Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 343.78 | SELL 50% | 343.78 | 331.95 | 340.98 (-0.8%) | 334.45 (-2.7%) | 315.80 (-8.1%) | Chubb printed a second straight STRONG SELL - REDUCE (67) with an -8% 12-week view; it is the book's largest dollar bleed, but fair value is only marginally cheap, so trim half rather than exit. Engine portion 88.5% stepped down one tier for UNDERVALUED; of at the next open (half already sold at 335.27 on 10-08); conviction eased on a +2.8% bounce; stop on the rest raised to the row stop 331.95; Q3 prints 10-20. · news |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 26.33 | SELL 88.52% | 26.33 | 25.20 | 25.69 (-2.4%) | 24.19 (-8.1%) | 19.92 (-24.3%) | Sirius XM strengthened to the book's top-ranked STRONG SELL - REDUCE below its 200-day average with a -24% 12-week view and the position 14% under cost; positive guidance news does not override the trend, so take the engine's full reduce. Stable 2-print SSR, Sell_Rank #1, model Portion 88.52% (FAIR_VALUE, no tier change); of at the next open; 359-sh stub keeps the 25.20 rung; Q3 prints 10-29. · news |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 37.83 | SELL 50% | 37.83 | 37.52 | 36.64 (-3.1%) | 33.88 (-10.4%) | 25.97 (-31.4%) | Ally escalated from HOLD/AVOID to STRONG SELL - REDUCE (75) with a -31% 12-week view while 16% under cost; it screens cheap, so halve it rather than exit. Engine 88.5% stepped down one tier for UNDERVALUED; of at the next open; RSI 31.6 (oversold); rest keep the 37.52 rung; Q3 prints 10-20 (BH-EOQ-CH n/a: 12wk negative). · news |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 87.77 | NO ACTION | 87.77 | 84.51 | n/a | n/a | 83.61 (-4.7%) | Coca-Cola armed (+4.3%) with only tick c (12wk 83.61 < 1.02x close); 30% trim displaced by loss-prevention ranking and the static-tick whittling concern (would be the 4th cut since 10-02). |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 246.14 | NO ACTION | 246.14 | 237.62 | n/a | n/a | 224.01 (-9.0%) | Nucor armed (+11.5%) with ticks c+d (2x NO TRADE, 12wk below close); 50% trim displaced by the cap. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 297.79 | NO ACTION | 297.79 | 284.48 | n/a | n/a | 300.46 (+0.9%) | VeriSign HOLD 92 armed (+16%) with tick c (12wk 300.46 < 1.02x close); 30% trim displaced; conviction rising. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 61.41 | NO ACTION | 61.41 | 58.20 | n/a | n/a | 60.48 (-1.5%) | Kroger HOLD 85 armed with tick c only; 30% trim immaterial, displaced. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 77.06 | NO ACTION | 77.06 | 81.78⚠ | n/a | n/a | 61.17 (-20.6%) | Lennar B SSR 76 (Sell_Rank #2) 5.8% below its stop with a -21% 12-week view; L2 full exit displaced by the cap for a 3rd EOD (immaterial). |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 340.42 | HOLD | 340.42 | 328.80 | n/a | n/a | 364.79 (+7.2%) | Apple HOLD 75, profit-armed (+10.3%) with no tick (12wk +7.2%); trail raised to 328.80. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 211.55 | HOLD | 211.55 | 201.89 | n/a | n/a | 220.76 (+4.4%) | Chevron AVOID 45 -> HOLD 68, armed (+18.5%) with a live 12wk view; trail raised to 201.89. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 348.29 | HOLD | 348.29 | 334.66 | n/a | n/a | 331.67 (-4.8%) | Alphabet A HOLD 59, UNDERVALUED, 3% under cost (PROFIT_ARMED is sign-blind here); rung 334.66 kept. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 344.86 | HOLD | 344.86 | 331.88 | n/a | n/a | 327.03 (-5.2%) | Alphabet C first NO TRADE (consensus conflict); UNDERVALUED; rung 331.88 kept. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 177.02 | HOLD | 177.02 | 170.12 | n/a | n/a | 137.94 (-22.1%) | DaVita back to NO TRADE after two 50% cuts (last filled 10-@176.58); rung 170.12; 12wk -22% so a close below it is an L2 exit. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 95.65 | HOLD | 95.65 | 93.73 | n/a | n/a | 85.79 (-10.3%) | Liberty Live A SSR did not repeat (NO TRADE); rung 93.73, a close below it with the -10% 12wk is an L2 exit. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 98.43 | HOLD | 98.43 | 94.35 | n/a | n/a | 87.25 (-11.4%) | Liberty Live C SSR did not repeat (NO TRADE); rung 94.35. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.79 | HOLD | 22.79 | 22.49 | n/a | n/a | 21.21 (-6.9%) | Macy's HOLD 68 -> NO TRADE, 0.30 above its 22.49 stop; a decisive break with the negative 12wk is an L2 exit. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
233 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.735 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.