Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 26th session. The three-day bounce in both leveraged trackers was erased in a single day: 7709 fell 19.1% and 7747 fell 11.2%, both gapping open sharply lower and never recovering. Yesterday's note declined that bounce precisely because the closing shape and volume contradicted the price gain - a buy at yesterday's close would be down 19% and 11% today, on vehicles where that is a normal daily move. The volume the recovery needed finally arrived, but it arrived on the way down (7709 up 47% on a 19% decline), which is selling, not accumulation. The Korean memory complex remains more than 20% below its highs and the mechanism is still a forced unwind of leveraged ETFs and retail margin - the exact vehicle this book would be buying. OPS: buy pool empty a 6th straight session; both rows AVOID on FailedBreakout_Down_20D, engine 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=61/63); do not open (long-only).' HL-2 12wk 43.0% below close on both (clamp artifact, finding 4 - declines rest on HL-3/HL-4). HL-3 Stop==Entry==Close, Target_Price blank, zero-width risk band, 6th session. HL-4 conviction FELL / into the [HOLD] band while the bearish thesis was confirmed - no bullish read, see new finding 7. Re-arm reset to step zero: EMA5 lost on both (7709 -12.3%, 7747 -6.7%); 7747's EMA200 overhang widened 25.2%->40.3%. Horizon: NFP tomorrow 08-07, then TSMC rev ~08-10, US CPI 08-12, AMAT 08-13 - four touches on 7709, no pre-positioning (L6/HL-6). Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0). Scorecard 0 graded of 64, calib null, f=0.30 (L5/HL-6). Overlay 32d stale, framing only. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 31.50 | WATCH | 31.50 | 31.50 | n/a | n/a | 17.95 (-43.0%) | Avoid - no position, none taken. This 2x SK Hynix tracker gave back the entire three-day bounce in one session, falling 19.1%: it gapped open 15% lower at 33.10, could only reach 34.06, and closed at 31.50 - below where it traded three days ago. Crucially, volume rose 47% on that decline, the first real participation of the whole bounce, and it came from sellers. The 5-day average it reclaimed yesterday is now 12% overhead again, every longer average is 22-58% above price, and the name sits 84% below its 52-week high. The model still declines to define a stop for it, so there is no risk-defined way to own it at any price. Close 31.50 (-19.1%; open 33.10, high 34.06, low 31.00, -7.5% off the high). Volume 239.6M vs 163.1M (+46.9%) - rising volume on a DOWN day, the re-arm condition met in the wrong direction. Signal FailedBreakout_Down_20D cv61, dropped out of the [SELL] band into [HOLD] while price fell 19% - see finding 7). Engine: 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=61); do not open (long-only).' HL-2: Target_12Week 17.95 = 43.0% below close (ratio pinned 0.5698 for 17 sessions - clamp artifact, finding 4). HL-3: Stop_Price == Entry_Price == Close 31.50, Order_Type Market, Target_Price blank - zero-width risk band, 6th consecutive session. RSI 37.15, ATR 13.70 = 43.5% of close (now UNDERstating risk vs 15-19% realised daily moves - finding 5). EMA5 35.94 LOST (-12.3%); EMA10/20/50/100 = 40.63/54.02/74.14/71.32 (-22.5%/-41.7%/-57.5%/-55.8%); EMA200 blank (insufficient history, finding 6). VWAP distance -34.8% (was -26.4%). Pillars 42/38/36, Consolidation_Bearish, Transitional, mid_vol. Est band 22.05-40.95. Held above the 07-30 crash low of 25.36 - a failed bounce, not yet a fresh breakdown. RE-ARM (step zero): reclaim EMA5 35.94, then EMA10 40.63 (+29.0% above) on rising volume with an upper-half close, plus a bullish label with a 2nd confirming print and a usable stop. Event-crowded and immediate: NFP 08-07, TSMC rev ~08-10, US CPI 08-12, AMAT 08-13 - no pre-positioning (L6/HL-6). Declined prints now mark 07-14 @65.20 -51.7%, 07-20 @52.58 -40.1%, 07-27 @54.50 -42.2%. · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 62.08 | WATCH | 62.08 | 62.08 | n/a | n/a | 35.39 (-43.0%) | Avoid - no position, none taken. This 2x Samsung Electronics tracker fell 11.2%, gapping open 9% lower at 63.44 and never trading above that level all day. Unlike its sister fund the selling was low-participation - volume was flat - and it did close in the upper half of its range, which makes the day marginally less damning; but the range itself sat entirely below yesterday's close. The 5-day average reclaimed yesterday is lost again, and the 200-day line is now 40% above price, wider than it was three sessions ago. Samsung's blowout Q2 has already printed and was sold; the leveraged-ETF unwind driving the complex is, by the sell-side's own account, not finished. Close 62.08 (-11.2%; open 63.44, high 63.46, low 60.08, -2.2% off the high, +3.3% off the low). Volume 16.54M vs 16.49M (+0.3%) - flat, a gap-and-drift rather than capitulation. Signal FailedBreakout_Down_20D cv63, out of the [SELL] band into [HOLD] - finding 7). Engine: 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=63); do not open (long-only).' HL-2: Target_12Week 35.39 = 43.0% below close (ratio pinned 0.5701 for 19 sessions - clamp artifact, finding 4). HL-3: Stop_Price == Entry_Price == Close 62.08, Order_Type Market, Target_Price blank - zero-width risk band, 6th consecutive session. RSI 39.30, ATR 12.30 = 19.8% of close. EMA5 66.52 LOST (-6.7%); EMA10/20/50/100 = 70.60/83.78/108.11/107.49 (-12.1%/-25.9%/-42.6%/-42.2%); EMA200 87.09 now 40.3% ABOVE price (widened from 25.2%). VWAP distance -17.5%. Pillars 48/41/27, Consolidation_Bearish, Trending, mid_vol. Est band 43.46-78.50. Held above the 07-30 crash low of 51.90. RE-ARM: reclaim EMA5 66.52, then EMA10 70.60 (+13.7% above), then the real test - reclaim-and-hold EMA200 87.09 - on rising volume, plus a bullish label with a 2nd confirming print and a usable stop. Both direct catalysts (SK Hynix Q2 07-29, Samsung Q2 07-30) have printed; horizon carries no 7747 event inside 10 sessions. Declined prints now mark 07-14 @95.30 -34.9%, 07-27 @83.42 -25.6%. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.