Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Stay 100% in cash (HK) for a 34th session, and today the tape settled the argument. Both leveraged trackers gapped higher at the open and then collapsed through the Hong Kong session on double to triple their normal volume: the 2x Samsung ETF (7747) opened at 91.30 - which turned out to be the high of the day - and closed at 80.56, down 10.5%; the 2x SK Hynix ETF (7709) opened 4.2% higher and closed at 36.90, down 9.6%, having fallen 13.2% from its own open. Both finished near the low of the day. Anyone who had bought at yesterday's close is down roughly 10% in one session. The structural case that looked complete yesterday is already gone: 7747 had reclaimed its 200-day average for the first time in this book's history and lost it again after exactly one close, and 7709 gave back all three of the improvements recorded yesterday - its short-term moving-average crossover, its approach to the 20-day, and five sessions of narrowing volatility. The Hang Seng itself closed flat (+0.15%), so this was a Korean repricing arriving through a Hong Kong wrapper, not a local event. Neither name is buyable: both still carry bearish labels with the engine instructing 'do not open (long-only)', the model's confidence in 7747 fell to a window low, its confidence in 7709 actually rose - but in the sell direction - and for a fourteenth straight session the model prints entry, stop and close at the identical number with no price target, so any position would carry no defined downside on an instrument that doubles every move. Operational: NO ACTION both sides; buy pool empty by construction for a 14th session; HL-2 unsatisfiable (zero bullish prints), HL-3 binds on both (14th/5th zero-width band), HL-4 fires on 7709 (conviction with bracket [HOLD]->[SELL] on a -9.6% day = high confidence in a DOWN move); L6/HL-6 no pre-positioning into Korea chip exports 08-21, options expiry 08-21 or NVIDIA Q2 08-26/HK-27 (+/-14%, doubled). Declined-print marks now negative on five of six. No order queued; nothing pending at the next open. |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 80.56 | WATCH | 80.56 | 80.56 | n/a | n/a | 45.92 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - and the base this tracker completed yesterday was destroyed in a single session. It opened at 91.30, which was the highest price it traded all day, and closed at 80.56, down 10.5% on the session and 11.8% from that open, finishing in the bottom tenth of the day's range on more than double the previous day's volume - the heaviest of the window, one session after the lightest. Yesterday's entry recorded that it had reclaimed its 200-day average at 86.25 and was trading above every moving average the model tracks for the first time in this book's history; today it sits 6.5% below that 200-day line, holds its 20-day by a bare 1.7% (from 12.4%), has dropped back below the neutral momentum line, and its average daily range has widened from 9% to 11% of the share price, breaking four straight sessions of calming down. That matters more than usual here: a fund that doubles the daily move of its underlying loses value to volatility itself, so an expansion is a direct cost of holding. The model's confidence fell to 53, the lowest reading of the window and further below the 65 threshold this book requires. It gave back nearly 40% of its entire four-day advance today and still sits 16% above its rolling average price. Operational: 14th consecutive session of Stop == Entry == Close 80.56 with a blank Target_Price (HL-3, finding 8) - no risk-defined entry is possible regardless of the chart; HL-2 unsatisfiable (zero bullish prints in the window). Re-arm ladder now reads (1) EMA5 77.82 held +3.5%, (2) EMA10 74.77 held +7.8%, (3) EMA20 79.18 held by only +1.7%, (3b) EMA200 86.15 LOST at -6.5%, (4) bullish label + 2nd print NOT MET at cv53, (5) usable stop NOT MET. Trend pillar to a window low of 36. Events: Korea chip exports 08-21 (+/-6%), options expiry 08-21, NVIDIA Q2 08-26/HK-27 (+/-14%) - all bands doubled; nothing pre-positioned (L6/HL-6). Declined prints now 07-14 @95.30 -15.5% and 07-27 @83.42 -3.4%, both flipped negative from roughly break-even yesterday. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 36.90 | WATCH | 36.90 | 36.90 | n/a | n/a | 21.03 (-43.0%) | No position, and none taken - this 2x SK Hynix tracker unwound every improvement recorded yesterday, and the model's confidence rose while it did so, which here argues against buying rather than for it. It opened 4.2% higher at 42.50, traded up to 43.16, and then sold off for the rest of the Hong Kong session to close at 36.90 - down 9.6% on the day, down 13.2% from its own open, and finishing within 4% of the low - on volume 2.6 times the previous session. Yesterday this listing was credited with the first genuine Hong Kong bid of the rally; today the same session distributed it. All three of yesterday's constructive points reversed: its 5-day average has crossed back below its 10-day, the gap to its 20-day average re-widened from under 7% to 15% - wider than two sessions ago - and five consecutive sessions of narrowing volatility broke, with the average daily range widening to 17.5% of the share price, the largest of the window. It also closed 5.3% below its rolling average price after trading above it yesterday. The model's confidence rose from, back above this book's 65 threshold, but on a bearish failed-breakdown label - which means higher confidence in a fall, not permission to buy. Operational: HL-4 fires exactly as written (rising conviction on a breakdown family with a collapsing forward view is a STRONGER avoid); the Signal_Rationale bracket flipped [HOLD] -> [SELL], finding 13's fourth boundary crossing and the first upward one; 5th consecutive session of Stop == Entry == Close 36.90 with a blank Target_Price (HL-3, finding 8); HL-2 unsatisfiable. Ladder: (1) EMA5 34.72 held +6.3%, (2) EMA10 35.30 held +4.5% but the 5/10 crossover UNWOUND, (3) EMA20 43.42 now -15.0% away, (4) 2nd bullish print zero, (5) no usable stop. EMA200 blank all window (finding 6). Now 0-for-2 on oversold flips holding a second session and 0-for-1 on HK-session bids holding a second session. Seven event exposures 08-19 to 08-28 including NVIDIA Q2 at a doubled +/-14%; no pre-positioning (L6/HL-6). Declined prints 07-14 @65.20 -43.4%, 07-20 @52.58 -29.8%, 07-27 @54.50 -32.3%, 08-07 @31.06 +18.8%. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.