SG Mid/Small Cap — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (both sides) - 24th written EOD verdict since 07-03; buy pool re-emptied via the liquidity gate, plus a severity-1 ex-dividend data defect on BN2
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| BN2 | Valuetronics Holdings | 0.99 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 1.10 | Valuetronics paid its dividend today and the data feed we rely on mis-handled it, rewriting the whole price history downwards by far more than the dividend was actually worth. The result is a set of readings that make a share which fell nearly six percent today look like one of the strongest names we follow. None of it is real, so we are setting the stock aside entirely until the numbers line up again rather than trading on figures we know to be wrong. OPERATIONAL: SEVERITY-1 DATA DEFECT. Ex-div 2026-08-07, recorded dividend SGD 0.048981 (4.67%), but Yahoo back-adjusted history by 28.57% (pre-ex factor 0.750/1.05=0.7143 -> post-ex 1.000) - ~6x over-adjustment. sg.ini auto_adjust=true so indicators consumed adjusted close gapping 0.750 -> 0.990 (+32.0%) while raw close went 1.05 -> 0.99 (-5.71%). Damage: EMA200 0.9639->0.6915, EMA20 1.0724->0.7874, VWAP 1.0744->0.7815; RSI 43.2->79.9, ATR 0.0261->0.0669 (2.6x), Trend, consensus Indeterminate->Consolidation_Bullish, T12 0.97 (-7.6%) -> 1.10 (+11.1%). ONLY the liquidity gate stopped it (3.03% range vs 3.00% cap - 0.03pp margin). MUTED ON SIGNALS: discard every derived field until the EMA ladder reconciles with the raw series. Search snippet quoting 'SGD 0.30 ex-date 2026-08-07' is that same broken factor read back as a dividend (0.2857 x 1.05 = 0.30); a separate Yahoo headline cites HK (~SGD 0.028). Tape settles it at ~SGD 0.05. Affects sg/sgreit/sgotr/sgmscap on every ex-date; US/HK unaffected (auto_adjust=false). See systemic finding 1. · news |
| PCT | PC Partner Group | 2.92 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 3.95 | PC Partner remains the most interesting name on our list and it improved again today, with the weak momentum reading that held it back yesterday starting to recover while the price edged higher. It did not produce a tradeable signal though - the shares swung too widely during the session for our dealing filter to let anything through. We are close, but we buy on our terms or not at all. OPERATIONAL: last night's PullbackBuy_VWAP cv62 is gone, suppressed UPSTREAM of the conviction test by Liquidity gate failed (4.11% intraday range 2.83-2.95 on SGD 2.24m turnover) - NOT a floor rejection; we never learned what it would have scored. Momentum pillar REPAIRED (the exact re-arm condition set on 08-06), Trend held 77, Volatility 30; +1.04% to 2.920, RSI 58.5, VWAP distance +7.70%, T12 3.95 (+35.3%, still the book's only genuine positive forward view - discount per finding 4). FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.030 -> val_adj 0, no valuation help available. News unchanged from 08-06: 1HFY2026 profit alert ~2x (HK vs HK), preliminary/unaudited, publication date still UNVERIFIED - classified confirms, and bounded-news cannot promote a row that never printed. RE-ARM is a two-legged AND: settled PullbackBuy_VWAP/MomentumContinuation that CLEARS THE GATE and prints raw cv >= 65. Each leg has now been satisfied on a different day, one session apart - a gate-cadence problem, not an opportunity problem. Last printed shape: entry 2.74 limit, stop 2.56, target 3.17. DO NOT hand-tune the 3% gate to bridge it (MSCAP-1/SGM-3, forward-test rule). · news |
| 8AZ | Aztech Global | 0.61 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.34 | The rebound signal we declined to act on yesterday has already proved to be a false dawn - the shares fell another two and a half percent today to a fresh low, so passing on it saved us money within a single session. The company still fails our financial-strength test and our own outlook for the stock is deeply negative, so nothing here has changed for the better. OPERATIONAL: last night's ReversalUp_Oversold cv80/adj82 (declined on Quality_Pass False, hard gate on new entries) fell -2.42% to 0.605 in ONE session - the book's first hard evidence that the quality gate pays. Buying the 0.62 entry would have left the book -2.4% into a shut-market long weekend (SGX closed Mon 10 Aug). Tonight NoTrade / Liquidity gate failed (4.13% range), so two independent blocks now stand between it and the pool. RSI 18.3 (fresh low), -14.55% below VWAP, T12 0.34 vs 0.605 = -43.8%, worst forward view in the book. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.168 halved for quality -> val_adj +2; cheapness never originates a position (SGM-5). RE-ARM unchanged: FY2026 revenue stabilisation repairing Quality_Pass FIRST, then a settled favoured-cell BUY >= 65. Dividend line item stays CLOSED - the cited 9.9% yield did not reconcile with 0.62 and does not reconcile with 0.605. NOTE finding 6(c): the scorer still cannot grade this vindication, so the gate accumulates no track record. |
