US Trades Decided by: AI 🤖

AI · US Tech — Trades

Every virtual fill this book has made, with the model's reasoning — the fused signal, valuation and news case — behind each. Prices are model fills; quantities are never shown.

All books

Fill history

7 recorded fills.

Date	Ticker	Name	Side	Fill Px	Signal	Conv	Valuation	Why
2026-07-23	TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing	SELL	414.90	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	64	GROWTH PRICED IN	rationale TSMC's exit case has half-repaired, so we take profits on the de-risk rather than complete it: after a +5.5% session the shares closed at 424.61, back above the 50-day average and only 0.5% under our stop, which is no longer a decisive break - but the model's 12-week view (407.07) is still 4.1% BELOW the price and the engine still reads the name bearishly (AVOID, conviction 64 and rising) on a position we are underwater on. Q2 was a blowout (EPS +74.5%, FY26 revenue growth guided above 40%) yet the rally is a sector-wide AI bid on Taiwan's +83.6% US export orders, not a TSMC re-rating, and the capex raise to -64B is a real margin overhang. So: halve the position into strength at a price 5.5% better than the level the previous verdict was chasing, and keep the other half working with a raised stop. Operational: L2 re-tested and found half-satisfied (stop-break leg healed, negative-12wk leg survives) -> exit SCALED from a full reduce-to-30-residual down to a 50% trim; L3/UT-11 escalation of a FOURTH consecutive 30-share partial fill (txn ustech-20260722-0001) - act at the right size, do not drip a fifth session; G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify (DCF vs price is ~10x broken) so the MoS<=-3 tier bump is deliberately NOT applied; UT-9 - PROFIT_ARMED prints at T12_Progress 104.31 on a -3.06% underwater position (Gain_ATR -0.74) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert, this is a loss-trim not a profit-take; L5 f=0.30 (calib -0.299 degenerate); L6 no post-rebound chase. Residual on a raised stop 406.37 (close - 1xATR, ratcheted up from 385.00). Proceeds. · news decided @ 424.61 · stop 406.37 · t12w 407.07
2026-07-22	TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing	SELL	418.74	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	64	GROWTH PRICED IN	rationale TSMC's exit case has half-repaired, so we take profits on the de-risk rather than complete it: after a +5.5% session the shares closed at 424.61, back above the 50-day average and only 0.5% under our stop, which is no longer a decisive break - but the model's 12-week view (407.07) is still 4.1% BELOW the price and the engine still reads the name bearishly (AVOID, conviction 64 and rising) on a position we are underwater on. Q2 was a blowout (EPS +74.5%, FY26 revenue growth guided above 40%) yet the rally is a sector-wide AI bid on Taiwan's +83.6% US export orders, not a TSMC re-rating, and the capex raise to -64B is a real margin overhang. So: halve the position into strength at a price 5.5% better than the level the previous verdict was chasing, and keep the other half working with a raised stop. Operational: L2 re-tested and found half-satisfied (stop-break leg healed, negative-12wk leg survives) -> exit SCALED from a full reduce-to-30-residual down to a 50% trim; L3/UT-11 escalation of a FOURTH consecutive 30-share partial fill (txn ustech-20260722-0001) - act at the right size, do not drip a fifth session; G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify (DCF vs price is ~10x broken) so the MoS<=-3 tier bump is deliberately NOT applied; UT-9 - PROFIT_ARMED prints at T12_Progress 104.31 on a -3.06% underwater position (Gain_ATR -0.74) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert, this is a loss-trim not a profit-take; L5 f=0.30 (calib -0.299 degenerate); L6 no post-rebound chase. Residual on a raised stop 406.37 (close - 1xATR, ratcheted up from 385.00). Proceeds. · news decided @ 424.61 · stop 406.37 · t12w 407.07
2026-07-21	TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing	SELL	407.70	NoTrade	0	GROWTH PRICED IN	rationale Cut the loss on TSM: sell 206 of and keep only a 30-share tail. TSMC's Q2 was a genuine blowout - record revenue, profit +77% and full-year growth guidance lifted above 40% with Arizona spending raised to - but the market has spent five sessions selling that news, knocking the shares ~7% from the print on fears that the -64B capex bill compresses margins. Our own forward view has now flipped decisively negative: the 12-week projection has slid ->, i.e. 6% BELOW today's price, while the stock sits 5.7% under its protective stop and 8.2% underwater on cost. Strong fundamentals the tape refuses to pay for are not a reason to keep holding a broken chart, so we step out and leave a small tail in case the AI cycle reasserts. OPERATIONAL: third re-fire of the same armed exit - the 07-17 and 07-18 proposals each executed as only, so the de-risk is still incomplete; UT-11/L3/UT-3 say escalate the residual now, do not re-defer. L2 fully satisfied (decisive break of the 426.80 stop + negative 12wk + bearish/absent signal); row label is NO TRADE (conv 0, consensus conflict) but the label is not required. Residual on stop 385.00 (close - 1xATR); close 402.30 still above EMA200 359.77 so not a full below-EMA200 exit. Valuation val-blind: DCF vs price is broken -> G2 suppress, MoS -16.05 not applied. UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 106.51) on a -8.15% underwater position (Gain_ATR -2.10) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert - this is a loss-cut, not a profit-take. Estimates: 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price on a NoTrade row; model band 388.83-447.08), 12wk 377.71 (-6.1%); f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.299 degenerate). Execution pending the next US open 2026-07-21; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution price. L2/L3/L4/L5/L6/L8, UT-3/UT-9/UT-11 applied. · news decided @ 402.30 · stop 385.00 · t12w 377.71
