Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 24th session. Both leveraged trackers in this book still print bearish AVOID signals at the close, and the memory complex they follow is whipsawing violently rather than trending - Korea posted its biggest one-day gain on record last Friday (+17.9%), gave nearly all of it back on Monday, and the sector is still more than 20% below its highs. On a 2x tracker that band is doubled in both directions, which is exactly what you cannot own without a defined stop. Today was the first constructive bar (both names closed at the session high on rising volume), but one bar is not a repair. OPS: buy pool empty a 4th straight session - neither row prints a bullish actionable label, so the conv-65 acquire floor is never reached (7747 cv66 CLEARS 65 on a BEARISH row = the HL-4 trap). HL-2 (T12 43.0% below close on both), HL-3 (Stop == Entry == Close, zero-width risk band, Target_Price blank) and HL-4 each veto independently. No holdings, so no dispose side. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0); scorecard 0 graded of 58, no actionable cells, calib_1w null -> f=0.30 stands (L5/HL-6). Horizon: no direct 7709/7747 catalyst in 10 days; NFP 08-07 macro-only. Overlay 30d stale, framing only. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 37.10 | WATCH | 37.10 | 37.10 | n/a | n/a | 21.15 (-43.0%) | Avoid - no position, none taken. This 2x SK Hynix tracker had its best-looking day since the crash: it opened at the session low and closed at the session high, up 4.7% on 47% heavier volume. But it is still below every moving average, sits 81% under its 52-week high, and its own 12-week fair path prints 43% below today's price - a one-day bid inside a bear market is not a bottom, and the model still refuses to define a stop. Close 37.10 (+4.7%; open 32.38, low 32.28, close = high 37.16, +14.9% off the low), volume 265.4M vs 180.3M (+47.2%). Signal FailedBreakout_Down_20D cv62 on a BEARISH row = HL-4: growing confidence in a further fall). Engine: 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=62); do not open (long-only)'. HL-2: Target_12Week 21.15 is 43.0% below close - re-arm bar (12wk >= close + 2nd confirming bullish print) unmet; note the T12/Close ratio has been pinned at 0.5700 for 15 sessions (clamp artifact - Systemic finding 4). HL-3: Stop_Price == Entry_Price == Close 37.10, Order_Type Market, Target_Price blank - zero-width risk band, no usable long stop. ATR 21.65 = 58.4% of close: sizing off that band is meaningless. Below EMA5/10/20/50/100 (38.66/45.20/60.61/79.09/73.55; EMA200 NaN), VWAP dist -31.9%, RSI 38.26, pillars 42/30/36, consensus Consolidation_Bearish, regime Transitional, Est band 25.97-48.23. Re-arm to observe: 12wk >= close AND a 2nd bullish print (ideally PullbackBuy_VWAP) AND a usable stop; structural evidence = reclaim EMA5 38.66 then EMA10 45.20 on sustained rising volume - today cleared the volume test only. No pre-positioning into Korean-memory headlines (L6/HL-6); both direct catalysts have already printed. · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 67.84 | WATCH | 67.84 | 67.84 | n/a | n/a | 38.67 (-43.0%) | Avoid - no position, none taken. This 2x Samsung Electronics tracker firmed 1.8% and closed near its session high on 71% heavier volume, but price is still 29% below its 200-day line, 72% under its 52-week high, and the 12-week fair path sits 43% below today's close. Samsung's blowout Q2 was met with profit-taking rather than buying and Korea round-tripped a record rally in a single session - that is a re-rating and a whipsaw, not a trend to lever into. Close 67.84 (+1.8%; open 62.02, low 61.16, +10.9% off the low, high 68.36), volume 23.70M vs 13.86M (+70.9%). Signal FailedBreakout_Down_20D cv66 - the conviction now CLEARS the 65 floor on a bearish [SELL] row, the exact HL-4 trap: the acquire floor screens bullish actionable labels only. HL-2: Target_12Week 38.67 is 43.0% below close (T12/Close pinned at 0.5700 for 17 sessions - clamp artifact, Systemic finding 4). HL-3: Stop_Price == Entry_Price == Close 67.84, Order_Type Market, Target_Price blank - zero-width risk band, no usable long stop. Below EMA5/10/20/50/100 (68.68/74.44/89.97/113.46/110.05) with EMA200 87.73 sitting 29.3% ABOVE price; VWAP dist -16.5%, RSI 40.47, ATR 17.71 (26.1% of close), pillars 48/59/27, consensus Consolidation_Bearish, regime Trending, Est band 47.49-88.19. Re-arm to observe: 12wk >= close AND reclaim-and-hold of EMA200 87.73 (EMA5 68.68 is the first step, 1.2% away) AND a 2nd confirming bullish print. Samsung Q2 (07-30) already printed - no gap-chase (L6/HL-6). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.