Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 25.16 | BUY | 25.16 | 23.76 | 26.13 (+3.9%) | 28.40 (+12.9%) | 34.55 (+37.3%) | Lenovo is the standout name in this book right now: it has just been picked to help build Saudi Arabia's sovereign AI infrastructure alongside Napster and DETASAD under Vision 2030, backed by a US$2bn investment from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, a new R&D centre in Riyadh and expanded regional manufacturing. The shares reversed hard off a one-day breakdown and closed near the day's high on heavy volume, with trend and momentum among the strongest readings in the portfolio and every moving average now reclaimed. Crucially, it is also the only candidate whose 12-week price projection still sits comfortably BELOW our own estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth, so we are paying up for growth far less here than anywhere else in the book, on the second-highest quality score of the twenty-one names we follow. Operational: BUY cv76 -> adj 74 (val_adj -2 on MoS_FV -0.3925; scorecard_bias 0 - the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy cell is n=1 and report-only). Buy_Rank 1; the sole bullish-actionable row in the whole snapshot. HT-4 passes on every leg (T4 +12.9%, T12 +37.3%, R:R 2.31, definable stop). No discretionary L1 haircut applied on top of the engine's own 28.39% (vs 74.69% on 0700 yesterday) - halving again would double-count the family discount; risk-to-stop is 0.28% of book vs the 0.75% accepted on 0700. Stop 23.76 = today's low = the failed-breakdown pivot, but only 0.86 ATR wide, so expect an elevated stop-out probability; a stop-out is a cheap refutation and re-entry on a fresh print is permitted. EX-DIV CAVEAT (advisory, single-source): 0992 is reported to go ex-HKon 2026-08-05, the execution date - execute at the open regardless and do NOT read a ~1.3% ex-div mark-down as an L8 gap-down invalidation; net off the 0.337 before applying the 1.5% gap test (ex-div-adjusted entry ~24.82, stop ~23.42). HT-6 checked and CLEAR: the US$2bn convertible was priced in June 2026 and is the cause of the +104% 90-day re-rating, not an unpriced overhang on top of it - unlike the 2513 case. Own Q1 FY27 results land 2026-08-13 (6 sessions out) and are ABSENT from the hk-parent horizon file; the hold-through-earnings decision belongs to the 08-12 EOD run. Board lot 2,000 (not the config's generic 100). T4 28.40 exceeds Est_High 27.444 and the 52W high 27.42 - risk objective, not a forecast. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | hktech | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | One buy, no sells. After fifteen straight sessions entirely in cash, the book is putting roughly 5% of its capital to work in Lenovo - the only name in the portfolio today that is simultaneously rising, high quality, and still priced below our own estimate of its intrinsic worth. Nothing is being sold because nothing is owned. The remaining 95% stays in cash, and yesterday's conditional Tencent order has been cancelled unfilled. Operational: buy pool contained exactly one bullish-actionable row out of 21 (1 BUY, 3 WATCH, 11 AVOID, 6 NO TRADE). Sell pool empty by construction - zero holdings, no stop breaches, no Exit_Warning codes, no PROFIT_ARMED positions. ANTICIPATE slot empty (0 BUY - ANTICIPATE prints across the last 3 snapshots). Commits HKof HKdry; HKretained.. Scorecard: graded 6, calib_1w -0.814 -> f=0.30 mandatory (L5); all cells below the n>=5 floor so scorecard_bias 0 everywhere (HT-2). Fairvalue fresh (FetchedAt 2026-08-03). Overlay 30 days stale and inert. Step 8a not run (batch mode). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
6 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.814 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.