Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 33.40 | WATCH | 33.40 | 33.40 | n/a | n/a | 19.04 (-43.0%) | The 2x SK Hynix ETF fell another 3.0% to 33.40 - a third straight down session, now -9.9% over three days - and the engine still rates it AVOID on a FailedBreakout_Down_20D breakdown signal, so there is nothing to buy and nothing held to sell. Today's news confirmed the read rather than contradicting it: the Broadcom-linked AI selloff hit Korean memory for a second consecutive red day, with the memory complex now more than 20% off its highs and in a bear market. No fair-value anchor exists to argue the other side, because leveraged ETFs have no financial statements to value. We stay in cash. Operational: AVOID never enters the acquire pool at any conviction; so no sell can originate; adjusted conviction 53 sits 12 points below the 65 floor. Three ACTIVE-block vetoes fire independently even if the label flipped - HL-2 falling-knife, HL-3 degenerate risk levels (Stop == Entry == Close, blank Target_Price - no risk-defined entry constructible), HL-4 forward-view over conviction (conviction pinned at a six-session high on a breakdown-family signal = confidence in a DOWN move). Caveat on HL-2: Target_12Week/Close is clamped at exactly 0.5701 on both book instruments, so the '43% below close' figure is an artifact - the veto is carried by HL-3/HL-4 and the breakdown label, not by the T12 number. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0); scorecard bias 0; f=0.30 (calib_1w null). Re-arm trigger: AVOID -> BUY/STRONG BUY with conv >= 65, a usable stop meaningfully below entry, and a 2nd confirming bullish print - never a one-bar oversold bounce. With the T12 clamp degenerate, use a reclaimed-and-held EMA20/EMA50 as the forward-view substitute. Seventh consecutive AVOID print. · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 66.82 | WATCH | 66.82 | 66.82 | n/a | n/a | 38.09 (-43.0%) | The 2x Samsung ETF fell 2.1% to 66.82, its third straight decline (-7.8% over three sessions), and remains AVOID on the same FailedBreakout_Down_20D breakdown signal - we neither buy it nor own it. Conviction ticked back up, but it did so on a down day while the 12-week view slipped again, which reads as a firmer avoid rather than a softening one: the model is getting more confident about a move that is heading down. The Korea-wide memory selloff triggered by Broadcom's AI read-through confirms the setup. As a leveraged ETF it has no statements to value, so valuation cannot argue the other way. We stay in cash. Operational: AVOID is a disqualification label, not a weak rank; so no sell origination. HL-2 (falling-knife), HL-3 (Stop == Entry == Close, blank Target_Price) and HL-4 (rising conviction into a falling forward view on a breakdown family) each veto independently. HL-2's T12 leg is degraded by the 0.5701 clamp artifact - carry the veto on HL-3/HL-4. RSI slid 43.1 -> 42.2; the decline decelerated but momentum did not turn. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0); scorecard bias 0; f=0.30. Seventh consecutive AVOID print. · news |
| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. Both instruments in this two-name book - the 2x SK Hynix and 2x Samsung ETFs - fell again and both remain rated AVOID, so the book stays 100% in cash at HKStaying flat was worth roughly HKof avoided drawdown versus being fully at yesterday's close, and about HKacross the last three sessions. Seventh consecutive zero-action session. Operational: 0 ACQUIRE + 0 DISPOSE. No open GTC queues to reprice or withdraw; no stop breaches; no trades detected; no unledgered drift. Valuation permanently blind (both rows NA_ETF; regeneration skipped per Step 3, CSV 60 days old). Scorecard 115 entries / 0 graded / calib_1w None -> f=0.30 mandatory; no cell can reach the actionability floor because the book has never taken a trade. Overlay stale 60d and down-weighted (its 7709 'below 101 -> full exit' line sits 67% above market on an unheld name). Event Horizon fresh via hk parent fallback: today's 03-Sep Broadcom Q3 read-through resolved bearish for Korean memory beta; next up 04-Sep 1347 HSI inclusion and 07-Sep US payrolls, both position-management stances with zero positions. Step 8a learnings review NOT run. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.