Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 145.51 | BUY | 145.51 | 142.21 | 148.65 (+2.2%) | 155.97 (+7.2%) | 175.19 (+20.4%) | Fresh STRONG BUY 90 at Buy_Rank 1 with the entry at the close (not extended) and a quality-passing balance sheet; valuation is priced for growth (MoS -1.05), so the size is cut to 0.75x, and the 12-week view of exceeds the DCF anchor. FailedBreakdown_Up passes US-10 at raw >= 75. Model-faithful size off NAV = 12.8% of NAV on a 0.63-ATR stop (142.21). L8: market at the 11-10 open; withdraw if it gaps >1.5% above 145.51 or the family flips (US-8/US-9). · news |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 198.58 | SELL ALL | 198.58 | 199.57⚠ | n/a | n/a | 185.50 (-6.6%) | Closed under its stop with the 12-week view down to (-6.6%) and the signal collapsed from AVOID 45 to NO TRADE, so the full position exits as pre-committed at the 11-06 EOD. L2/L3 + armed ticks b+c; BH-EOQ-CH does not apply (12wk negative)., 16.9% of NAV. · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 55.76 | SELL ALL | 55.76 | 56.00⚠ | n/a | n/a | 49.43 (-11.4%) | Second close under the line after the 11-04 break, a fourth straight NO TRADE, and a 12-week view of (-11.4%); the 11-06 trigger for the balance is met, superseding the unfilled 50% card. The Q3 print landed after the anchor close: if the open gaps >1.5% up (above) sell only 50% and re-assess at EOD; otherwise sell 100%.. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 288.15 | SELL ALL | 288.15 | 321.28⚠ | n/a | n/a | 166.49 (-42.2%) | STRONG SELL - REDUCE 75 with the close 10.3% under the stop and a negative 12-week view; position -19.9% on cost. L2 full exit, re-issued (executor refused since 10-23).. · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 286.01 | NO ACTION | 286.01 | 317.66⚠ | n/a | n/a | 167.27 (-41.5%) | Same L2 case as GOOGL (SSR 75, 10% under the stop); displaced only by the 3-slot cap.. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 350.69 | NO ACTION | 350.69 | 328.95 | n/a | 372.43 (+6.2%) | 369.17 (+5.3%) | Armed (+13.6%, T12 95%) with RSI_DIV (tick a); not a breakout/momentum family so G1 does not soften it. G2 suppresses the valuation bump (12wk 369 >> DCF 217). Displaced by the slot cap; trail raised to 328.95.. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 363.45 | NO ACTION | 363.45 | 358.82 | n/a | n/a | 395.75 (+8.9%) | Three NO TRADE prints on the armed position (tick d); 30%. Displaced; trail 358.82. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 96.03 | NO ACTION | 96.03 | 92.88 | n/a | 100.08 (+4.2%) | 107.26 (+11.7%) | Armed (+14.1%) with RSI_DIV (tick a); 30%. G2 suppresses any bump. Displaced; trail 92.88; ex-div 12-01. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 210.78 | NO ACTION | 210.78 | 213.11⚠ | n/a | n/a | 216.25 (+2.6%) | Conviction collapsed on the armed position (tick b); third close under the 213.11 line but 0.40 ATR and a positive 12wk, so not L2. 30%. A decisive close below ~204.9 makes the exit mandatory. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 249.24 | NO ACTION | 249.24 | 258.47⚠ | n/a | n/a | 241.66 (-3.0%) | Close 0.79 ATR under the stop with a negative 12wk (L2), displaced by the slot cap. |
| — | Louisiana-Pacific Corp | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 68 a session after two NO TRADE prints; the quality gate blocks the new entry (Quality_Pass False) and the adjusted 58 is below the floor. |
| — | Delta Air Lines Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 63 on a 52-week breakout, already 0.45 ATR past entry; adjusted 56 is below the 65 floor. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
305 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.673 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.