Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 28th session - and today the book's caution was tested and vindicated inside a single trading day. Yesterday the 2x SK Hynix tracker (7709) printed its first bullish-looking signal since 20-July and closed at the session high; the book declined it explicitly because a one-bar oversold bounce off a crash is not a trend and the identical 20-July print had reverted the very next session. It reverted again today: the signal flipped straight to a breakdown read and the price fell 7.6% to 28.70. Buying yesterday's close would already be down 7.6%. The sibling Samsung tracker (7747) slipped 3.2% to 61.70 on the lightest volume of the week. Volume halved on both names, which reads as sellers being exhausted rather than buyers arriving - nobody is dumping, but nobody is accumulating either. Nothing is buyable: neither name carries a bullish actionable signal, both sit below the conviction floor, and the risk levels are unusable - 7709's row is actually structured as a short (entry below the close, stop above it, a negative target), which on a long-only book means no entry can be built from it at all. Valuation is blind on both (leveraged ETFs have no fundamentals to value). The one genuine positive is that the 30-July base still holds and daily volatility keeps compressing on both names - the precondition for a real base, but not yet a base. On the fundamental side the sell-side has turned: Morgan Stanley upgraded Korean equities to Overweight on 3-Aug with a KOSPI target 36% higher, calling the crash largely technical - but the same note pencils a near-term range of while the leverage unwind finishes, and a two-way band that wide is itself the argument against a doubled-up vehicle. Holding cash into TSMC July revenue (11-Aug), US CPI (12-Aug), Applied Materials (13-Aug) and FOMC minutes (19-Aug), all doubled through a 2x tracker. Learnings applied: HL-2 (no one-bar oversold flip - now 0-for-2 on this ticker), HL-3 (no entry without a usable stop - the binding gate, now sign-inverted), HL-4 (persistent breakdown label on 7747), L6/HL-6 (no pre-positioning into events). Scorecard 0 graded of 70, calib_1w null, f=0.30. Counterfactual optional_trim n=22 median -21.4% is MIS-SIGNED for a cash-only book - it measures declined buys, i.e. avoided-buy discipline that paid; advisory only. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 28.70 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 16.36 | No position, none taken - and yesterday's tentative improvement in this 2x SK Hynix tracker has already failed. Twenty-four hours ago it printed an oversold-reversal signal and closed at the high of the day; today the signal flipped to an outright breakdown read, conviction fell to 54, and the price dropped 7.6% to 28.70 with no reversal tail - it opened 29.38, traded 29.62 to 27.50, and closed mid-range. That is the second time in three weeks an oversold bounce on this ticker has reverted within one session (the 20-July print did exactly the same), which is why the rule here is to require a second confirming day before ever acting on the first. Volume halved to 169 million from yesterday's 322 million, so there was no conviction behind either side. Yesterday's near-reclaim of the 5-day average has widened back out to 11.5% below it, RSI made a new low for the week at 36, and the recovery off the 30-July bottom is now three-quarters given back. The row itself is unbuyable in the most literal sense: the model prints a sell-stop order at 22.74, an entry below the current price with the stop 48.08 above it and a target of minus 27.94. That is a short structure, and this is a long-only book - no risk-defined long entry can be constructed from it at any conviction. Two things still point the right way and are worth watching: the low of 27.50 held above the 30-July bottom of 25.36, so the base is technically intact, and daily volatility keeps compressing (average range now 35% of the price, down from 43% a week ago) - compression is the precondition for a base. Note also the decay arithmetic from the verified 5-Aug session: SK Hynix rose as much as 7.9% intraday and this 2x tracker captured only 5.0% of it, which is why a durable trend, not a bounce, is the bar. Re-arm ladder resets to zero: reclaim the 5-day at 32.44, then the 10-day at 37.04, on a second confirming bullish print, at conviction 65 or better, with a usable long stop. HL-2 (now 0-for-2 here), HL-3 (binding and now sign-inverted) and HL-4 all apply. Events ahead: TSMC July revenue 11-Aug, US CPI 12-Aug, Applied Materials 13-Aug, FOMC minutes 19-Aug, Korea chip exports 21-Aug - no pre-positioning (L6/HL-6). · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 61.70 | WATCH | 61.70 | 61.70 | n/a | n/a | 35.17 (-43.0%) | No position, none taken. This 2x Samsung Electronics tracker gave back 3.2% to 61.70 in a narrow range, and the defining feature of the session was the absence of participation: 7.85 million shares against 17.06 million yesterday, a 54% collapse and the lightest volume of the week. The model still reads the name as a failed breakdown and has done so for six straight sessions; conviction in that bearish call cooled from, but a cooling bearish conviction is not a bullish signal, and the buy screen only ever considers bullish labels. Structurally yesterday's small improvements reversed: the price is back 4.0% under its 5-day average (was 2.8%) and the 200-day overhang re-widened to 40.4% above the price from 36.3%. The 12-week estimate remains 43% below the close. There is still no usable stop - the model prints stop, entry and close all at the same 61.70 with a market order and a blank target, a zero-width risk band for the eighth consecutive session, which alone defeats a risk-defined entry. What is holding up: the name sits 18.9% above its 30-July low and daily volatility continues to compress to 14.7% of price. Nothing is scheduled to force the issue either - both direct catalysts (SK Hynix Q2 on 29-July, Samsung Q2 on 30-July) printed in late July and the next ten sessions carry no event specific to this name. Backdrop is genuinely improving at the margin: Korea's leveraged-ETF curbs effective 31-July are throttling the forced selling that caused the drawdown, and Morgan Stanley upgraded Korean equities to Overweight on 3-Aug - but that same note pencils a KOSPI range of while the unwind completes, which is not a band to hold a doubled-up tracker through. Re-arm: reclaim the 5-day at 64.29, then the 10-day at 67.96, then the real test, a reclaim-and-hold of the 200-day at 86.61, on a bullish actionable label with a second confirming print and a usable stop. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.