Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 25th session. Both leveraged trackers still print bearish AVOID signals at the close, and today they rose for a third day but with the wrong shape: each opened near its high and faded to close below its own open, on volume down 30-39%. That is selling into strength, not a base. Morgan Stanley did upgrade Korean equities to Overweight with a 36% index target - noted honestly - but the same note says the unwinding of leveraged ETFs is only 'past the midpoint', and a leveraged ETF is precisely what this book would be buying. The one real improvement is that both names closed above their 5-day average for the first time since the crash; that is the first of several boxes, not the entry. OPS: buy pool empty a 5th straight session; both convictions (cv70/cv75) now clear the 65 floor on BEARISH [SELL] rows - the HL-4 trap, not a buy. HL-2 12wk 43.0% below close on both (clamp artifact, see finding 4 - declines rest on HL-3/HL-4). HL-3 Stop==Entry==Close, Target_Price blank, zero-width risk band, 5th session. Re-arm: EMA5 reclaimed on both; next EMA10 (7709 43.82, +11.1%; 7747 73.44, +4.8%) on RISING volume plus a bullish label with a 2nd confirming print and a usable stop. Horizon: 7709 touched 4x inside 10 sessions (NFP 08-07, TSMC rev ~08-10, US CPI 08-12, AMAT 08-13) - no pre-positioning (L6/HL-6). Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0). Scorecard 0 graded of 61, calib null, f=0.30 (L5/HL-6). |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 38.94 | WATCH | 38.94 | 38.94 | n/a | n/a | 22.20 (-43.0%) | Avoid - no position, none taken. This 2x SK Hynix tracker rose a third day, up 5.0%, and for the first time since the crash it closed above its 5-day average - a genuine first step. But the day itself was a fade: it opened at 39.50, ran to 41.50, then closed 38.94, six percent off the high and below its own open, on volume down 38%. It remains 80% below its 52-week high with every longer average still overhead, and the model still refuses to define a stop for it. A sell-side upgrade of the Korean market does not make a leveraged tracker ownable while the leveraged-ETF unwind it cites is explicitly unfinished. Close 38.94 (+5.0%; open 39.50, high 41.50, low 38.50, -6.2% off the high). Volume 163.1M vs 265.4M (-38.5%). Signal FailedBreakout_Down_20D [SELL] cv70 on a BEARISH row = HL-4: growing confidence in a further fall; now clears 65 on the wrong side). Engine: 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=70); do not open (long-only).' HL-2: Target_12Week 22.20 = 43.0% below close (ratio pinned 0.5701 for 16 sessions - clamp artifact, finding 4). HL-3: Stop_Price == Entry_Price == Close 38.94, Order_Type Market, Target_Price blank - zero-width risk band, no usable long stop, 5th consecutive session. RSI 39.38, ATR 18.06 = 46.4% of close (sizing meaningless). EMA5 38.38 RECLAIMED (+1.5%); EMA10/20/50/100 = 43.82/58.40/77.46/72.83 (-11.1%/-33.3%/-49.7%/-46.5%); EMA200 blank (insufficient history, finding 6). VWAP distance -26.4%. Pillars 42/38/36, Consolidation_Bearish, Transitional, mid_vol. Est band 27.26-50.62. RE-ARM: EMA10 43.82 on rising volume + bullish label + 2nd confirming print + usable stop. Event-crowded: NFP 08-07, TSMC rev ~08-10, US CPI 08-12, AMAT 08-13 - no pre-positioning (L6/HL-6). Declined prints now mark 07-14 @65.20 -40.2%, 07-20 @52.58 -25.9%, 07-27 @54.50 -28.6%. · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 69.94 | WATCH | 69.94 | 69.94 | n/a | n/a | 39.87 (-43.0%) | Avoid - no position, none taken. This 2x Samsung Electronics tracker added 3.1% and closed above its 5-day average for the first time since the crash, but it gave back nearly all of the day: it opened at 71.00, touched 73.06, and closed 69.94 - four percent off the high and less than half a percent above the session low - on volume down 30%. Price is still a quarter below its 200-day line and 71% under its 52-week high. Samsung's blowout Q2 was met with profit-taking rather than buying, and while Morgan Stanley now rates Korea Overweight, it also says the leveraged-ETF unwind is only half done - which is a warning aimed squarely at this instrument. Close 69.94 (+3.1%; open 71.00, high 73.06, low 69.68, -4.3% off the high, +0.4% off the low). Volume 16.49M vs 23.70M (-30.4%). Signal FailedBreakout_Down_20D [SELL] cv75 - conviction clears the 65 floor on a BEARISH row, the HL-4 trap; the acquire floor screens bullish actionable labels only. Engine: 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=75); do not open (long-only).' HL-2: Target_12Week 39.87 = 43.0% below close (ratio pinned 0.5700 for 18 sessions - clamp artifact, finding 4). HL-3: Stop_Price == Entry_Price == Close 69.94, Order_Type Market, Target_Price blank - zero-width risk band, 5th consecutive session. RSI 41.37, ATR 14.68 = 21.0% of close. EMA5 68.83 RECLAIMED (+1.6%); EMA10/20/50/100 = 73.44/87.96/111.71/109.23 (-4.8%/-20.5%/-37.4%/-36.0%); EMA200 87.54 still 25.2% ABOVE price (narrowed from 29.3%). VWAP distance -11.6%. Pillars 44/49/36, Consolidation_Bearish, Trending, mid_vol. Est band 48.96-90.92. RE-ARM: EMA10 73.44, then reclaim-and-hold EMA200 87.54, on rising volume + bullish label + 2nd confirming print + usable stop. Both direct catalysts (SK Hynix Q2 07-29, Samsung Q2 07-30) have printed; horizon carries no 7747 event inside 10 sessions. Declined prints now mark 07-14 @95.30 -26.6%, 07-27 @83.42 -16.2%. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.