Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Book stays 100% cash at HKfor a 39th session. Today delivered the first genuinely two-sided improvement since the flush - conviction rebounded off the book-window low (7709, 7747, the v3 bracket turned [EXIT] back to [HOLD] on both, the momentum pillar gained 11 points on each, and ATR compressed ~16% on both names, which on a daily-reset 2x vehicle is the mechanical precondition for decay drag to stop eating an entry. None of it is a buy case: both trackers still print the bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D (7747's 18th observed print, 7709's 9th), conviction sits 15 and 18 points under the 65 floor, the 12-week projection is 43% below the close on both, and the model still prints Stop == Entry == Close with a blank target, so no risk-defined entry exists at any conviction. The recovery also arrived on falling volume for a fifth straight session - 7747's 8.19M is the thinnest bar of the whole window - which reads as sellers exhausted rather than buyers arriving. Newly sourced and dated news confirms rather than changes the picture: Samsung's record 90-110trn won payout landed badly on 24 Aug (-8.7% vs SK Hynix -3.4%) because the buyback structure was deferred to January, which doubled through these 2x vehicles into yesterday's collapse. Operational: HL-2 governs and all four re-arm gates fail; HL-3 binds on both; L1 filter clean but supplies no trigger; valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, quality gate off); scorecard 0 graded of 100, calib_1w null so f=0.30 per L5/HL-6. NO pre-positioning into tonight's NVIDIA Q2 print (HK reaction 27 Aug, horizon band ~+/-14% raw on 7709), tonight's US July PCE, Warsh's 28 Aug Jackson Hole debut, or the 1 Sep Korea chip-export line - L6/HL-6, bands doubled on a 2x vehicle. Finding 16 (suspected 7747 price restatement) is CLOSED as unsubstantiated on the first clean consecutive-session EMA continuity check. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 37.50 | WATCH | 37.50 | 37.50 | n/a | n/a | 21.38 (-43.0%) | Closer to buyable than yesterday and still a long way from it. The 2x SK Hynix tracker closed 37.50, up 0.70%, reclaiming its 5-day average after one session below and holding the 10-day, while its volatility compressed sharply - ATR 5.60 to 4.70, a 16% fall that takes ATR down to 12.5% of price from 15.0%. Conviction rebounded and the engine's bracket moved from EXIT back to HOLD. But the label is still the bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D for a ninth observed print, conviction is 15 points under the 65 floor, and the 12-week projection of 21.38 sits 43% below the close - the gate that has to close before this is ownable. The bounce also came on 138.2M shares, down 14%, and only 19.9% up the daily range from a lower close than its own open: no buyer stepped up. Dated news confirms the backdrop - SK Hynix fell only 3.4% in Monday's Korean selloff against Samsung's 8.7% because its 40trn won buyback cancels every share repurchased, which is consistent with this tracker now scoring above its Samsung sibling. Operational: HL-2 all four re-arm gates fail (no bullish label, no confirming print, T12 43% below close, no usable stop). HL-3 binds - Stop == Entry == Close 37.50, Target_Price blank, Order_Type Market, Exit_Strategy immediate, a 9th observed zero-width risk band. Pillars trend 40 flat, momentum, volatility; regime Ranging, consensus Consolidation_Bearish. Still -8.44% below EMA20 40.96 (narrowed from -9.99%), -35.85% below EMA50, -40.54% below EMA100; no EMA200 prints. L1 clean at VWAP +3.47% but that is a filter not a trigger. RE-ARM: bullish actionable label + second confirming print + T12 >= close + usable stop. NO pre-positioning into tonight's NVIDIA print - the Event Horizon names 7709 the widest raw mover in that cluster at ~+/-14%, roughly double in vehicle terms (L6/HL-6). · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 74.16 | WATCH | 74.16 | 74.16 | n/a | n/a | 42.27 (-43.0%) | A quiet bounce on the thinnest volume of the window - the weakest kind of recovery this book recognises. The 2x Samsung tracker closed 74.16, up 2.57%, but on just 8.19M shares, down 37% and the lowest print of the entire window, and it remains below every moving average that matters: 4.5% under both the 5- and 10-day, 6.5% under the 20-day and 13.6% under the 200-day it round-tripped three times this month. The one real positive is volatility: ATR fell 11.52 to 9.70, giving back yesterday's entire re-expansion and taking ATR/price to 13.1% from 15.9% - which matters on a daily-reset 2x vehicle where wide ranges are a direct cost. Conviction recovered and the bracket moved EXIT back to HOLD, but 47 is 18 points under the floor, the label is the bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D for an eighteenth observed print, and the 12-week projection of 42.27 sits 43% below the close. Now-dated news explains yesterday's collapse: Samsung's record 90-110trn won payout was sold hard on 24 Aug (-8.7%, versus SK Hynix -3.4%) because the buyback and cancellation specifics were deferred to a January 2027 board meeting - an underlying split that doubles through this vehicle. It confirms the technical read; it originates nothing. Operational: HL-2 all four re-arm gates fail. HL-3 binds - Stop == Entry == Close 74.16, Target_Price blank, Order_Type Market, Exit_Strategy immediate, an 18th observed zero-width risk band. Pillars trend 36 flat, momentum, volatility pinned at 18; regime Ranging. FINDING 16 CLOSED: the first clean consecutive-session check shows EMA200 85.92->85.81, EMA100 100.97->100.45, EMA50 96.36->95.51 - smooth monotone decay, no restatement; the earlier anomaly was a data-gap artifact. Declined-print mark 07-27 @83.42 remains negative at -11.1%. RE-ARM: bullish actionable label + second confirming print + T12 >= close + usable stop. NO pre-positioning into tonight's NVIDIA print (HK reaction 27 Aug, band +/-12% raw), US July PCE, or the 28 Aug Jackson Hole keynote - L6/HL-6, bands doubled on a 2x vehicle. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.