Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 34.42 | WATCH | 34.42 | 34.42 | n/a | n/a | 19.62 (-43.0%) | The 2x SK Hynix ETF fell 7.2% to 34.42 and the engine still rates it AVOID on a FailedBreakout_Down_20D breakdown signal, so there is nothing to buy and nothing held to sell. The 12-week forward view of 19.62 sits 43% below the current price, which means the model expects further downside rather than a recovery, and no fair-value anchor exists to argue otherwise because leveraged ETFs have no financial statements to value. We stay in cash. Operational: AVOID never enters the acquire pool at any conviction; so no sell can originate. Three ACTIVE-block vetoes fire independently even if the label flipped - HL-2 falling-knife (T12 43% below close, re-arm needs T12 >= close plus a 2nd confirming bullish print), HL-3 degenerate risk levels (Stop == Entry == Close, blank Target_Price - no risk-defined entry constructible), and HL-4 forward-view-over-conviction (conviction rose while close fell 7.2% and T12 fell 21.14->19.62; rising conviction on a breakdown-family signal is a stronger avoid). Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0); scorecard bias 0 (0 graded, ever); f=0.30 per L5/HL-6. Re-arm trigger: AVOID -> BUY/STRONG BUY with conv >= 65 AND T12 >= close AND a usable stop below entry AND a 2nd confirming bullish print. |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 68.22 | WATCH | 68.22 | 68.22 | n/a | n/a | 38.89 (-43.0%) | The 2x Samsung ETF fell 5.9% to 68.22 and remains AVOID on the same FailedBreakout_Down_20D breakdown signal, so we neither buy it nor own it. Its 12-week forward view of 38.89 is 43% below the current price, and conviction has now rolled over ->50, giving back the only constructive drift this book had - the setup is deteriorating, not building. Valuation cannot help: as a leveraged ETF it has no statements to value. We stay in cash. Operational: AVOID is a disqualification label, not a weak rank; so no sell origination. HL-2 (T12 43% below close), HL-3 (Stop == Entry == Close, blank Target_Price) and HL-4 all veto independently. Sixth consecutive AVOID print. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0); scorecard bias 0; f=0.30. Re-arm trigger identical to 7709: bullish label + conv >= 65 + T12 >= close + usable stop + 2nd confirming print. |
| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. Both instruments in this two-name book - the 2x SK Hynix and 2x Samsung ETFs - fell 6-7% and both remain rated AVOID, so the book stays 100% in cash at HKHolding cash through a session like this was worth roughly HKof avoided drawdown versus being fully. Sixth consecutive zero-action session. Operational: 0 ACQUIRE + 0 DISPOSE. No open GTC queues to reprice or withdraw; no stop breaches; no trades detected. Valuation permanently blind (both rows NA_ETF; regeneration skipped per Step 3). Scorecard 112 entries / 0 graded / calib_1w None -> f=0.30. Overlay stale 59d (down-weighted); Event Horizon fresh via hk parent fallback, all stances position-management with zero positions. Watch 03-Sep Broadcom Q3 as the nearest read-through to Korean memory beta. Step 8a NOT run. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.