Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 41.06 | WATCH | 41.06 | 41.06 | n/a | n/a | 23.40 (-43.0%) | The 2x SK Hynix ETF exploded 16.1% higher to 41.06 - its biggest single day ever - reclaiming its 5-, 10- and 20-day averages for the first time in weeks, closing in the top fifth of its range on the heaviest volume of the window. The move is genuine and explained: Korean chipmakers rallied hard on 07-Sep with SK Hynix itself up 8.1% and the Kospi up 4.6% on renewed AI-memory demand, and the ETF tracked that exactly. We still do not buy it, for a reason that has nothing to do with direction: the engine rates it AVOID on a breakdown signal, and - more decisively - the model prints its stop-loss at exactly the entry price with no profit target, so there is no way to build a risk-defined position in an instrument that swings 10% a day. We would be buying with no floor under us. The name also remains 21% below its 200-day trend line, so this is a sharp rally inside a downtrend, not a repaired uptrend. We stay in cash and wait for a usable stop and a bullish label. Operational: NINTH consecutive AVOID; AVOID is a disqualification label, never enters the acquire pool at any conviction (Step 5); so no sell can originate. Adj conviction 63 (flat d/d) is 2 pts below the 65 floor - but the floor is moot while the label is AVOID. HL-3 is the BINDING veto: Stop == Entry == Close 41.06, blank Target_Price, ATR/price 9.9%. HL-4: conviction on a breakdown-family label reads as confidence in a DOWN move. HL-2 re-arm: 2nd-strong-close leg NOW MET, bullish-label leg unmet, T12 leg inert (T12/Close clamp pinned 0.56990 for a 5th session - Systemic finding 1). Pillars trend 48 flat / momentum / volatility netted to zero conviction change on a +16% day (Systemic finding 3). Re-arm trigger: bullish label + adj conv >=65 + a REAL ATR stop below entry + a 2nd confirming bullish print; watch EMA20 38.50 as the give-back level and EMA200 52.25 (+27%) as the trend objective. Horizon: 7709 is tagged in SIX events in the next 10 sessions - 09-10 TSMC revenue and 09-11 Oracle + Korea 1-10 Sep semi exports (both add-after-print, Korea band anchored on 7709), then 09-14 CPI, a coin-flip FOMC 09-16/17 and a live BoJ hike 09-18 where the horizon names 7709 the book's top carry-unwind casualty. Stage any future re-arm AFTER the 09-11 prints. val_adj 0 (NA_ETF, valuation blind by construction); scorecard_bias 0 (0 graded, ever); f=0.30 per L5/HL-6. · news |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 77.88 | WATCH | 77.88 | 77.88 | n/a | n/a | 44.39 (-43.0%) | The 2x Samsung ETF rose another 10.5% to 77.88, a two-day gain of 16.6%, and this is the strongest buy case this book has ever declined: its conviction score jumped to 76, clearing the 65 threshold by a wide margin, and its trend reading actually improved for the first time in the window - reversing the exact deterioration we cited against it on Friday. It reclaimed all three short-term averages, closed near the day's high on double the prior volume, and the rally has a verified cause: Samsung Electronics rose 5.7% in Seoul on 07-Sep as Korean AI-memory names surged. We are still not buying, and the reason is mechanical rather than a disagreement with the tape: the engine labels it AVOID on a breakdown signal, and it prints a stop-loss identical to the entry price with no target - there is no risk-defined trade to construct. On a leveraged fund that moves 8% a day, entering with no defined loss floor is the one thing this mandate does not do. It also sits 8% below its 200-day line, which is now within reach and is the level that would confirm a genuine trend repair. We stay in cash. Operational: NINTH consecutive AVOID. Adj conviction 76 CLEARS the floor by 11 pts - the first clean clear with a repairing trend pillar rather than the 07-17 cv88 STRONG SELL configuration - but HL-2 says the floor is necessary-not-sufficient and Step 5 keeps AVOID out of the buy pool at any score; HL-4 reads high conviction on a breakdown family as stronger confidence in DOWN. HL-3 is the binding veto: Stop == Entry == Close 77.88, blank Target_Price, ATR/price 8.3% - the veto would fire identically on a bullish label, which is the point (Systemic finding 2). so no sell origination. T12 44.39 is 43% below close with the T12/Close clamp pinned at 0.56998 - inert, not informative. Re-arm trigger: bullish label + adj conv >=65 (already met) + a REAL ATR stop below entry + a 2nd confirming bullish print; EMA20 75.12 is the give-back level, EMA200 84.65 (+8.7%) the trend objective. Not tagged in the horizon (parent hk does not hold it) but carries the same Korean-memory and 09-18 BoJ yen-carry read-through as 7709. val_adj 0 (NA_ETF); scorecard_bias 0; f=0.30 per L5/HL-6. · news |
| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today, but this was the closest call in the book's history. Both instruments - the 2x SK Hynix and 2x Samsung ETFs - surged again on a broad Korean AI-memory rally, up 16.1% and 10.5%, and every objection we raised on Friday has now inverted: both closed near their highs instead of their lows, on expanding rather than falling volume, reclaiming their short-term averages, with a real dated catalyst behind the move. One of them cleared our conviction threshold outright. We still bought nothing, because the model is publishing a stop-loss identical to the entry price on both names, leaving no way to define the downside on instruments that move 8-10% a day. That is a plumbing failure in our own tooling, not a view on the sector, and we are recording it as the top fix for this book. The cost was real: staying in cash forwent roughly HKtoday and about HKacross the two-day bounce, and it has erased the HKof avoided drawdown we booked on Friday. The book remains 100% in cash at HKOperational: 0 ACQUIRE + 0 DISPOSE, ninth consecutive zero-action session. No open GTC queues to reprice or withdraw; no stop breaches; no trades detected; no unledgered drift; the two monitor warnings are the expected all-cash CASH row artefacts. Valuation permanently BLIND (both rows NA_ETF; regeneration SKIPPED per Step 3, CSV 64 days old) -> val_adj 0, quality gate off, size modifier 1.0x. Scorecard 121 entries / 0 graded / calib_1w None -> f=0.30 mandatory (L5/HL-6); no cell can reach the actionability floor because the book has never taken a trade - and per Systemic finding 4 the identified reason is that no row has ever printed a usable stop, so ADR-0003 tuning should be sequenced AFTER the exits fix. counterfactuals.optional_trim n=22 unchanged and still MIS-SIGNED for a cash-only book (HL-advisory), and note its sample is entirely July crash-leg vintage - today is the first evidence the same discipline can forgo a large gain. Overlay STALE (2026-07-05, 64 days; its 7709 'below 101 -> full exit' line is 59% out of the money and unheld). Event Horizon FRESH (hk parent fallback, regenerated today): 7709 tagged in SIX of the window's events - 09-10 TSMC, 09-11 Oracle + Korea semi exports (add-after-print), 09-14 US CPI, 09-16/17 coin-flip FOMC (~49.4% odds of a 25bp HIKE), 09-18 live BoJ hike naming 7709 the book's top carry-unwind casualty. Step 8a learnings review NOT run (skipped by instruction). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.