Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 9618 | JD-SW | 124.10 | BUY — QUEUED @123.73 | 123.73 | 112.52 | 130.46 (+5.4%) | 146.15 (+18.1%) | 136.88 (+10.6%) | JD has broken out to a fresh 20-day high on nearly three times its recent volume, closing at 124.10 and reclaiming its 200-day average for the first time in a month - the strongest signal this book has produced since inception, at conviction 84 against a 65 floor. Crucially the model now projects the shares higher on both horizons (+18% over four weeks, +11% over twelve) while the shares trade near our estimate of intrinsic value on a passing quality screen, and the suggested stop sits a wide 9% below entry - resolving the one objection that kept us out for four straight sessions, when the stop was too tight to survive normal daily noise. Risking 11.21 a share to make 22.42 is a 2-to-1 proposition, and the price has not run away from the entry. We buy on a stop order so that a weak open simply never fills. Learnings applied: the 07-27 re-arm trigger (fresh BUY cv>=65 + forward view intact + stop >= ~0.5 ATR) fired on every clause - stop is now 3.18 ATR vs 0.31 yesterday. HT-4 forward-view screen PASSES for the first time since inception (T4 +17.8%, T12 +10.3% vs close). HT-3 does not apply - this is the BreakoutUp exit family with genuine 2.00 R:R, not the pullback family's 0.92 config artifact. L1 breakout discount and the BreakoutUp_20D|buy cell being 0-for-1 (that one sample is THIS name's 07-21 failure: cv69 -> NO TRADE cv0 in one session, expired unfilled) are expressed as a 0.5x discretionary size haircut, NOT a reject - today's print is stronger on every axis that failed then (cv84 vs 69, STRONG BUY vs BUY, portion 74.69 vs 28.39, close 124.10 clears the 07-21 high 123.40, volume 14.2M vs 5.0M). L6 does not bite - no earnings inside the 10-day horizon. L8: executes at the 07-29 open; reprice if it gaps >~1.5%. Sizing: 74.69% x 2,000,000 x 20% = 298,760 full slot; size_mod 1.0x (UNDERVALUED+Quality_Pass would permit 1.25x but MoS is knife-edge +0.0067 on a 4-day-stale price, ~-0.04 marked to today's close, so upsize declined); 0.5x haircut -> 149,380 -> /123.73 = 1,207 -> ( x 50) = HK7.4% of book. Risk to stop HK = 0.67% of book. max_position_pct and both non-binding. No DCF annotation: DCF_per_share 185.65 sits well above the 136.88 12wk target. Event Horizon names no event for 9618; FOMC 07-29 / Politburo 07-30 / PMI 07-31 are indirect and argue for the half-size, not a skip. Data caution: a cached Yahoo quote snippet showed 115.10 for 07-27 vs the scan's settled 119.20 - L4 makes the settled scan close authoritative, and the buy-stop is self-protecting if the tape is materially lower. WITHDRAW if conviction drops below 65 before fill, or on expiry 2026-07-31. · news |
| 0148 | KINGBOARD HLDG | 42.22 | WATCH | 42.22 | 33.16 | 48.88 (+15.8%) | 64.43 (+52.6%) | 24.07 (-43.0%) | Kingboard triggered a buy signal today, but it is a bounce in a collapse rather than a turn: the shares have fallen 26% in six sessions to 42.22 and trade far below their 20-, 50- and 100-day averages, and the company fails our quality screen on profitability and cash flow while still pricing in growth. The model's own twelve-week projection of 24.07 is 43% BELOW today's price - it is recommending a purchase it simultaneously forecasts will nearly halve. We do not buy falling knives on an oversold reading alone. Learnings applied: quality gate hard-blocks new entries on Quality_Pass=False (dispositive here - the book holds nothing, so no ADD exemption applies); HT-4 forward-view screen fails badly on the 12wk leg; note B (the HK OversoldBounce/ReversalUp buy pool with negative 12wk is the falling-knife shape this book is written to refuse). Momentum 29 / Volatility 21 pillars are weak. Fourth axis: the printed 4wk target 64.43 (+52.6%) sits far outside the model's own Est_High of 47.73 - an artifact, not an objective (logged as systemic finding 2). adj conviction 66 - 1 = 65, exactly at the floor, and rejected regardless. RE-ARM: Quality_Pass=True AND Target_12Week above close AND price back above EMA50. · news |
| 2318 | AAC TECH | 57.10 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 51.94 | The buy signal we declined for four consecutive sessions has now disappeared entirely - AAC prints no trade at zero conviction. Our reason for passing was that the model forecast the shares lower on both the four- and twelve-week horizons even as it flagged a buy; that contradiction has resolved by the signal dissolving rather than by the forecasts improving. The book never paid 56.65 for a setup that never became sound. Learnings applied: HT-4 (forward view screened before the conviction floor) called this correctly four times running; L1 caution on extended pullback entries. Conviction trail ->. Dropped as an active candidate. RE-ARM: cv>=65 AND Target_4w/Target_12Week both above close AND entry not extended. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | AI - HK Tech | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The book takes its first position since inception: a half-size stake in JD.com, which today became the first name to satisfy every one of our entry conditions at once - a strong breakout signal, projected gains over both the four- and twelve-week horizons, a sensible valuation on a passing quality screen, and a stop wide enough to survive ordinary volatility. We commit HKabout 7% of the portfolio, and keep the remaining HKin reserve. That restraint is deliberate: eight other names in the book are flagged as active breakdowns with rising conviction, and a Federal Reserve decision, three chip-sector earnings reports and a Chinese policy meeting all land within four sessions. One breakout does not make a bull market. Ends the eleven-session 100%-cash streak. Sell pool empty by construction (zero holdings). Second floor-clearer 0148 hard-blocked by the quality gate. Nothing pending to reconcile coming in; monitor clean (CASH no_stop only). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.450 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.