Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 30th session, and today that meant declining the single biggest up-day either tracker has printed since this book opened: the 2x Samsung ETF (7747) rose 13.9% to 74.84 and the 2x SK Hynix ETF (7709) rose 12.2% to 31.52. The move is attributable, and what it is attributable to is precisely why it was declined - both Korean underlyings jumped about 8% on an unconfirmed local-media report that Singapore's Temasek intends to invest directly in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. A single-source report of an intention, with no company or Temasek confirmation on the record, is the thinnest possible basis on which to buy a doubled-up instrument, and this book's playbook requires a second confirming session before acting on a one-bar pop. Neither name is buyable in any case: both still carry bearish labels, and the model's own instruction on each row reads 'do not open (long-only)'. On 7709 the model's confidence in that bearish call jumped from - a record for this book - as the price rose 12%, which the playbook reads as a stronger warning, not a softer one. The tape itself split on quality: 7747 opened at its low, never traded below it and finished 5% above the session's volume-weighted average price, a clean trend-day; 7709 ran to 33.00, gave back 4.5% into the close on the heaviest volume of the window and finished 26% below its volume-weighted average - a high-volume failure at the high on the best headline it is likely to get. Separately, both rows now print stop, entry and close at the identical number with no price target, so no position could be sized against a defined risk even if the label turned. US July CPI lands tonight after the Hong Kong close. Tenth straight session with an empty buy pool; no holdings, so nothing to sell. Learnings applied: HL-4 (rising conviction on a bearish label is a stronger avoid), HL-3 (zero-width risk band, now on both names for the first time), HL-2/L6 (no second confirming print, no gap-chase into a macro print), L5/HL-6 (calib_1w null, f=0.30). Valuation blind (NA_ETF); scorecard 0 graded of 76 entries; news overlay 38 days stale, framing only. |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 74.84 | WATCH | 74.84 | 74.84 | n/a | n/a | 42.66 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - but this 2x Samsung Electronics tracker printed the best bar in the book's short history and remains the primary watch name. It rose 13.9% to 74.84, opened at 71.30 which was also the session low, never traded below that open, closed 3.1% off its high and finished 5.05% above the session's volume-weighted average price - a textbook trend-day shape. Volume rose a modest 14% to 14.5 million shares, so this was a continuation of yesterday's base-building rather than a crowd arriving on a headline. The structural repair is now substantial: it reclaimed its 10-day average for the first time ever and sits 8.1% above it, the gap to the 20-day average collapsed from 16.4% to 5.8%, and the 200-day overhang narrowed from 31.5% to 15.6% - a second consecutive record single-session improvement. Two of five re-arm conditions are now done rather than merely in play, the furthest this book has ever advanced. What still blocks a purchase is unchanged. The model has read the name as a failed breakdown for a tenth straight session with an internal sell rating, and its confidence in that bearish call did not move at all through a 13.9% rally, sitting at 73 - and the buy screen only ever considers bullish labels. For the tenth consecutive session it also prints its stop, its entry and the close at the identical 74.84 with no price target at all, a zero-width risk band that by itself defeats a risk-defined entry on a doubled-up instrument. Two cautions inside the good bar: daily volatility expanded from 12.8% to 13.8% of price, and the trend and volatility pillars both fell, on an up-day. The 12-week estimate remains 43% below the close, a ratio now pinned for 23 sessions and treated as a model artifact rather than a forecast. Helpfully, no scheduled event touches this name in the next ten trading sessions, so it can keep building a base without a catalyst forcing the issue. Re-arm, in order: reclaim the 20-day at 79.46, then the real test, a reclaim-and-hold of the 200-day at 86.49, on a bullish label with a second confirming print and above all a usable stop. No gap-chase (L6/HL-6). · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 31.52 | WATCH | 31.52 | 31.52 | n/a | n/a | 17.97 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - this 2x SK Hynix tracker rose 12.2% to 31.52 on the Temasek report and still failed the book's tests on every count. Two structural defects did clear: the signal de-escalated from a 52-week breakdown back to a 20-day failed breakdown, and with it the nonsensical short structure the model had been emitting on this row (a sell-stop below the close, a stop above it, and a negative price target) disappeared - the row is a plain market order again. But repaired to unusable is still unusable: stop, entry and close now all print at the identical 31.52 with a blank target, a zero-width risk band on a doubled-up instrument. More important, the model's confidence in its bearish call jumped from - the largest single-session conviction move this book has recorded, and a book high - while the price rose 12%, which the playbook treats as a materially stronger reason to stay out. The bar itself was poor despite the headline number: the name ran to 33.00 and gave back 4.5% into the close on 250.8 million shares, the heaviest volume of the entire window, finishing 26.1% below the session's volume-weighted average price. A high-volume reversal off the high, on the most favourable news this name is likely to get, is distribution into a headline. It did not reclaim its 5-day average even on a 12% day, closing 1.9% below it - the nearest of the window, but still a miss - and the trend pillar fell from. Constructive at the margin: daily volatility compressed to 28.2% of price, a second consecutive sub-30% reading, and the name holds 24.3% above its 30-July low. The re-arm ladder stands at zero of five. This ticker is 0-for-2 on oversold bounces holding a second day (20-July, 07-August), so a second confirming session is mandatory before it can be considered. Events ahead, all with impact bands doubled by the 2x structure and none to be pre-positioned into: US July CPI tonight after the Hong Kong close, Lenovo results 13-Aug, Applied Materials 13-Aug with the Hong Kong reaction 14-Aug, US PPI and retail sales 14-Aug, FOMC minutes 19-Aug, Korea 1-20 August chip exports 21-Aug. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.