Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Book stays 100% cash at HKfor a 38th session. Two sessions after a violent recovery bar, the recovery itself has been retraced: 7747 -18.2% to 72.30 and back below every moving average it had just reclaimed including the 200-day, and 7709 -6.1% to 37.24 and back below its 5-day. Conviction collapsed 21 points on both names to a converged 39 - a new low for this book's window and 26 points under the buy floor - while the engine's bracket turned from HOLD to EXIT on both. Nothing here is buyable and there is nothing held to sell. OPERATIONAL: HL-2 re-arm bar unchanged and failing on all four gates (bullish actionable label; a second confirming print; Target_12Week >= close, currently ~43% below; a usable non-degenerate stop). HL-3 binds - stop == entry == close on both, Target_Price blank. HL-4 - the acquire floor screens bullish labels only. The L1 chase flag CLEARED (VWAP premium 7709 +6.98% -> +2.42%, 7747 +28.76% -> +6.17%) but was cleared by an 18% decline, not a constructive consolidation - VWAP proximity is a filter, never a trigger. L6/HL-6: explicitly no pre-positioning into the 26 Aug NVIDIA print (HK reaction 27 Aug, horizon band +/-12%, 7709 flagged the widest raw mover at ~+/-14%), 26 Aug US PCE, or Warsh's 28 Aug Jackson Hole debut. Valuation blind (NA_ETF), scorecard 0 graded of 97, calib_1w null so f=0.30 (L5/HL-6). DATA GAP: no 08-24 snapshot - the second missing EOD in four sessions (systemic finding 17, escalated to a scheduler-level ticket). |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 37.24 | WATCH | 37.24 | 37.24 | n/a | n/a | 21.23 (-43.0%) | Not buyable, and further from buyable than at any point this month. The 2x SK Hynix tracker gave back 6.1% to 37.24, slipping back below its 5-day average after only two sessions above it, and its conviction score collapsed from - the lowest this book has recorded on the name. The signal is still the bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D (8th observed print) and the engine's own bracket moved from HOLD to EXIT. The model's 12-week view sits 43% below today's close, so there is no forward case to buy into. OPERATIONAL: HL-4 - the acquire floor screens bullish actionable labels only, and the row reads 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=39); do not open (long-only)'; conviction is 26 points under the 65 floor. HL-2 re-arm bar (bullish label + 2nd confirming print + T12 >= close + usable stop) fails on all four. HL-3 binds for an 8th observed print: Stop == Entry == Close 37.24, Target_Price blank, Order_Type Market, Exit_Strategy immediate - a zero-width risk band is not a risk-defined entry at any conviction. Momentum pillar, volatility and now labelled Bearish; trend flat at 40. CONSTRUCTIVE BUT INSUFFICIENT: closed 83.7% up its daily range (+13.2% off the 32.90 open) and ATR compressed 6.13 -> 5.60; but volume fell 21.2% into that bounce, it is the 4th such intraday recovery of the window, and the pair is 0-for-3 on oversold flips holding a second session - HL-2 exists precisely to decline this bar. L1 flag cleared: VWAP premium +6.98% -> +2.42%, but cleared by decline, not consolidation. Still -10.0% below EMA20 41.37 and -37.2% below EMA50 59.34. No pre-positioning into the 26 Aug NVIDIA print - the Event Horizon names 7709 the widest raw mover in that cluster at roughly +/-14%. |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 72.30 | WATCH | 72.30 | 72.30 | n/a | n/a | 41.21 (-43.0%) | Two sessions ago this was the strongest tape in the book and was still declined as unconfirmed; that call has now been paid out. The 2x Samsung tracker fell 18.2% to 72.30 and has given back the entire moving-average ladder it rebuilt in a single session - including the 200-day line, its third round-trip through that level in six observed sessions. Conviction collapsed, a new low for the book, and the engine's bracket turned from HOLD to EXIT. Volatility re-expanded to the widest of the window, which on a daily-reset leveraged fund is a direct increase in decay drag. Nothing to buy, nothing held to sell. OPERATIONAL: below EMA5 79.19 (-8.70%), EMA10 78.29 (-7.65%), EMA20 79.84 (-9.45%), EMA200 85.92 (-15.85%, from +2.64%), EMA50 -24.97%, EMA100 -28.39%. 17th observed FailedBreakout_Down_20D print and 17th observed zero-width risk band (Stop == Entry == Close 72.30, Target_Price blank) - HL-3 binds. HL-2: Target_12Week 41.21 is 43.0% below close, so the T12 >= close gate fails outright; no bullish label, no confirming print; conviction 26 under the floor (HL-4). Trend pillar, momentum, volatility pinned at 18 and labelled Bearish. ATR/close 12.11% -> 15.93%, so the 08-21 compression was a one-bar artifact of the bounce. Closed 83.3% up its range on volume -19.0% - an unbought recovery. L1 flag cleared (VWAP premium +28.76% -> +6.17%) but only via the decline itself. Declined-print mark 07-27 @83.42 has flipped back negative at -13.3%. No pre-positioning into the 26 Aug NVIDIA print or the 28 Aug Jackson Hole keynote (L6/HL-6) - event bands are doubled on a 2x vehicle. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.