Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 175.35 | SELL 50% | 175.35 | 168.00 | 173.03 (-1.3%) | 167.62 (-4.4%) | 152.15 (-13.2%) | DaVita fell about 6% on a proposed federal kidney-care plan that targets the concentrated dialysis market. It closed decisively below our 179 stop and under its 200-day average, and the model's 12-week view is about 13% lower, so we cut the position in half. L2 stop-break + negative 12wk basis (first firing); the NoTrade L2 cell is -4. Balance on a new 168.00 rung (peak stop 179 retained). Q3 print 10-29. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 225.71 | SELL 30% | 225.71 | 216.36 | 222.43 (-1.5%) | 214.76 (-4.9%) | 263.34 (+16.7%) | Chevron is up about 26% on cost and has turned overbought: RSI is 71, the model flipped to a reversal-down signal, and momentum is diverging. That earns a first profit-take on 30% while the rest rides with a raised trail. Armed (Gain 10.1 ATR) + tick a (RSI_DIV); G n/a (not a fresh breakout); one tick = profit_take_ 30%; FAIR_VALUE, no tier change. Balance, trail 216.36. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 96.69 | SELL 88.52% | 96.69 | 93.73 | 95.84 (-0.9%) | 93.85 (-2.9%) | 88.18 (-8.8%) | Liberty Live Series A now prints the same failed-breakout strong-sell as its Series C sibling, with a 12-week view about 9% lower and the position 7% under cost, so we take the model's 88.5% reduction. Late-flipped REDUCE (NT, AVOID 58, NT, SSR 65); FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell +2; no valuation read. Balance on 93.73. LLYV prints 11-05. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 357.75 | NO ACTION | 361.35 | 348.66 | 372.77 (+3.2%) | 399.43 (+10.5%) | 371.95 (+2.9%) | Chubb printed BUY - ADD 73 on the close before its Q3 beat (core EPS 7.66 vs ~6.4 consensus) hit after the bell, and the 361.35 buy-stop would likely fill on the earnings gap. L6 says don't chase it, so the add of is demoted to a WATCH. Re-arm on a post-gap pullback that reprints BUY - ADD at a live Entry_Price; trail raised to scan 348.66. · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 62.92 | NO ACTION | 62.92 | 60.72 | n/a | n/a | 68.94 (+9.6%) | Occidental's conviction fell on one 'consensus conflict' NO TRADE print, which trips the profit-take rule mechanically. But the position is only up 1.1% (0.4 ATR, armed by T12 progress alone), and Roth upgraded it to Buy on 10-19 with estimates up about 21% in 30 days, so the 30% trim is overridden by news. Hold on 60.72; a second NT (tick d) re-fires it. · news |
| KR | Kroger Co | 62.98 | NO ACTION | 62.98 | 60.93 | n/a | n/a | 68.32 (+8.5%) | Kroger is armed and has printed two straight NO TRADEs (tick d), a 30% profit-take of about; displaced by the 3-card cap. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 23.41 | NO ACTION | 23.41 | 22.49 | n/a | n/a | 23.66 (+1.1%) | Macy's is armed by T12 progress at only +0.7%, with a dead 12-week view (tick c) and two NO TRADEs (tick d), which would be a 50% trim of about; displaced by the cap. It would be a third straight cut. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 37.97 | NO ACTION | 37.97 | 35.88 | n/a | n/a | 27.84 (-26.7%) | Ally prints a seventh STRONG SELL - REDUCE (78) on a-share stub; displaced by the cap, UNDERVALUED argues the 88.5% down to 50%. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 100.49 | NO ACTION | 100.49 | 94.35 | n/a | n/a | 91.74 (-8.7%) | Liberty Live C SSR 65 on the-share stub; 88.5% rounds to the full share; displaced by the cap. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 50.64 | NO ACTION | 50.64 | 47.04 | n/a | 53.83 (+6.3%) | 30.55 (-39.7%) | Bank of America printed a new BUY 69 oversold bounce (RSI 24). A new entry is blocked by the quality gate (Quality_Pass False), and the 12wk 30.55 (-40%) contradicts the bullish label. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 339.50 | HOLD | 339.50 | 334.97 | n/a | n/a | 364.96 (+7.5%) | Apple recovered to HOLD 63 after the 10-19 NO TRADE; armed with no fresh tick, so trail 334.97. Q3 11-02. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 93.49 | HOLD | 93.49 | 90.88 | n/a | n/a | 101.71 (+8.8%) | Coca-Cola is armed and its conviction fell (tick b), but its 10-27 print falls inside 5 sessions, so the catalyst-aware hold applies: trail 90.88. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 261.50 | HOLD | 261.50 | 245.84 | n/a | n/a | 266.04 (+1.7%) | Nucor is armed + tick c (12wk +1.7%), but we hold through the 10-26 print (catalyst-aware hold); trail raised to 245.84. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 306.53 | HOLD | 306.53 | 295.47 | n/a | n/a | 329.13 (+7.4%) | VeriSign HOLD 69, armed with no tick; hold through the 10-22 print on the 295.47 trail. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 340.27 | HOLD | 340.27 | 338.83 | n/a | n/a | 318.51 (-6.4%) | Alphabet A is 0.4% above its 338.83 stop; the 12wk is negative, so a close below 336.41 is an L2 exit. Meta prints 10-21 AMC, GOOGL 10-28. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 336.40 | HOLD | 336.40 | 335.00 | n/a | n/a | 312.44 (-7.1%) | Alphabet C is 0.4% above its 335 stop; the 12wk is negative, so a close below 332.64 is an L2 exit. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 27.16 | HOLD | 27.16 | 25.20 | n/a | n/a | 23.16 (-14.7%) | Sirius XM NO TRADE at a loss, above its 25.20 rung; hold. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
259 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.711 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.