Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 204.85 | SELL 30% | 204.85 | 199.57 | 207.87 (+1.5%) | 214.91 (+4.9%) | 195.07 (-4.8%) | COF is the book's largest risk (17% of NAV) and its model-week view (195.07) sits 4.8% below the 204.85 close, a dead forward view on a position only +0.4% from the 204.12 fill, so 30% comes off. The stock gave back its EMA200 reclaim by 0.15 ATR (205.61) on a HOLD 62 print; that is a marginal close, so the 30% tier holds. Armed via T_Progress 105% (artifact:wk < close) + tick c. A decisive close under EMA200 or a NO TRADE print re-arms the 50% case. Replaces the unexecuted-29 card. Balance on the 199.57 stop. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 279.84 | SELL ALL | 280.11 | 321.28⚠ | n/a | n/a | 173.10 (-38.2%) | Alphabet's post-Q3 slide now prints STRONG SELL - REDUCE 87 (BreakdownDown_20D), closing 12.9% under the 321.28 exit line with a-week view of 173.10 (-38%). Citizens downgraded and 13 analysts cut targets after the EPS miss and negative FCF on capex. Full exit over the engine's 88.52%: decisive stop break plus L2, and BH-EOQ-CH does not shelter a negativewk. RSI 21 bounce risk is the counter-case. Re-issue of exits unexecuted since-23 (executor refusal). · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 278.22 | SELL ALL | 278.22 | 317.66⚠ | n/a | n/a | 172.59 (-38.0%) | Same case as GOOGL: STRONG SELL - REDUCE 90 (Sell_Rank 1), 12.4% under the 317.66 exit line, -week view 172.59 (-38%). Full exit under L2 and the decisive stop break. Re-issue of exits unexecuted since-23. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 364.12 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @366.38 lapsed — closed 364.12 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Chubb strengthened to STRONG BUY - ADD 98 (Buy_Rank 1) on a momentum continuation, two prints running, after a Q3 core EPS beat of 7.66 vs 6.53, and valuation is close to fair (MoS -0.16). The buy-stop at 366.38 fills only on strength. Replaces the-@350.52 limit, which the live row no longer prints (provenance; family moved from the -9 PullbackBuy cell). MomentumContinuation_Up|buy is n=4, hit_1w.25: too small to bias, noted. Armed + RSI_DIV on a fresh conv >= 80 momentum row is a trail-raise under G1, not a trim. Quality gate does not apply to adds. Withdraw if conviction < 65. · news |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 94.08 | ADD — QUEUED @91.55 | 91.55 | 87.90 | 92.82 (+1.4%) | 95.79 (+4.6%) | 101.40 (+10.8%) | Coca-Cola climbed HOLD -> STRONG BUY - ADD 85 after a Q3 beat and raised outlook (-27). Rich valuation (MoS -2.23) and the weak PullbackBuy cell cut it to 66, just over the floor, and size to 0.75x. The close is 1.39 ATR above entry, so the add waits as a no-chase limit at 91.55. Armed with no tick, so no trim; trail 90.29. On fill the stop resets to 87.90. Withdraw if conviction < 65 or the family flips (US-8). · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 235.52 | NO ACTION | 235.52 | 225.01 | n/a | n/a | 285.90 (+21.4%) | Armed (+32%, 12.5 ATR) + tick a (RSI_DIV, RSI 73) fires a 30% profit-take; conviction 63 is under the G1 softening bar. Displaced by the three dispose slots. Q3 landed-30 (adj EPS 5.28). Trail raised to 225.01. · news |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 187.50 | NO ACTION | 187.50 | 170.47 | n/a | n/a | 177.47 (-5.3%) | Armed (T artifact at -20%) + tick c fires 30%, displaced. wk 177.47 is below the 187.50 close. Stop 170.47. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 29.01 | NO ACTION | 29.01 | 27.21 | n/a | n/a | 28.37 (-2.2%) | BUY - ADD 72 falls to 64 on val_adj -8, below the floor, with thewk (28.37) under the 28.71 entry. Armed (T artifact at -4.9%) + tick c fires 30%, displaced. The two reads conflict, so no action. Trail raised to 27.21. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 273.87 | NO ACTION | 273.87 | 258.47 | n/a | n/a | 305.02 (+11.4%) | Armed (+24%, 6.1 ATR) + tick b fires 30%, displaced. Trail 258.47. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 24.11 | NO ACTION | 24.11 | 23.19 | n/a | n/a | 25.59 (+6.1%) | Armed + tick b fires 30%, displaced. Stop 23.19. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 38.17 | NO ACTION | 38.17 | 35.88 | n/a | n/a | 31.99 (-16.2%) | Armed (artifact at -15.7%) + tick c fires 30% of a-sh stub, displaced. Stop 35.88. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 100.62 | NO ACTION | 100.62 | 95.42 | n/a | n/a | 99.06 (-1.6%) | Armed (artifact at -3.2%) + tick c fires 30% of a-sh stub, displaced. Trail raised to 95.42. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 344.63 | HOLD | 343.64 | 339.55 | n/a | n/a | 370.42 (+7.8%) | FQ prints Monday 11-02, the session the cards execute. Armed with no tick: RSI_DIV cleared, and is short of the 20-pt collapse. Catalyst-aware hold, no pre-trim. Close 344.63 is 0.83 ATR above the 339.55 trail. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 307.21 | HOLD | 307.21 | 295.47 | n/a | n/a | 327.34 (+6.6%) | Armed, no tick. Trail 295.47. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 66.76 | HOLD | 66.76 | 64.12 | n/a | n/a | 78.20 (+17.1%) | Armed, no tick. Trail 64.12. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 64.00 | HOLD | 64.00 | 60.72 | n/a | n/a | 71.49 (+11.7%) | No longer armed (T 89.5%, +2.8%), so the-29 optional trim case is gone. Stop 60.72. |
| — | Constellation Brands Cl A | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY 85 (adj 72) is blocked: quality gate, F-Score/FCF screen failed on a new entry. |
| — | Kraft Heinz Co | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 69 is blocked by the quality gate, adj 57 is below the floor, and thewk is under entry. |
| — | New York Times Co Cl A | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 62 (adj 46) is below the floor. The prior queue was withdrawn-29. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
281 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.691 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.