Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 203.44 | SELL 50% | 203.44 | 198.26 | 201.84 (-0.8%) | 198.10 (-2.6%) | 187.43 (-7.9%) | The COF breakout bought at 204.12 never recovered: two straight NO TRADE prints, a close of 203.44 below EMA200 (205.53) and a negative 12-week view (187.43, -7.9%). The 10-22 SELL 50% was never executed (the auto-executor is blocked), so the full 17%-of-NAV position is still at risk. Re-issue the half cut; this card supersedes the unexecuted 10-22 card. Balance holds the 198.26 rung; a close below it exits the rest. News neutral (Q3 beat already priced; Citi PT 285 on 10-21). NoTrade|sell cell -1. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 320.58 | SELL ALL | 320.58 | 321.28⚠ | 314.55 (-1.9%) | 300.48 (-6.3%) | 260.29 (-18.8%) | Third straight close (320.58) below the 321.28 exit line the book pre-committed to on 10-22, with the 12-week view at 260.29 (-18.8%) and price below EMA200 (334.91). That meets the L2 basis. The 10-23 SELL 100% never executed (executor blocked), so this card re-issues and supersedes it, filling at the 10-28 open ahead of tonight's Q3 print. Counter-case noted: the engine now prints OversoldBounce HOLD 69 (conviction ->69) and the breach is only 0.09 ATR; the L2|sell cell has improved to -2 (n=10). BH-EOQ-CH does not shelter it (12W negative). · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 316.83 | SELL ALL | 316.83 | 317.66⚠ | 310.73 (-1.9%) | 296.51 (-6.4%) | 255.88 (-19.2%) | Same case as GOOGL: a third close (316.83) under the 317.66 exit line, 12-week view 255.88 (-19.2%), below EMA200. Re-issues the unexecuted 10-23 SELL 100% and supersedes it; exit the-sh balance at the 10-28 open, before the Q3 print. · news |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 69.81 | BUY — QUEUED @66.58 | 66.58 | 64.70 | 67.71 (+1.7%) | 70.34 (+5.6%) | 70.06 (+5.2%) | NYT flipped to STRONG BUY 81 on a PullbackBuy_VWAP setup (Buy_Rank 3) and passes the quality screen; after the valuation haircut (FAIR_VALUE, MoS -1.49, -7) and the weak PullbackBuy|buy cell (-9) it clears the 65 floor exactly. The close (69.81) is 2 ATR above the model entry, so this is a no-chase GTC limit at the printed 66.58, sized 0.75x for valuation. News neutral: Morgan Stanley EW, PT cut mid-Oct; Q3 prints 11-04 (after expiry). Fresh 1-print flip: withdraw at the open if the family flips (US-8) or conviction < 65; expires 10-30. Stop 64.70 -> risk (0.36% NAV). · news |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 91.18 | NO ACTION | 91.18 | 90.29 | n/a | n/a | 97.97 (+7.4%) | Optional 30% profit-take not taken. KO is armed (+8.4%, 3.9 ATR) and tick d fired (3rd straight NO TRADE); it closed 0.46 ATR under the 92.00 trail after a sell-the-news Q3. But the quarter was a beat-and-raise (organic +7%, EPS guide >=11%, FCF >=) and the 12-week view is +7.4%, so news overrides and the break is not an L2 exit. Displaced by the loss-prevention slots. New decisive line 90.29 (close - 0.5 ATR). · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 228.23 | NO ACTION | 228.23 | 223.03 | n/a | n/a | 274.65 (+20.3%) | Tick d (2 consecutive NO TRADE) on a genuinely armed name (+27.9%, 10.1 ATR). Displaced by the loss-prevention slots; CVX was cut 30% on 10-21 and the 12wk is +20%. Trail 223.03. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 65.87 | NO ACTION | 65.87 | 64.12 | n/a | n/a | 77.52 (+17.7%) | Tick d (2 consecutive NO TRADE) on the armed name (+13%, 4.0 ATR); a stub, displaced. Trail 64.12. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 270.79 | HOLD | 266.20 | 254.56 | n/a | 332.55 (+24.9%) | 285.07 (+7.1%) | STRONG BUY - ADD 86 (adj 80) but not queued: it is a post-earnings gap (open 265 vs 257.35 after the Q3 beat, EPS), which L6 forbids chasing, and the trail is unstable (NT/HOLD/NT/SBA). The add would be anyway. Armed, no tick: chandelier trail raised to 254.56. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 347.10 | HOLD | 347.10 | 339.55 | n/a | 359.20 (+3.5%) | 376.45 (+8.5%) | Armed (6.4 ATR), no fire tick: conviction recovered NT -> 75, 12wk +8.5%. Trail held at 339.55. Q4 print 11-02. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 181.69 | HOLD | 181.69 | 170.47 | n/a | n/a | 161.87 (-10.9%) | HOLD 49. Catalyst-aware hold through the Q3 print on 10-29; PROFIT_ARMED on a -22.7% loser is the sign-blind artifact. Stop 170.47. |
| — | Constellation Brands Cl A | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY 83 new entry blocked by the quality gate (F-Score/FCF screen failed); also 1.65 ATR extended. |
| — | Kraft Heinz Co | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 65 new entry blocked by the quality gate; adj 53; 12wk below the close. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
272 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.711 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.