Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 57.33 | SELL 50% | 57.33 | 56.00 | n/a | n/a | 57.48 (+0.3%) | Occidental broke below its stop for a second close on a lower-low run (64.00 -> 60.43 -> 57.33), fell 5% with crude, and the model's 12-week view has gone flat, so half the position is cut ahead of the 11-09 Q3 print. Valuation is neutral. NO TRADE 0 (conv = tick b) + dead 12wk (tick c) on PROFIT_ARMED (sign-blind T12 artifact, -7.9% on cost) = 50% tier; the decisive stop break overrides the catalyst hold (BH-EOQ-CH needs no other tick). Balance on the 56.00 (EMA200) line through the print. Contradicts the 11-03 HOLD. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 288.93 | SELL ALL | 288.93 | 321.28⚠ | n/a | n/a | 168.92 (-41.5%) | Alphabet is still 10% under the book's stop line and below its 200-day average despite a 3% bounce, with a sharply negative 12-week model view; the exit is a risk cut. STRONG SELL - REDUCE 75, L2 (stop-break + negative 12wk), 100% over the engine's 88.52%. Unfilled since 10-23 (executor refusal). · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 287.30 | SELL ALL | 287.30 | 317.66⚠ | n/a | n/a | 169.48 (-41.0%) | Same case as the Class A line: 9.6% under the stop with a negative 12-week view, so the oversold bounce does not change the exit. Engine prints HOLD 69 ReversalUp_Oversold; L2 governs. Unfilled since 10-23. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 349.51 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @351.95 lapsed — closed 349.51 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Apple reclaimed its stop and broke to an all-time high in the post-election tech rally (HOLD 35 -> STRONG BUY - ADD 90); the add only fills if it takes out the trigger, and it is halved because the price is far above our intrinsic anchor. Buy-stop at Entry_Price (close 0.21 ATR under); withdraw on a >1.5% gap over the trigger (US-9). RSI_DIV on PROFIT_ARMED downgraded to a trail-raise by G1. BreakoutUp_52W|buy report-only 0/3 (L1 caution). Trail 325.33 -> 328.58. · news |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 95.80 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @96.72 lapsed — closed 95.80 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Coca-Cola is back on a strong momentum-continuation signal just under its 52-week high after a one-day flicker, following a raised FY26 outlook; the add triggers only on a breakout and is cut to 0.75x because it looks fully valued. Buy-stop at Entry_Price (close 0.48 ATR under). snapshots SB-ADD. Armed, no tick -> trail 91.89 -> 92.88. · news |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 33.40 | ADD — QUEUED @31.23 | 31.23 | 28.01 | 33.48 (+7.2%) | 38.74 (+24.0%) | 38.01 (+21.7%) | Sirius XM jumped 8% and holds a strong buy signal, but at RSI 85 and 1.7 ATR above the entry it is too extended to chase, so the add waits at the printed entry. Repriced from the unfilled 11-@29.75 queue to the live Entry_Price. Quality gate failed but does not block an ADD. Withdraw if conviction < 65. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 206.31 | NO ACTION | 206.31 | 199.57 | n/a | n/a | 201.77 (-2.2%) | Fired profit-take (armed T12 102.3 + dead 12wk 201.77 + 2nd consecutive NO TRADE) = 50%, displaced by the three loss-prevention exits (COF is above its 199.57 stop, +1.1% on cost). Escalates the unfilled 11-03 30%. Intraday low 198.66 tagged the stop; a close under 199.57 = full exit card. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 374.17 | NO ACTION | 374.17 | 358.82 | n/a | n/a | 413.03 (+10.4%) | Fired profit-take (armed + RSI_DIV; conv 70 < 80 so G1 does not shelter), displaced. No add into the fired trim (BUY-ADD 70, adj 65). Trail 356.88 -> 358.82. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 216.96 | NO ACTION | 216.96 | 213.11 | n/a | n/a | 245.52 (+13.2%) | Close 1.33 ATR under the 225.01 line with energy; conv (tick b) on PROFIT_ARMED fires 30%, displaced; 12wk +13.2% so L2 not met. Decision line set to the model stop 213.11 (peak 225.01). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 318.03 | NO ACTION | 318.03 | 298.57 | n/a | n/a | 349.12 (+9.8%) | Armed (+24%, 6.5 ATR) + tick b fires 30% on a new high; displaced. Trail 295.56 -> 298.57. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 206.31 | HOLD | 206.31 | 199.57 | n/a | n/a | 201.77 (-2.2%) | Held on the 199.57 stop pending a DISPOSE slot; fired 50% trim ledgered as the displaced optional line. · news |
| — | Kroger Co | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY - ADD 100 (adj 89), but RSI_DIV on PROFIT_ARMED fires a profit-take tick on the same row (no G1 for PullbackBuy) and the entry is 2.09 ATR below the close; no add into a fired trim. |
| — | Kraft Heinz Co | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY 100, blocked: quality gate (Quality_Pass False) on a new entry. Same for LEN SB 90, LPX SB 87, JEF SB 75, LEN-B BUY 73. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
293 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.691 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.