Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 31st session. Both leveraged trackers extended the Temasek-driven rally - the 2x Samsung ETF (7747) rose 6.3% to 79.58 and the 2x SK Hynix ETF (7709) rose 6.5% to 33.58 - and neither is buyable, because both still carry bearish labels and the model's own instruction on each row reads 'do not open (long-only)'. Today's leg was a broad macro bounce rather than a company thesis: in-line US July CPI pushed out September rate-hike odds and Seoul's Kospi closed up 3.6%, helped by bargain-buying and Korean measures to steady retail investors - while Hong Kong itself closed slightly lower, Hang Seng -0.2% at 25,396.51. The underlying report that started the move, that Singapore's Temasek plans to invest directly in Samsung and SK Hynix, is now two days old and Temasek still has not commented on it, having separately noted it first invested in both more than two years ago. Most importantly, the tape faded all day: 7709 closed exactly on its session low after giving back 6.8% from the open - its second consecutive failure at the high - and 7747 closed a quarter of a percent off its low on 21% lower volume, inverting yesterday's strong shape. Buying the open and selling the close on falling volume is a pop being distributed, not a base being built. The Korean index is up about 20% from its 6 August trough but still 40% below its June high - a counter-trend rally inside a bear market is the single worst regime for a doubled-up instrument. Underneath all of that sits the mechanical blocker: for an eleventh straight session the model prints entry, stop and close at the identical number with no price target, so any position would carry no defined risk at all. Nothing queued into tomorrow's Lenovo and Applied Materials results either (L6/HL-6). Structural repair is genuine and is why 7747 stays the primary watch name - it has now reclaimed its 5-, 10- and 20-day averages, three of five re-arm conditions - but this book buys a bullish signal with a usable stop, and neither exists yet. |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 79.58 | WATCH | 79.58 | 79.58 | n/a | n/a | 45.36 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - but this 2x Samsung Electronics tracker made its furthest structural progress yet and remains the primary watch name. It rose 6.3% to 79.58 and reclaimed its 20-day average (78.68) for the first time in this book's history, having already reclaimed the 5- and 10-day averages; the long-term 200-day overhang narrowed from 13.5% to 7.8%, volatility compressed for a second session, and momentum readings hit a window high. Three of five re-arm conditions are now met. Against that, the day's bar was the mirror image of yesterday's: it opened at 81.28, peaked at 82.96 early, and closed at 79.58 - barely a quarter of a percent above the session low - on 21% lower volume. Yesterday's encouraging trend-day shape did not repeat, and a second day of a headline rally that closes near its low on lighter volume reads as distribution rather than accumulation. The two conditions that actually authorise a purchase remain unmet and have never moved: the model has read this name as a bearish failed breakout for an eleventh consecutive session, and for an eleventh consecutive session it prints entry, stop and close at the identical 79.58 with a blank price target - a zero-width risk band, which on a doubled-up instrument means a position with no defined downside at all. The 12-week projection sits 43% below the close, but that figure has been pinned at exactly the same ratio for 24 sessions and is treated as a model artifact, not a forecast. Helpfully, this name carries no company-specific event in the next ten trading days, which is a good property for base-building. Watching for a bullish label with a usable stop; not chasing the two-day gap. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 33.58 | WATCH | 33.58 | 33.58 | n/a | n/a | 19.14 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - this 2x SK Hynix tracker rose 6.5% to 33.58 and made its first genuine progress toward a future entry, reclaiming its 5-day average for the first time after failing to do so even on yesterday's 12% surge, with the 10-day average now only 4.3% away and volatility compressing for a third consecutive session. That is one of five re-arm conditions met, up from none. Everything else argues the other way, and the intraday tape most of all: the name opened at 36.02, touched 36.10, and then fell all day to close at exactly 33.58 - the session low - a 6.8% fade from the open and its second consecutive failure at the high on the most favourable news flow it is likely to get. The driver was macro, not company-specific: in-line US inflation data pushed out September rate-hike expectations and lifted the whole Korean market 3.6%, while the original Temasek investment report remains uncommented on by Temasek two days later. The model still reads the name as a bearish failed breakdown with high confidence and prints entry, stop and close all at 33.58 with a blank price target, leaving no defined risk for a long position on an instrument that doubles every move. This name also sits under a dense event calendar - Lenovo and Applied Materials results tonight, US producer prices and retail sales tomorrow, Fed minutes next week, Korean chip export data on the 21st - each with doubled impact here, and this book does not pre-position into events. Its long-term trend gauge remains unavailable due to short listing history, so the key structural test cannot even be evaluated. Secondary watch behind 7747. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.