Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 208.74 | SELL 30% | 208.74 | 199.57 | 211.49 (+1.3%) | 217.91 (+4.4%) | 198.60 (-4.9%) | COF is the book's largest risk (17% of NAV). Its model 12-week view (198.60) now sits below the 208.74 close, a dead forward view on a position that is only +2.3% from the 204.12 breakout fill, so 30% comes off. The close reclaimed EMA200 (205.52) and the engine prints HOLD 65, which weakens the 10-27/10-28 degradation case for 50%; the cut is downgraded to the 30% profit-take tier. Armed via T12_Progress 105% (artifact: 12wk < close) + tick c. Supersedes the unexecuted 10-28 SELL 50%. Balance on the 199.57 model stop. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 283.82 | SELL ALL | 283.82 | 321.28⚠ | 297.86 (+4.9%) | 330.62 (+16.5%) | 197.41 (-30.4%) | Alphabet fell ~12% on its Q3 miss (EPS 2.12 vs 3.02, Search light, FCF negative on capex) and closed at 283.82, 11.7% under the 321.28 exit line, with the 12-week view at 197.41 (-30%). L2 exit; the oversold HOLD 90 (RSI 22) bounce is the counter-case, noted. Re-issue of the unexecuted 10-23/10-27/10-28 exits (executor deadlock). · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 282.32 | SELL ALL | 282.32 | 317.66⚠ | 295.83 (+4.8%) | 327.35 (+15.9%) | 196.26 (-30.5%) | Same case as GOOGL: closed 282.32, 11.1% under the 317.66 line after the Q3 miss, 12-week view 196.26 (-30%). L2 exit of the-sh balance; re-issue of the unexecuted exits. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 362.28 | ADD — QUEUED @350.52 | 350.52 | 337.83 | 354.94 (+1.3%) | 365.24 (+4.2%) | 382.76 (+9.2%) | Chubb flipped from NO TRADE to STRONG BUY - ADD 85 on a VWAP pullback setup (Buy_Rank 1), and valuation is close to fair (MoS -0.16); after the weak PullbackBuy|buy cell (-9) it still clears the floor at 75. The close (362.28) is 1.85 ATR above the model entry, so the add waits as a no-chase GTC limit at 350.52. Fresh 1-print signal: withdraw if conviction < 65 or the family flips (US-8). Quality gate does not apply to adds. On fill the combined stop resets to 337.83 ( risk on the add). · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 63.01 | NO ACTION | 63.01 | 60.72 | n/a | n/a | 69.92 (+11.0%) | Armed (T12_Progress 90%, artifact at +1.2%) + tick b (conviction fires a 30% profit-take, displaced by the three dispose slots (two Alphabet stop exits + COF). 12wk +11%. Stop 60.72. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 193.31 | NO ACTION | 193.31 | 170.47 | n/a | n/a | 181.69 (-6.0%) | AVOID/NoSignal after the Q3 print (adj EPS 3.82 vs 3.78, revenue beat). Armed (artifact, -17.7% on cost) + ticks b + c fires 50%, displaced. Stop 170.47. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 305.95 | NO ACTION | 305.95 | 295.47 | n/a | n/a | 325.80 (+6.5%) | Armed (+19%, 5.7 ATR) + tick b fires 30%, displaced. Trail 295.47. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 24.72 | NO ACTION | 24.72 | 23.19 | n/a | n/a | 26.25 (+6.2%) | Armed + tick a (RSI_DIV) on a HOLD 85 VCP (not a G1-protected breakout) fires 30%, displaced. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 39.64 | NO ACTION | 39.64 | 35.88 | n/a | n/a | 33.63 (-15.2%) | Armed (artifact, -12% on cost) + ticks b + c fires 50% of a-sh stub, displaced. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 348.91 | HOLD | 348.91 | 339.55 | n/a | n/a | 377.44 (+8.2%) | Armed (+13%, 6.7 ATR) + tick a (RSI_DIV) would fire 30% (G2 suppresses the MoS -3.24 tier bump: 12wk 377 >> DCF 237), but FQ4 prints ~11-02 after close (<=5 sessions): catalyst-aware hold, no pre-trim. Trail 339.55. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 92.82 | HOLD | 92.82 | 90.29 | n/a | n/a | 99.14 (+6.8%) | HOLD; armed, no tick. Line 90.29 held (chandelier 89.39 below it). |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 231.46 | HOLD | 231.46 | 223.03 | n/a | n/a | 278.16 (+20.2%) | HOLD 62, -); armed (11.9 ATR), no tick. Trail 223.03. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 275.29 | HOLD | 275.29 | 258.47 | n/a | n/a | 303.25 (+10.2%) | HOLD 78; armed, no tick. Trail raised 254.56 -> 258.47. |
| — | Moody's Corp | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 75 (adj 70) new entry declined: the trail flip-flops (BUY 74 -> NT -> WATCH 62 -> BUY 75), the FailedBreakdown_Up|buy chase sits at the bare US-10 raw-75 minimum, and the 12wk (482.38) is below the entry. Would have been. |
| — | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY - ADD 72 (adj 64 after val -8) is below the floor; extended 1.1 ATR, 12wk below the close. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
278 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.691 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.