2026-07-18	TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing	SELL	392.12	RallySell_BearTrend	49	GROWTH PRICED IN	rationale Complete the armed L2 exit: sell 236 more of TSM (reduce -sh residual on stop 380.00). The prior 07-17 SELL 90% only PARTIALLY executed - the auto-executor sold just @ 392.12, leaving 266 held - so the de-risk is incomplete and per L3/UT-3 escalate rather than re-defer. The bear case has STRENGTHENED: row is bearish AVOID/RallySell_BearTrend (conv 49), Target_12Week flipped from +0.4% flat (07-17) to -3.8% NEGATIVE (383.29 vs close 398.37), and the close is a decisive break of the documented 426.80 stop (GainATR -2.15, -9.05% underwater). L2 fully satisfied (stop-break + negative 12wk + bearish signal). Keep a 30-sh residual (TSMC's record Q2 warrants a small tail; close 398.37 is still above EMA200 359.04 so not a full below-EMA200 exit) on stop 380.00 (close - 1xATR). News NEUTRAL for the trade: TSMC Q2 was a blowout (rev +36% YoY, EPS +77%, HPC 66%, + Arizona, FY26 guide >40%) but the stock SOLD the news (-2.77% post-print, still sliding) - fundamentals already priced, price action rejected them; news does not cancel the signal exit. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16.05 but DCF is broken -> G2 suppress, val-blind. PROFIT_ARMED prints but underwater (GainATR -2.15) = arm-on-loss mislabel, not a profit-take. Execution pending next US open 2026-07-20; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution price. Proceeds L2/L3/L4/L5/L6/L8 applied. · news decided @ 398.37 · stop 380.00 · t4w 403.50 · t12w 383.29
2026-07-16	DELL	Dell Technologies Inc	BUY	419.03	PullbackBuy_VWAP	90	FAIR	rationale DELL prints STRONG BUY - ADD conv 100 on PullbackBuy_VWAP with a AI-server backlog, FY27 EPS guide up, 19-up/0-down EPS revisions and a Street 12mo target - a genuinely strong AI-infrastructure name back above our cost. But it just popped +8% and closed 1.32 ATR above the model entry (RSI_DIV), so per no-chase (L6/UT-6) we queue the ADD at the 419.03 model entry rather than chase the pop; fills only on an ~8.4% pullback. Held-name ADD so quality gate N/A; val_adj -10 (MoS -3.06), size-mod 0.5x (MoS<=-3). Stop 420.12 (ratchet, do not lower to model 360.70). 12wk 651.99 exceeds DCF (growth-beyond-priced-in). Auto-withdraw if conv<65 or unfilled by 2026-07-17. · news decided @ 419.03 · stop 420.12 · t1w 432.06 · t4w 462.46 · t12w 651.99
2026-07-10	DELL	Dell Technologies Inc	BUY	450.88	PullbackBuy_VWAP	90	FAIR	rationale Dell is the book's strongest signal — a fresh STRONG BUY (conv 100, Buy_Rank #1) on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, the 3rd straight bullish print with conviction climbing ->100; news CONFIRMS (Evercore lifted its target ->Outperform on AI-infrastructure demand outrunning supply, Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy, Street mean PT). We already hold (buy-stop filled today at 450.88), so this is a disciplined pyramid-ADD queued as a GTC buy-LIMIT at the model pullback entry 411.73 — ~8.5% BELOW the 450.22 close and below our cost, so it fills only on a genuine dip (no chase; L1/UT-6). Priced slightly rich (FAIR_VALUE, MoS_FV -2.50 -> val_adj -10, adj conv 90); size x0.75 -> add (0.66952220.75). Stop 379.44 (model, ~1 ATR / -7.8% from entry). CAVEAT: model 12wk 641.56 far exceeds the DCF anchor and Street mean / Evercore -> realistic near-term objective is the -500 zone; 4wk 459.74 is the trade target. Executes at the next US open 07-10 as a GTC limit, expires 07-15 (spans 07-14 CPI — acceptable: a CPI-driven dip to 411 is a welcome fill). f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5); L8 pending next open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news decided @ 411.73 · stop 379.44 · t1w 426.13 · t4w 459.74 · t12w 641.56
2026-07-08	TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing	BUY	438.02	FailedBreakdown_Up_20D	76	—	rationale AI-foundry momentum upgraded to STRONG BUY (conv 76, Buy_Rank #3) off the settled 07-06 close: Barclays Overweight PT, consensus Strong Buy (13/17), 3nm capacity expansion (TW/AZ/JP) + wafer price hikes, +93% 52wk. Model prints a Market order at 451.79 but converted to a GTC buy-limit at the same price to avoid chasing into the 07-08 FOMC minutes (overlay: no new leverage into the print), 07-14 CPI, and Q2 earnings 07-16 -> fills only without a gap-up; expires 07-10, before earnings. FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is an L1-discounted chase cell and this is a single fresh print (L4) -> modest starter, not a max position. NA_CCY valuation -> val_adj 0, gate off. f=0.30 (L5). Sized 0.66951M0.20 ->. · news decided @ 451.79 · stop 438.91 · t1w 467.25 · t4w 503.31 · t12w 538.11

