so there is neither a buy trigger nor a sell case. The PROFIT_ARMED flag is spurious (Gain_ATR -1.63). 12wk 40.15 is 7.3% below spot - a watch item if the signal ever wakes up.
SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc29.62HOLD29.6228.9830.39 (+2.6%)32.18 (+8.6%)34.07 (+15.0%)Holding Sirius XM and re-setting the stop to. The shares have given back 9% from the 29 July spike and closed a fraction below the old stop, but a 0.07% touch is a graze, not a break - and the 12-week view is still 15% higher. The old level sat two cents under the market and was untradeable as a stop, so it is re-based rather than triggered. Stop RE-BASED 29..98 (model stop; chandelier 27.06 lower) under the closed-through-trail rule. Position -2.9%.
LLYVALiberty Live Group Ser A94.72HOLD94.7287.64n/an/a93.62 (-1.2%)Holding Liberty Live's A shares through a 7% one-day drop and re-setting the stop to. The stop that was breached had only been raised the previous session off a single strong reading, and the forward view is flat rather than negative - this looks like a whipsaw in a thinly-followed tracking stock, not a trend break, so we do not sell into it. L2 requires a decisive close below stop AND a negative 12wk; the 12wk is -1.16%, flat not negative. Label is NoTrade (a -5 cell, hit.25) and valuation is NA (no fusion input). Stop RE-BASED 97..64 (2.0xATR chandelier; no model stop on a NoTrade row) under the closed-through-trail rule. Position -9.0%,.
LLYVKLiberty Live Group Ser C98.60HOLD98.6091.34n/an/a98.30 (-0.3%)Holding Liberty Live's C shares on the same reasoning as the A line - a 6.7% single-session drop through a stop raised only the day before, with a flat rather than negative forward view. Re-setting the stop to and requiring a decisive close below it before acting. COUNTERFACTUAL CORRECTION: the 07-30 entry called this position's withdrawn 30% trim at 102.26 a clean win for non-execution at 105.65; one session later at 98.60 the withdrawal is -3.6% WORSE, not better. Recorded so the grader prices it honestly. 12wk -0.30% (flat), NoTrade -5 cell, NA valuation. Stop RE-BASED 100..34 (2.0xATR chandelier). Position -7.8%,.

Outcome & track record

How accurate the calls have been.

53 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.

Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.

How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.

  • FailedBreakout_Down_20D (sell): 22 past trades, 53% hit the 1-week target → +1 conviction nudge.
  • NoTrade (sell): 10 past trades, 25% hit the 1-week target → -5 conviction nudge.
  • PullbackBuy_VWAP (buy): 6 past trades, 50% hit the 1-week target → no conviction nudge.
  • RallySell_BearTrend (sell): 6 past trades, 17% hit the 1-week target → -7 conviction nudge.

Portfolio & signals

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

TickerNameCloseSignal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept. ActionConv1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.
VRSNHVeriSign Inc290.02FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD75290.63 (+0.2%)314.31 (+8.4%)305.12 (+5.2%)
GOOGLHAlphabet Inc Cl A356.13FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE73n/an/a301.01 (-15.5%)
GOOGHAlphabet Inc Cl C356.65FailedBreakout_Down_20DSTRONG SELL - REDUCE73n/an/a305.81 (-14.3%)
OXYHOccidental Petroleum Corp57.07FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD6857.15 (+0.1%)60.37 (+5.8%)57.38 (+0.5%)
DALHDelta Air Lines Inc87.44FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD6787.57 (+0.1%)92.77 (+6.1%)97.30 (+11.3%)
LENHLennar Corp Cl A82.35RallySell_BearTrendSTRONG SELL - REDUCE63n/an/a67.01 (-18.6%)
LEN-BHLennar Corp Cl B80.70RallySell_BearTrendSTRONG SELL - REDUCE63n/an/a66.36 (-17.8%)
DVAHDaVita Inc240.09FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD61240.35 (+0.1%)250.37 (+4.3%)315.36 (+31.4%)
STZHConstellation Brands Cl A130.23FailedBreakout_Down_20DAVOID61n/an/a100.11 (-23.1%)
AAPLHApple Inc308.91FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD60309.56 (+0.2%)335.04 (+8.5%)355.44 (+15.1%)
CVXHChevron Corp196.83BreakoutUp_20DHOLD60198.52 (+0.9%)227.42 (+15.5%)211.07 (+7.2%)
SIRIHSirius XM Holdings Inc29.62FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD6029.68 (+0.2%)32.18 (+8.6%)34.07 (+15.0%)
AXPHAmerican Express Co336.25FailedBreakout_Down_20DAVOID56n/an/a331.95 (-1.3%)
NVRHNVR Inc6147.05FailedBreakout_Down_20DAVOID56n/an/a5532.23 (-10.0%)
BACHBank of America Corp61.95FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD5462.00 (+0.1%)64.05 (+3.4%)73.14 (+18.1%)
CBHChubb Ltd350.68FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD54351.11 (+0.1%)367.76 (+4.9%)379.13 (+8.1%)
MCOHMoody's Corp478.38FailedBreakdown_Up_20DHOLD52479.01 (+0.1%)503.61 (+5.3%)496.70 (+3.8%)
KRHKroger Co57.74FailedBreakout_Down_20DAVOID45n/an/a46.31 (-19.8%)
KOHCoca-Cola Co87.59NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a98.01 (+11.9%)
KHCHKraft Heinz Co25.85NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a30.16 (+16.7%)
COFHCapital One Financial Corp209.01NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a227.60 (+8.9%)
NYTHNew York Times Co Cl A74.89NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a71.34 (-4.7%)
ALLYHAlly Financial Inc43.33NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a40.15 (-7.3%)
LLYVKHLiberty Live Group Ser C98.60NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a98.30 (-0.3%)
NUEHNucor Corp257.29NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a299.86 (+16.5%)
LLYVAHLiberty Live Group Ser A94.72NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a93.62 (-1.2%)
MHMacy's Inc24.82NoTradeNO TRADE0n/an/a29.11 (+17.3%)
LPXLouisiana-Pacific Corp72.43FailedBreakout_Down_20DAVOID61n/an/a64.89 (-10.4%)
JEFJefferies Financial Group54.60FailedBreakdown_Up_20DWATCH4954.73 (+0.2%)59.73 (+9.4%)55.89 (+2.4%)

Archive

Earlier end-of-day records.

This website is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and assess your own risk tolerance before making investment decisions.