Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 35.36 | WATCH | 35.36 | 35.36 | n/a | n/a | 20.16 (-43.0%) | The 2x SK Hynix ETF snapped back 5.9% to 35.36 after three straight down days, but the engine still rates it AVOID on a FailedBreakout_Down_20D breakdown signal, so there is nothing to buy and nothing held to sell. The bounce was sold: it ran to 37.10 intraday and closed near the bottom of its range on lighter volume, and it failed to reclaim even its 5-day average - a rebound inside a downtrend rather than a base, with the price still a third below its 200-day line. No dated news catalyst was found to support the move, and leveraged ETFs have no financial statements to value, so nothing argues the other side. We stay in cash. Operational: eighth consecutive AVOID print; AVOID never enters the acquire pool at any conviction; so no sell can originate. Adjusted conviction 63 is the book's window high and sits only 2 points below the 65 floor - but the floor is necessary-not-sufficient (HL-2) and three vetoes fire independently even if the label flipped: HL-2 one-bar oversold flip off a crash with no second confirming print; HL-3 degenerate risk levels (Stop == Entry == Close 35.36, blank Target_Price - no risk-defined entry constructible); HL-4 forward-view over conviction (window-high conviction on a breakdown family = confidence in a DOWN move; trend pillar flat at 48 while the rise came entirely from momentum and volatility mean-reverting). Caveat on HL-2: Target_12Week/Close is clamped at 0.5701 on both book instruments even through today's up day, so the '43% below close' figure is an artifact - carry the veto on HL-3/HL-4, the breakdown label and the failed EMA5 reclaim. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0); scorecard bias 0; f=0.30 (calib_1w null). Re-arm trigger: AVOID -> BUY/STRONG BUY with conv >= 65, a usable stop meaningfully below entry, and a 2nd confirming bullish print. With the T12 clamp degenerate, use a reclaimed-and-held EMA20 (38.72, 8.7% above today's close) as the forward-view substitute. |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 70.50 | WATCH | 70.50 | 70.50 | n/a | n/a | 40.18 (-43.0%) | The 2x Samsung ETF rose 5.5% to 70.50 off a three-session slide, and remains AVOID on the same FailedBreakout_Down_20D breakdown signal - we neither buy it nor own it. The most telling detail is that its trend reading actually deteriorated on an up day: the entire conviction improvement came from momentum and volatility snapping back after a washout, not from any repair in the trend itself. It closed in the lower third of its range on 39% lighter volume, never reclaimed its 5-day average, and still trades well below its 200-day line. No dated catalyst was retrievable to explain the bounce, and as a leveraged ETF it has no statements to value. We stay in cash. Operational: eighth consecutive AVOID; AVOID is a disqualification label, not a weak rank; so no sell origination; adjusted conviction 60 is 5 points below the floor. HL-2 (one-bar dead-cat, no 2nd confirming print), HL-3 (Stop == Entry == Close 70.50, blank Target_Price) and HL-4 each veto independently - and HL-4 is textbook here: conviction while the trend pillar fell and volatility jumped. VWAP distance still -6.41%; close 6.8% below EMA20 (75.64) and 17.0% below EMA200 (84.89). HL-2's T12 leg is degraded by the 0.5701 clamp artifact - carry the veto on HL-3/HL-4. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0); scorecard bias 0; f=0.30. |
| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. Both instruments in this two-name book - the 2x SK Hynix and 2x Samsung ETFs - bounced hard, up 5.9% and 5.5%, but both remain rated AVOID on breakdown signals, so the book stays 100% in cash at HKBeing flat cost roughly HKof forgone bounce today; across the last four sessions it is still worth about HKof avoided drawdown, because both names are net lower over the window. Declining a falling knife means declining its dead-cat too - that is the cost of the rule and it is priced in. Eighth consecutive zero-action session. Operational: 0 ACQUIRE + 0 DISPOSE. No open GTC queues to reprice or withdraw; no stop breaches; no trades detected; no unledgered drift. Valuation permanently blind (both rows NA_ETF; regeneration skipped per Step 3, CSV 61 days old). Scorecard 118 entries / 0 graded / calib_1w None -> f=0.30 mandatory; no cell can reach the actionability floor because the book has never taken a trade. counterfactuals.optional_trim n=22 unchanged and mis-signed for a cash-only book (HL-advisory: it reads as avoided-buy discipline that paid, not a trim that cost). Overlay stale 61d and down-weighted (its 7709 'below 101 -> full exit' line sits 65% above market on an unheld name). Event Horizon fresh via hk parent fallback with NO event touching either book instrument: today's 1347 Hua Hong HSI inclusion executed at the close (not held); ahead 07-Sep US payrolls + 1347 inclusion-effective unwind, 10-Sep Apple keynote / China CPI-PPI / TSMC monthly revenue, 14-Sep US August CPI (largest single event in the window). All are position-management stances with zero positions. News: none found - no dated 03/04-Sep coverage retrievable, so no catalyst asserted. Step 8a learnings review NOT run. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.