Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9988 | BABA-SW | 116.90 | NO ACTION | 104.11 | 96.85 | 106.11 (+1.9%) | 110.77 (+6.4%) | 92.71 (-10.9%) | The book's sole floor-clearing print (BUY cv73, Buy_Rank #1) and on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell for once, yet REJECTED on a negative model forward view + sub-1 R:R -- the model itself projects Alibaba lower. (1) Both targets sit below the 116.90 close: Target_4w 110.77 (-5.2%) and Target_12Week 92.71 (-20.7%), the latter even below the model's own Est_Low 106.35 (a defective/inverted 12wk projection, book note B falling-knife tell). (2) The entry 104.11 is a deep sub-close pullback limit (~= VWAP 102.66; price sits +13.87% above VWAP, ED -2.2 ATR) -- it only fills on a ~11% drop, and even then the 12wk target 92.71 is -11% below the entry. (3) R:R < 1: reward to T4 6.66 vs risk to stop 7.26 = 0.92. A stretched-above-VWAP name whose forward view is negative; withheld, not queued (a GTC at 104.11 with a 12wk model target below the entry is a negative-EV order). Ledgered direction=none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what skipping cost. f=0.30 (L5). |
| — | hktech book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO ACTION -- 0 ACQUIRE / 0 DISPOSE; confirms/extends the 07-13, 07-14 and 07-15 NO ACTION, FOURTH consecutive session in 100% cash. Sell pool empty (zero holdings). The only floor-clearing buy print (9988 BABA BUY cv73, PullbackBuy_VWAP #1 -- the L1-favored cell for once) is rejected on a negative model forward view: both Target_4w (110.77) and Target_12Week (92.71) sit BELOW the 116.90 close (T12 -20.7%, below the model's own Est_Low 106.35), the entry 104.11 is a deep sub-close limit needing an ~11% drop to fill, and R:R is 0.92 < 1 -- a negative-EV setup, not queued. No other name clears the 65 floor (1347 cv55 extended, 0100 WATCH cv60 unusable-stop falling knife, 0992 cv48, rest AVOID/WATCH/NO TRADE). The 07-15-rejected 0100 faded cv90 -> WATCH cv60, validating the reject. HKdry fully retained. Valuation technical-only (NA_CCY, quality gate off, val_adj 0). Overlay stale (11d). f=0.30 (calib_1w -0.45). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.450 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.