Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 32nd session. Both leveraged trackers extended the Seoul-led chip rally into a third day - the 2x Samsung ETF (7747) rose 7.4% to 85.46 and the 2x SK Hynix ETF (7709) rose 10.0% to 36.94, now up roughly 30% each in three sessions - and neither is buyable. Both still carry bearish labels, and the model's own instruction on each row reads 'do not open (long-only)'. The important change today is that 7747, the primary watch name, saw the model's confidence in it fall sharply from, taking it below the 65 threshold this book requires to buy anything: until today only two things blocked it, now there are three. That confidence drop happened on its best trading day yet, which is the tension worth recording - the name closed within 0.14% of its session high, is now just 0.94% below its 200-day average after being 7.8% below it two days ago, held its 20-day average for a second close, and has compressed its volatility for a third session. Structurally it is one good session from complete; the model has simultaneously become less sure of it. The 7709 move was less convincing than the headline: the entire 10% gain was the opening gap, and the name went nowhere for the whole Hong Kong session, closing just 0.16% above where it opened - a Seoul repricing at the bell rather than genuine demand in this listing. The driver again was macro rather than company-specific: Korea's Kospi closed up 3.9% on better-than-expected AI earnings and softer US inflation, Japan rose 1.6%, and Australia actually fell - while Hong Kong itself was flat, up 0.1%. The Temasek investment report that started the move is now three days old and Temasek still has not commented on it. The underlying Korean chipmakers do look genuinely cheap at 4.2 and 3.6 times forward earnings against more than 21 times for the global chip index - but a cheap underlying is not an argument for a daily-reset doubled-up tracker, whose returns are eroded by volatility rather than driven by the multiple. Underneath everything sits the mechanical blocker: for a twelfth straight session the model prints entry, stop and close at the identical number with no price target, so any position would carry no defined downside at all. Nothing is queued into next week's US producer-price and retail-sales reaction, the Fed minutes, or the Korean chip export data (L6/HL-6). |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 85.46 | WATCH | 85.46 | 85.46 | n/a | n/a | 48.71 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - but this 2x Samsung Electronics tracker had the most interesting session in the book's history, in both directions at once. It rose 7.4% to 85.46 and printed a genuine trend-day bar: it opened at 81.54, ground higher all session, and closed at 85.46, within 0.14% of its high, on essentially unchanged volume - the exact opposite of yesterday's fade, and the shape that distinguishes accumulation from a headline pop. Structurally it is now the closest it has ever been to a complete base: its 200-day average, the last remaining long-term hurdle, sits at 86.28 and the close is just 0.94% below it, having been 7.8% below only two days ago. It held its 20-day average for a second consecutive close, its volatility compressed for a third session to the tightest reading of the window, and its momentum gauge reached the neutral 50 line. It also carries no company-specific event in the next ten trading days, which is a helpful property for base-building. Against all of that, the model's confidence in the name fell sharply from - its lowest in a week, on its best day - which places it below the 65 threshold this book requires before buying anything. Until today only two conditions blocked a purchase: the bearish label and the missing risk line. Now the confidence floor blocks it too, so the entry case moved backwards even as the chart improved. And the risk line has still never appeared: for a twelfth consecutive session the model prints entry, stop and close at the identical 85.46 with a blank price target, meaning a position on a doubled-up instrument would carry no defined downside at all. The name is also 23% above its multi-day average price and up 30% in three sessions, so this is not a level to chase. The 12-week projection sits 43% below the close, but that figure has been pinned at exactly the same ratio for 25 sessions and is treated as a model artifact, not a forecast. Remains the primary watch name; waiting on a bullish label with a usable stop. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 36.94 | WATCH | 36.94 | 36.94 | n/a | n/a | 21.06 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - this 2x SK Hynix tracker rose 10.0% to 36.94 and cleared its second re-arm condition, reclaiming its 10-day average by 5.2% after reclaiming the 5-day yesterday, with volatility compressing for a fourth consecutive session to below 20% of the share price for the first time in the window. That is two of five conditions met, up from one. But the headline gain overstates what happened: the entire move was the opening gap. The name opened at 36.88 and closed at 36.94, going essentially nowhere across the whole Hong Kong session - a repricing to Seoul's overnight move at the bell rather than demand in this listing, especially notable on 15% lower volume and with the Hang Seng itself flat. The next structural hurdle is also a long way off: its 20-day average sits at 45.18, some 18% above the close, which on a name whose daily range averages 20% of its price is roughly a full standard move, and this ticker has twice failed to hold an oversold bounce into a second session. The model still reads it as a bearish failed breakdown with high confidence and prints entry, stop and close all at 36.94 with a blank price target - a third consecutive session with no defined risk for a long position on an instrument that doubles every move. Its long-term trend gauge remains unavailable due to short listing history, so the key structural test cannot even be evaluated. The name also sits under a dense event calendar with doubled impact - US producer prices and retail sales plus China activity data hitting Monday's session, Fed minutes next Wednesday, and Korean chip export data on the 21st - and this book does not pre-position into events. Secondary watch behind 7747. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.