Recommendations
2 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 208.71 | SELL 30% | 208.71 | 199.57 | n/a | n/a | 204.71 (-1.9%) | Capital One's forward view has gone flat: the model's 12-week projection sits below today's close, and the row has dropped to NO TRADE after an AVOID print, so part of the winner is banked. Valuation is neutral. Armed (T12 101.95, sign-blind artifact; Gain_ATR 0.87) + tick c only (conv, no tick b today; AVOID -> NO TRADE is not 2x NO TRADE) = 30% tier, re-derived from the live row; this DE-ESCALATES the unexecuted 11-02 50% card, which it replaces. Balance on the 199.57 stop. Executor still refusing usbh on a CASH drift. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 280.03 | SELL ALL | 280.03 | 321.28⚠ | n/a | n/a | 159.62 (-43.0%) | Alphabet broke to a 52-week low after Q3 and has closed 12.8% under the book's stop line for four sessions, with a sharply negative 12-week model view; the exit is a risk cut. SELL - REDUCE 56 BreakdownDown_52W, L2 (stop-break + negative 12wk). 100% over the engine's 49.08% (decisive break). BH-EOQ-CH does not shelter (negative 12wk). Unfilled since 10-23 (executor refusal). · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 278.27 | SELL ALL | 278.27 | 317.66⚠ | n/a | n/a | 158.61 (-43.0%) | Same case as the Class A line: a 52-week breakdown sitting 12.4% under the stop with a negative 12-week view. SELL - REDUCE 56, L2. Unfilled since 10-23. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 313.88 | ADD — QUEUED @312.95 | 312.95 | 295.56 | 329.17 (+5.2%) | 367.02 (+17.3%) | 339.20 (+8.4%) | VeriSign broke out to a fresh 52-week high on rising conviction (HOLD -> STRONG BUY - ADD 90, Buy_Rank 1), and analysts have lifted targets since the 10-22 print; the add is cut to 0.75x because the price is well above our intrinsic anchor. Close 313.88 is 0.11 ATR over the trigger (not extended, RSI 65). Buy-stop already traded: fills at the open unless it gaps >~1.5% (US-9). Armed (+22%, 6.6 ATR), no tick. BreakoutUp_52W|buy report-only (n=2). · news |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 30.80 | ADD — QUEUED @29.75 | 29.75 | 28.01 | 31.37 (+5.4%) | 35.14 (+18.1%) | 32.43 (+9.0%) | Sirius XM broke out above its 20-day range (STRONG BUY - ADD 86), but it closed 1.2 ATR above the entry with RSI 78, so the add waits for a pullback to the printed entry instead of chasing. GTC limit at Entry_Price; size 0.75x (MoS -1.66). Quality gate failed but does not block an ADD. Trail raised 27.73 -> 28.01. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 94.80 | NO ACTION | 94.80 | 91.89 | n/a | n/a | 104.31 (+10.0%) | Fired profit-take (armed + b:, displaced by COF/GOOGL/GOOG on the 3-slot cap. Trail 91.89 stands. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 366.54 | NO ACTION | 366.54 | 356.88 | n/a | n/a | 398.32 (+8.7%) | Fired profit-take (armed + b: HOLD 100 -> NO TRADE 0); displaced (loss-prevention exits rank first, then COF on banked dollars). 12wk 398.32 still +8.7%. Trail 356.88. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 331.90 | HOLD | 331.90 | 325.33 | n/a | n/a | 341.65 (+2.9%) | Second close under the 339.55 line (now -2.25%, 0.85 ATR) after FQ4: beat, but the 45-46% GM guide (memory costs), China miss and Services guide weighed. No origination class: 12wk +2.9% (L2 not met), armed with no tick (conv = -9). Decision line set at the 11-03 post-print low 325.33; a close under it = exit card. Peak stop 339.55 retained (gap -4.2%). · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 331.90 | NO ACTION | 331.90 | 325.33 | n/a | n/a | 341.65 (+2.9%) | Conditional de-risk on the post-print stop break; not signal-mandated, ledgered so the counterfactual grader prices holding. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 60.43 | HOLD | 62.20 | 58.85 | n/a | n/a | 63.89 (+2.7%) | Close 60.43 is 0.48% (0.17 ATR) under the 60.72 line, but conviction recovered and the 12wk is +5.7%; Q3 is 11-09 (4 sessions). BH-EOQ-CH + catalyst-aware hold: stop moved to the model's 58.85 through the print (peak 60.72, gap -3.1%, ADR-0020 not near). · news |
| — | Chevron Corp | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY - ADD 73 (adj 59: val -5, PullbackBuy|buy -9) below the 65 floor; one print after a NO TRADE. Close 225.27 sits on the 225.01 trail. |
| — | Moody's Corp | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 69 (adj 64) below the floor; FailedBreakdown_Up BUY needs raw >= 75 (US-10). |
| — | Lennar Corp Cl B | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY 74, blocked: quality gate on a new entry (and adj 60 < 65). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
292 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.691 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.