SG Mid/Small Cap — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (both sides) - 22nd written EOD verdict since 07-03
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 558 | UMS Integration | 2.47 | WATCH | 2.47 | 2.47 | n/a | n/a | 2.16 (-12.6%) | After nine quiet sessions this name has flipped to an outright warning flag - and it did so on a day the shares rose almost 3%, which is our system's way of saying the move looked like a failed push higher rather than the start of a trend. On top of that, the shares still look expensive against what the business earns and the quality screen fails, so there is no version of this we would buy. We own none of it and this mandate is long-only, so there is nothing to do. OPS: FailedBreakout_Down_20D cv67 (entry 2.47, stop 2.47, no Target_Price, edATR -0.0), breaking 9 consecutive NO TRADE cv0. PASSED the liquidity gate cleanly (2.02% spread, S turnover) - a genuine cascade output, not a gate artifact. Valuation carried unchanged from the 08-04 regen: GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -3.777 (val_adj -10), Quality_Pass False. Adj conviction 57. T12 2.16 vs 2.47 = -12.6%. SGM-4a (double-blocked) and SGM-4b (lone bearish carrier) now apply to the same name in the same session; a lone AVOID confirms an empty buy pool, it never populates one. RE-ARM for a long is remote and requires a valuation/quality re-rate FIRST. · news |
| PCT | PC Partner Group | 2.97 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 4.00 | The one genuinely interesting business in this mandate, and our system blocked it again tonight - by three hundredths of a percentage point. Our filter rejects days where a stock swings too wildly intraday; today's swing came to 3.03% against a 3.00% limit, roughly a tenth of a cent of range on a Sshare. Measured against the stock's own typical volatility this was actually a quiet day. The cheapness we liked two weeks ago is gone after the rally, so any future purchase has to be justified on the chart alone. There may also be a results announcement imminent that we could not verify. OPS: 10th straight NO TRADE cv0, again Fail_Spread. Replay of compute_liquidity_gate on tonight's row: High 3.04 / Low 2.95 / Close 2.97 => range 3.0303% vs SG's 3.00% cap; range/ATR just 0.59 - exactly the case US/HK's range_to_atr mode would pass. Valuation carried from the 08-04 regen: FAIR_VALUE, MoS -0.030, val_adj 0 - no valuation help left. Keeps the book's only positive forward view, T12 4.00 vs 2.97 = +34.7%, but that re-rated +2.8% on a +0.34% price day (~8x the move) - procyclical, discount it (systemic finding 1). RSI 61.1, highest in book; Quality_Pass True, F-Score 8. RE-ARM: settled PullbackBuy_VWAP/MomentumContinuation BUY at RAW cv >= 65 clearing the spread gate - the gate mechanically favours a quiet consolidation day over a wide-range day. DO NOT hand-tune the 3% threshold (validated; forward-test rule) - this is a champion/challenger shadow-test case. · news |
| 8AZ | Aztech Global | 0.63 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.36 | Yesterday's outright breakdown warning has vanished from tonight's output, and that is not good news - it disappeared only because the shares swung too widely for our filter to evaluate them at all, not because anything improved. Underneath, this remains the weakest name in the mandate: it fell again, momentum is at a fresh low, the quality screen fails outright, and our twelve-week view sits more than 40% below the current price. Cheap and shrinking is exactly what we refuse to buy. OPS: yesterday's BreakdownDown_20D cv68 decayed to NO TRADE cv0 purely because the range widened to 3.17% (Fail_Spread) - the cascade never ran. A gate-suppressed AVOID is NOT a withdrawn AVOID. Price -1.56% to 0.63, RSI 20.2 (fresh low for the book), T12 0.36 = -42.9%, worst in book alongside M14/S71. Valuation carried from the 08-04 regen: UNDERVALUED MoS +0.168 but Quality_Pass FALSE, so val_adj is halved to +2 and new entries are hard-gated regardless of discount; note FV_per_share itself fell 0.855 -> 0.769 and DCF 0.955 -> 0.469 on 08-04, i.e. the model is marking the business down nearly as fast as the tape. RE-ARM: FY2026 revenue stabilisation repairing Quality_Pass, THEN a settled favoured-cell BUY >= 65. Dividend line item stays CLOSED as unverifiable - do not re-open it. |
| M14 | InnoTek | 0.51 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.29 | The developing breakdown we flagged last night has dropped out of tonight's output, but only because the shares moved too erratically for our filter to assess them - the underlying weakness is unchanged and the stock fell again. Our twelve-week view remains more than 40% below the current price. We own none of it and cannot short, so this is a record, not a trade. OPS: the 2-consecutive FailedBreakout_Down_20D (cv60 -> cv66) is gone tonight solely via Fail_Spread (6.86% range) - the cascade never ran, so treat the flag as suppressed, not withdrawn. Price -1.92% to 0.51, RSI 34.2, T12 0.29 = -43.1%. Valuation carried from the 08-04 regen: GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -1.452 (val_adj -7), Quality_Pass False, F-Score 4. SGM-4b, 6th instance: long-only + means no position to protect and no trade to place. |
| AWX | AEM Holdings | 8.93 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 7.69 | The biggest gainer in the mandate today and up nearly a fifth from its late-July low - and in ten sessions it has still not produced a single buy signal. The underlying trend indicators are finally turning, which is worth noting, but a bounce without a signal is not a reset, and our twelve-week view still sits well below today's price. Our valuation model also continues to give a contradictory reading on this name, so we lean on the chart. OPS: +4.69% to 8.93, now +18.4% off the 07-30 low, 10th consecutive NO TRADE cv0. First Consolidation_Bullish consensus of the window (Trend 70 / Momentum 42 / Volatility 25), RSI back to 50.0 - pillars turning but the cascade produced nothing, and the gate blocked it anyway (4.03% spread, Fail_Spread). T12 7.69 vs 8.93 = -13.9%. MSCAP-2 recurs for a 10th consecutive session: FAIR_VALUE label paired with MoS -9.533 (val_adj -10) - a label and a magnitude that cannot both be right; lean on MoS sign + technical, never magnitude. No re-arm; watch for an actual bullish cascade output rather than the bounce. |
| S71 | Sunright | 0.51 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.29 | Still the widest discount anywhere in the mandate, and still effectively untradeable - about Schanged hands all session, a fresh low, on a stock that swung nearly 10% intraday. Even with the largest valuation tailwind available to us, the shares are projected sharply lower over twelve weeks. There is no realistic way to build or exit a position at these volumes. OPS: the only Fail_Both name - Sturnover (below the S floor) AND a 9.80% range. Price +3.03% to 0.51. Valuation carried from the 08-04 regen: UNDERVALUED MoS +0.454, Quality_Pass True, val_adj +9 (largest in book) - which would still only lower the required raw conviction to 56, a level the chart has never approached. T12 0.29 vs 0.51 = -43.1%. RE-ARM: genuine turnover AND trend repair, in that order. Textbook SGM-5: cheap and weak is not a signal. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.