Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 29th session, though today the book's two candidates finally parted company. The 2x Samsung tracker (7747) had its best day since this book opened - up 6.5% to 65.68 on 62% heavier volume, closing above its 5-day average for the first time and cutting the gap to its 200-day average from 40% to 31% - while the 2x SK Hynix tracker (7709) slipped 2.1% to 28.10 and its signal deteriorated from a 20-day breakdown to a 52-week one. Neither is buyable: both still carry bearish labels, and on 7747 the model's confidence in that bearish call actually rose from as the price rose, which the book's own playbook reads as a stronger warning, not a softer one. The one date-verified piece of news today was TSMC's July revenue - up 44.7% year on year and ahead of its raised full-year guide - but that is a foundry datapoint, not a memory-pricing one, and the tape split the pair on exactly that distinction. The practical change is which name to watch: 7747 is now primary (two of five re-arm conditions in play, and no scheduled event in the next ten sessions to force the issue), 7709 secondary. Ninth straight session with an empty buy pool; no holdings, so nothing to sell. Learnings applied: HL-4 (rising conviction on a bearish label is a stronger avoid), HL-3 (7747's stop equals its entry and its close for a ninth session - no risk-defined entry is constructible), HL-2 (a bullish print must be confirmed by a second one; there have been zero), L5/HL-6 (calib_1w null, f=0.30). Valuation blind (NA_ETF); scorecard 0 graded of 73 entries; news overlay 37 days stale, framing only. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 28.10 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 16.02 | No position, and none taken - this 2x SK Hynix tracker got structurally worse on a modest down day. The price fell only 2.1% to 28.10, but the model's read escalated from a 20-day breakdown to a 52-week breakdown, the most severe structural break it prints, and volume shrank 10% into the decline while its sibling's expanded 62% into a rally. Momentum keeps making new lows: RSI 36.03 is the third consecutive window low, the recovery off the 30-July bottom has now given back 80% of its gains, and the cushion above that bottom has narrowed to 6.9%. TSMC's strong July revenue print landed in this session but is a foundry read, not a memory-pricing read, and this name did not participate. Two things still argue the other way and are worth watching: the 27.10 low is still a higher low than the 30-July bottom, so the base is technically unbroken, and volatility keeps compressing - the average daily range is now 29.9% of the price, the first sub-30% reading of the window. Operationally the blocking issue is unchanged and absolute: the model emits a short structure on this row (a sell-stop at 23.12 below the 28.10 close, a stop at 44.37 above it, and a negative price target), so no risk-defined long position can be constructed from it at any conviction level - HL-3 and systemic finding 8. Re-arm needs, in order: reclaim the 5-day average at 30.99 (9.3% above), then the 10-day at 35.41, then a bullish label at conviction 65+ confirmed by a second session, and above all a usable long stop. This ticker is 0-for-2 on oversold bounces holding a second day (20-July, 07-August), so HL-2 requires the confirmation print. Demoted to secondary watch behind 7747. Events ahead - US CPI 12-Aug, Lenovo results 13-Aug, Applied Materials 13-Aug (HK reaction 14-Aug), US PPI and retail sales 14-Aug, FOMC minutes 19-Aug, Korea chip exports 21-Aug - all with impact bands doubled by the 2x structure; no pre-positioning into any of them (L6/HL-6). · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 65.68 | WATCH | 65.68 | 65.68 | n/a | n/a | 37.44 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - but this 2x Samsung Electronics tracker had the strongest session of its short history and is now the book's primary watch name. It rose 6.5% to 65.68 on 12.7 million shares against 7.8 million yesterday, a 62% expansion in participation into an up-day, and it closed above its 5-day average for the first time since the book opened. The repairs underneath are real: the gap to the 10-day average collapsed from 9.2% to 2.7%, the overhang to the 200-day average narrowed from 40% to 31% in a single session - the biggest one-day improvement since inception - momentum was the only pillar to move and it moved up, and the recovery off the 30-July low has now given back only 24% of its gains versus 46% yesterday. What still blocks a purchase is the label and the stop. The model continues to read the name as a failed breakdown for the ninth straight session, and its confidence in that bearish call rose from with the internal rating hardening from hold to sell - as the price rose. The playbook is explicit that a strengthening bearish conviction paired with a 12-week view sitting 43% below the current price is a stronger reason to stay out, not a softer one (HL-4), and the buy screen only ever considers bullish labels. Separately the model prints its stop, its entry and the close at the identical 65.68 with no price target at all - a zero-width risk band for the ninth consecutive session, which by itself defeats a risk-defined entry regardless of everything above (HL-3, systemic finding 8). Re-arm scorecard: reclaim the 5-day average - DONE; reclaim the 10-day at 67.54 - within 2.7%; reclaim and hold the 200-day at 86.40 - still 31% away; a bullish label confirmed by a second session - not yet; a usable stop - not yet. Two of five conditions are in play, the most this book has ever had. Helpfully, no scheduled event touches this name in the next ten trading sessions, so it can build a base without a catalyst forcing the issue; no gap-chasing (L6/HL-6). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.