Learnings in force

What this book's own record has taught it.

Last reviewed 2026-07-18

Favor PullbackBuy_VWAP entries over breakout/FailedBreakdown chases.

`PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy` is the most reliable buy cell (US hit ~0.86); `FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy` chases are weak (~0.25, stop-first ~60%) and `BreakoutUp_52W` 4wk targets overshoot +55-75% and mean-revert. On ties prefer the PullbackBuy; discount breakout/FailedBreakdown chases.

Trim on the stop-break + negative-12wk combo; don't wait for the SELL-REDUCE label.

A decisive close below the recorded stop AND a negative 12wk is itself a signal-based exit (CLAUDE.md §9), even while the engine still prints NO TRADE.

Execute the de-risk promptly.

A trim recommended but not executed keeps bleeding; act when a held name closes below stop with a negative 12wk, don't re-recommend the same trim for days.

The settled close is authoritative; don't act on weak opens.

Intraday/BOD prints whipsaw. Flag intraday reads provisional; reserve firm acquire/dispose for the settled-close EOD.

Distrust the model 1-week estimate when `calib_1w` is degenerate.

If the scorecard `calib_1w_fraction` is <=0 or wildly unstable, fall back to f=0.30 for the 1wk interpolation and flag it.

Don't chase post-earnings gaps.

A blowout (e.g. MU +14% AH) often round-trips within days; wait for the pullback to the model entry.

(ARCHIVED for ustech — ADR-0014 standalone) Same-pool/cross-book shares execute ONCE.

Applied when ustech mirrored us. Post-2026-07-06 ustech runs on its own US seed with no shared shares — nothing to reconcile; own cash independently (UT-7). Retained only as the generic rule for a book that still shares a pool with us.

EOD recommendations execute at the NEXT market open, not the decision close.

Persist actions as `execution_status: pending_next_open` with an `execute_on` date; action prices are close-refs — reprice/re-validate if the open gaps >~1.5%; the 1wk/4wk/12wk horizons and the scorecard grade from the execution date/price; live holdings/monitor stay unchanged until the JSON is updated post-fill; the next BOD reconciles pending proposals against the actual open.