Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 33rd session. Both leveraged trackers extended the Korea-led chip rally into a fourth day - the 2x Samsung ETF (7747) rose 5.3% to 89.98 and the 2x SK Hynix ETF (7709) rose 10.5% to 40.80, now up 37% and 45% in four sessions - and neither is buyable. Two things changed today, and they point in opposite directions. First, 7747 finally reclaimed its 200-day average, the last long-term hurdle it had been working toward for weeks: at 89.98 against 86.25 it now trades above every moving average the model tracks, for the first time in this book's history. Its chart, in other words, is done. Second, the model's confidence in the OTHER name collapsed - 7709 fell from on a 10% up day - so for the first time both names now sit below the 65 confidence threshold this book requires before buying anything. The entire investable universe is blocked on model confidence, not on the chart. Both rows still carry bearish labels with the engine's own instruction reading 'do not open (long-only)', and for a thirteenth straight session the model prints entry, stop and close at the identical number with no price target - meaning any position on a doubled-up instrument would carry no defined downside at all. Two further facts argue for patience rather than urgency. Participation is thinning exactly as 7747's base completes: its gain halved, volume fell 27% to the lightest of the window, and it traded below the prior close intraday for the first time in the run. And the event calendar has just put NVIDIA's quarterly results in front of both names on 27 August with a plus-or-minus 14% impact band, doubled on a 2x vehicle - which retires the standing note that 7747 was event-free. The news backdrop improved in quality but not in relevance: Korea's rally is now underpinned by SanDisk's long-range margin guidance and SK Group's warning of tighter memory supply into 2027, rather than the Temasek investment rumour that started it - a rumour Temasek has since effectively walked back, saying it did not seek Korean government advice on timing and first invested more than two years ago. Meanwhile today's actual Hong Kong session macro was poor: China's July industrial output, retail sales and investment all missed forecasts. These Korea-linked trackers rose through it, which is correct on the fundamentals but a reminder the listing venue is not the driver. Nothing queued into any event (L6/HL-6). |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 89.98 | WATCH | 89.98 | 89.98 | n/a | n/a | 51.29 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - but this 2x Samsung Electronics tracker completed its base today and the case for owning it has never been stronger, nor more clearly blocked. It rose 5.3% to 89.98 and cleared its 200-day average at 86.25, closing 4.3% above it after sitting 0.9% below on Friday. That was the last structural hurdle: the name now trades above its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day and 200-day averages simultaneously, the first time in this book's history. It held its 20-day for a third consecutive close, compressed its volatility for a fourth session to the tightest reading of the window (its average daily range is now 9% of the share price, down from 13%), and its momentum gauge pushed above the neutral 50 line for the first time. It sits 73% above its 30 July low. Against that, nothing the model uses to authorise a purchase has moved. It still reads the name as a bearish failed breakdown for a thirteenth session, its confidence in that read is 57 - below the 65 threshold this book buys on - and for a thirteenth consecutive session it prints entry, stop and close at the identical 89.98 with a blank price target, so a position on an instrument that doubles every move would carry no defined downside whatsoever. Today's bar also softened relative to Friday's: the gain halved, volume fell 27% to the lightest of the window, and the low traded 1.2% below Friday's close - the run's first intraday give-back. Participation is thinning exactly as the chart completes. The name is 30% above its rolling average price and up 37% in four sessions, so this is not a level to chase. And the standing note that this ticker was event-free is now retired: the refreshed calendar puts Korean chip export data on 21 August and NVIDIA's quarterly results on 27 August in front of it, the latter at a plus-or-minus 14% band before the 2x multiplier. The 12-week projection sits 43% below the close but has been pinned at exactly the same ratio for 26 sessions and is treated as a model artifact, not a forecast. Remains the primary watch name; waiting on a bullish label at conviction 65+ with a usable stop - the chart's work is done. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 40.80 | WATCH | 40.80 | 40.80 | n/a | n/a | 23.26 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - this 2x SK Hynix tracker posted the best trading session of the entire rally and the model responded by cutting its confidence sharply. It rose 10.5% to 40.80, and unlike Friday the gain was earned rather than gapped: it opened just 2.9% higher and then added 7.3% during Hong Kong hours, closing near the top of its range. That is the first time in this rally that the Hong Kong listing itself, rather than Seoul's opening bell, did the work - and it directly reverses the criticism recorded against this name on Friday. Its 5-day average has now crossed above its 10-day, the first bullish short-term crossover of the window, and the gap to its 20-day average narrowed from 18% to under 7%, turning the next hurdle from roughly a full standard move into about half of one. Volatility compressed for a fifth consecutive session, the most persistent improvement in the book. But the model's confidence collapsed from on that same up day, dropping it below the 65 threshold required to buy - mirroring precisely what happened to the other tracker on Friday - and its trend gauge actually fell to the window's low while price rose 10%. Volume was 40% lighter. The name still reads as a bearish failed breakdown, and prints entry, stop and close all at 40.80 with a blank price target: a fourth consecutive session with no defined risk for a long position on an instrument that doubles every move. Its long-term trend gauge remains unavailable due to short listing history, so the very test the other tracker just passed cannot even be evaluated here. It is up 45% in four sessions and sits under the densest event calendar in the book - Fed minutes on the 20th, Korean chip exports and US options expiry on the 21st, then NVIDIA's results and the US inflation gauge landing together on the 27th, and Jackson Hole on the 28th - seven exposures, every impact band doubled by the leverage. This book does not pre-position into events. Secondary watch behind 7747. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.