| AWX | AEM Holdings | 9.15 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 8.48 | AEM was the best performer in the mandate today and the business news around it is genuinely strong - profits have quadrupled year on year and management has guided sales sharply higher. But we have now waited twelve straight sessions without our system producing a single entry signal, and today the stock was rejected on trading conditions despite being by far the most actively traded name we follow. Good news we cannot act on is not a position. OPERATIONAL: +3.62% to 9.15, Trend pillar 70, consensus Consolidation_Bullish, close +5.28% above VWAP - yet Liquidity gate failed on a 5.25% intraday range (8.68-9.16) despite SGD 34.4m turnover, the LARGEST in the book. This is the cleanest refutation of the gate's 'liquidity' framing available (systemic finding 2). T12 re-rated 7.82 -> 8.48 (+8.4% on a +3.62% price day, ~2.3x amplification - finding 4) but still -7.3% vs close. NEWS confirms: FY2025 revenue +5.0% to SGD 399.3m; 1Q2026 revenue +36% YoY to SGD 116.9m, net profit >4x, net margin 3.9% -> 12.3%; FY2026 guidance SGD 460-510m, five analysts at SGD 589m; stock +90% YTD. PUBLICATION DATES UNVERIFIED and one item cites a 'Slast Friday' close that does not reconcile with tonight's 9.15 - treat as undated background, not a catalyst; bounded-news cannot promote a name with zero bullish prints. MSCAP-2 recurs for a 12th consecutive session (FAIR_VALUE label with MoS -9.533 - lean on the sign, never the x5 magnitude). No re-arm; watch for an actual bullish cascade output, not for the price to keep moving. · news |
| M14 | InnoTek | 0.51 | WATCH | 0.51 | 0.51 | n/a | n/a | 0.29 (-43.1%) | InnoTek is once again the only name in the mandate producing a definite reading, and once again it is a negative one - a failed attempt to break higher, and a firmer signal than yesterday. We own none of it and we do not sell short, so there is nothing to do. What it tells us is that the pool of things worth buying here still has not improved. OPERATIONAL: cv55 (up from cv46 on 08-06, cv66 on 08-04), the ONLY row in the book to clear the gate and reach an actionable print tonight. Entry/stop 0.51, no Target_Price, T12 0.29 = -43.1%, second-worst in book. GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -1.452 -> val_adj -7, Quality_Pass False, F_Score 4; adjusted 48. +2.00% to 0.510 on SGD 379,848 turnover. Long-only + => no action either way - SGM-4b, 8th instance. A lone AVOID confirms an empty buy pool; it never populates one. |
| S71 | Sunright | 0.47 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.27 | Sunright remains the cheapest business on our list against its own fundamentals, and it remains the one we are least able to buy. It fell four percent today on almost no volume and with an unusually wide swing between its high and low - the hallmark of a share where even a modest order would move the price against us. Cheapness on its own has never been a reason for us to buy, and it is not one here. OPERATIONAL: -4.08% to 0.470 on an 8.51% intraday range (0.43-0.47) and SGD 51,277 turnover - the only Fail_Both profile in the book and deteriorating. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.454, Quality_Pass True -> val_adj +9, the book's largest, which would lower the required raw conviction only to 56 - still far above anything the chart prints (Trend 43, Momentum 32, Volatility 30, Consolidation_Bearish, RSI 37.3, -9.68% below VWAP, T12 0.27 = -42.6%). SGM-5 stands: a QPass-True UNDERVALUED reading never originates a position absent a bullish chart AND liquidity clearance. Re-arm needs genuine turnover first, then trend repair, in that order. 5DD joins it as effectively untradeable tonight (SGD 59,787 turnover). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.