HK Semiconductors — End-of-Day Verdict
2 TRIMS CATL 30% / YOFC 50% (shared, once via hk) + 7709/Hua Hong/SMIC TRAIL + NO ACQUIRE (Kingboard withdrawn). Korea 2x-ETF unwind stabilizing (mechanical, not fundamental). Trims free ~HK; unchanged HK.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3750 | CATL | 675.50 | SELL 30% | 675.50 | 655.00 | n/a | n/a | 690.58 (+2.2%) | SHARED w/ hk (300) - execute once via hk EOD; armed+fired tick(d) 2x NO TRADE; PROFIT_ARMED-at-loss artifact -> target-exhausted de-risk, keep 70% (fundamentals brightening) |
| 6869 | YOFC | 201.20 | SELL 50% | 201.20 | 186.00 | n/a | n/a | 212.99 (+5.9%) | SHARED w/ hk (500) - execute once; board lot may be 500 -> hk full-exit vs hold per lot math; cv-collapse to NO TRADE + loss = signal-based de-risk; 12wk +5.9% marginal -> keep half |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 116.80 | HOLD | 116.80 | 102.50 | n/a | 173.74 (+48.8%) | 166.44 (+42.5%) | leveraged-ETF trim-not-dump; overlay override keep-50% active; full-exit criteria (conv>=70+3prints+below-stop OR breakdown) not met · news |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 178.00 | HOLD | 178.00 | 171.95 | n/a | 218.33 (+22.7%) | 253.65 (+42.5%) | stale-state breach only; close 178 above model stop 171.95; SHARED w/ hk |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 204.80 | HOLD | 204.80 | 186.00 | n/a | 254.54 (+24.3%) | 291.84 (+42.5%) | HOLD cv71 recovered, FailedBreakdown_Up, +13%, 12wk +43% |
| 0981 | SMIC | 77.60 | HOLD | 77.60 | 75.53 | n/a | 91.39 (+17.8%) | 95.37 (+22.9%) | stale-state breach only; close 77.6 above model stop 75.53 |
| 0992 | Lenovo | 21.30 | HOLD | 21.30 | 20.50 | n/a | 28.28 (+32.8%) | 30.35 (+42.5%) | close below model stop 22.01 but 12wk +42% -> L2 not triggered (needs neg 12wk); hold small line |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
1 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.