Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 204.88 | SELL 50% | 204.88 | 198.26 | 203.47 (-0.7%) | 200.17 (-2.3%) | 190.76 (-6.9%) | The 10-21 breakout never recovered: a third straight NO TRADE, the close still under EMA200 (204.88 vs 205.60) and a 12-week view of 190.76 (-6.9%), so half the position comes off. Re-issue of the unexecuted 10-22/10-27 cuts (executor refused usbh on a CASH drift); balance on the 198.26 rung. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 324.89 | SELL ALL | 324.89 | 321.28 | 318.83 (-1.9%) | 304.70 (-6.2%) | 264.32 (-18.6%) | Alphabet missed Q3 (GAAP EPS 2.12 vs 3.01; ads light) and traded -8 to -10% after hours, which gaps it well through the 321.28 exit line with a -18.6% 12-week view; the news overrides the pre-print HOLD 90 bounce. L2 exit at the open; action price is the 10-28 close reference, expect a fill near. · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 321.89 | SELL ALL | 321.89 | 317.66 | 315.78 (-1.9%) | 301.53 (-6.3%) | 260.80 (-19.0%) | Same case as GOOGL: the Q3 miss sent the C shares ~-9% after hours (-293), through the 317.66 line, with a -19% 12-week view. L2 exit at the open; reprice from the 10-28 close reference. · news |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 69.18 | BUY — QUEUED @66.89 | 66.89 | 65.14 | 67.95 (+1.6%) | 70.41 (+5.3%) | 69.19 (+3.4%) | Second straight STRONG BUY pullback print on a quality-passing, fairly valued name; the close is 1.5 ATR above entry, so the buy waits at the model level rather than chasing. Repriced from the 10-27 queue @66.58 to the live Entry_Price 66.89; withdraw if conviction < 65 or the family flips (US-8). Q3 prints-04, after expiry. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 355.50 | NO ACTION | 355.50 | 351.64 | n/a | n/a | 371.91 (+4.6%) | Armed + tick d (2x NO TRADE) fires a 30% profit-take, but the arming is the T12 artifact on a +0.6% gain; displaced from the three slots by the loss-prevention exits. Trail 351.64. · news |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 271.79 | NO ACTION | 271.79 | 254.56 | n/a | n/a | 292.65 (+7.7%) | Armed (+23%, 4.95 ATR) + tick b (conviction, -23 pts) fires a 30% profit-take; displaced by the loss-prevention slots. Trail 254.56. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 65.02 | NO ACTION | 65.02 | 64.12 | n/a | n/a | 75.69 (+16.4%) | Armed + tick d (3x NO TRADE) fires 30% ( stub); displaced. Trail 64.12. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 91.73 | HOLD | 91.73 | 90.29 | n/a | n/a | 97.81 (+6.6%) | HOLD 61 after 3x NO TRADE; armed but no tick fires (12wk +6.6%). Line 90.29 held; 92.00 trail not yet reclaimed. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 229.20 | HOLD | 229.20 | 223.03 | n/a | n/a | 274.90 (+19.9%) | HOLD 69 after 2x NO TRADE; armed ( ATR) but tick d no longer fires. Trail 223.03 held (chandelier 222.35 below it). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 307.01 | HOLD | 307.01 | 295.47 | n/a | n/a | 327.51 (+6.7%) | HOLD 62; armed, no tick. Trail 295.47. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 343.83 | HOLD | 343.83 | 339.55 | n/a | n/a | 370.45 (+7.7%) | HOLD 56, -19 pts, just under tick b). Armed, no tick; catalyst-aware hold into the Q4 print. Trail 339.55. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 183.93 | HOLD | 183.93 | 170.47 | n/a | n/a | 165.27 (-10.1%) | HOLD 62; catalyst-aware hold through the Q3 print on 10-29. Stop 170.47. |
| — | Constellation Brands Cl A | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY 88 (adj 75) new entry blocked by the quality gate (F-Score/FCF screen failed). |
| — | Louisiana-Pacific Corp | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY 83 fresh (WATCH 57 prior); adj 64 below the floor and the quality gate fails. |
| — | Kraft Heinz Co | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 65 new entry blocked by the quality gate; adj 53; 12wk below the close. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
275 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.711 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.